Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Alfred Dunhill Championship preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Alfred Dunhill Links Championship

3pts win Tyrrell Hatton at 14/1 (General), 3pts win Alex Noren at 18/1 (General)

1.5pts e.w. Matthew Jordan at 40/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Filippo Celli at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)

1pt e.w. Brandon Stone at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)

1pt e.w. MJ Daffue at 140/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook | Free bets

The Alfred Dunhill Links Championship is unique on the DP World Tour: the only multi-course event, the only pro-am, the only one, in fact, with a precisely $5million purse. It is not without its detractors and there are pitfalls baked into its formula, including a TV broadcast which shows celebrities hitting bad shots and a pace of play that would be better suited to a film set.

There are joys, too, chief among which is an annual opportunity to cast eyes over Carnoustie, St Andrews, and Kingsbarns, three of the finest links courses anywhere in the world.

Links golf is fickle and wherever you personally rank the Open Championship among the quartet of men's majors, it isn't the one with the strongest roll-of-honour. Nature, the idea of ball hitting ground and there being no certainty of what happens next, won't allow for that. It's likely Brian Harman and Ryan Fox never win the Masters, but they have both earned the title Champion Golfer of the Year because, on that week, their own brilliance met with fortune and circumstance and guaranteed each a place in the history books.

Many great golfers overcome it – Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods, Tom Watson, Jack Nicklaus, and so on – but the Open is the hardest major championship to win, the hardest to predict, simply because for all its inherent purity, its humps and hollows, links golf is a great leveller.

And so we get to the incongruity of a three-course, links tournament played at snail's pace among actors, businesspeople and sports stars, and the fact that Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Fitzpatrick and Robert MacIntyre have between them won more than half of the last decade's worth of renewals. MacIntyre was no more than 16/1 last year, Hatton about 9/1 for the latest of his trio of titles, Fitzpatrick somewhere in-between.

But look at what nearly happened: Nicolas Colsaerts nearly won at 500/1, Matthew Southgate nearly captured his first DP World Tour title, Callum Shinkwin nearly beat Ryan Fox and Alex Noren, Joakim Lagergren nearly won the thing multiple times. Look too at what did, before these big names took over: Oliver Wilson was 500/1 or more, David Howell 125/1, Victor Perez 100/1, Danny Willett also 100/1.

So what do we know for sure, except that Hatton, Fitzpatrick and MacIntyre are in the field alongside Tommy Fleetwood, whereas Race to Dubai leader Patrick Reed no longer is, preferring instead to play in Spain next week?

Well, that when the weather is nasty, 'Carnastie' is actually where you want to be. In relative terms, it does not get that much nastier, whereas the habitually low-scoring Kingsbarns can become royally difficult, St Andrews likewise. Some believe there's an edge to be had in playing the weekend at the Old Course, but that's as much about strength-of-splits as anything. Much more important is to avoid being in the wrong weather at the wrong time.

We also know that this has always been a good event for long drivers. In 2025, Mikael Lindberg, Kristoffer Reitan and Angel Ayora finished T5 with the likes of Freddy Schott, Grant Forrest, Brooks Koepka and Alejandro del Rey not much further behind. Colsaerts would've been a shock champion but had been placed a year earlier. David Puig defied a lack of links experience to be fourth; Shinkwin and Niklas Norgaard and Forrest and Peter Uihlein and Tom Lewis have all had a good look at winning, too.

I would still prefer links and coastal form above all else – here, at the Scottish and Irish Opens, places like Hillside and Fairmont St Andrews, a few courses in the Netherlands, one in particular in the Middle East (Doha), Yas Links too, and almost anywhere by the sea – and the one thing that ties together most champions is that: a proven ability to play the game the way these courses demand it to be played.

Perez won at Yas Links and beat Fox at Bernardus. MacIntyre won at The Renaissance where Fitzpatrick lost a play-off. Lucas Bjerregaard was 16th at Portrush and finished alongside Fox. Fitzpatrick has been 20th and fourth there, Hatton sixth alongside Willett then 16th too. Fox and Southgate have Birkdale form and Branden Grace shot 62 there. Olesen was ninth at Lytham and 12th at Carnoustie. Paul Lawrie, the very first winner of this in 2001, had won the Open at Carnoustie. His successor, Padraig Harrington, went on to do the same in 2007.

With a generally good forecast my approach is rather Countdown-like: two from the top and not quite any other four, but a mixed bunch behind the favourites.

First, I'm going to give TYRRELL HATTON another go after he proved most disappointing in the British Masters and then again in Ireland, the latter especially costly having been weighing up him and Shane Lowry pre-tournament.

There isn't much else to say here, to be frank, but his level of form in this event is extraordinary; so extraordinary, that he could easily be challenging for favouritism. Hatton has won this three times in his last eight appearances after an inauspicious start and it could've been six: he was runner-up in 2018, 2021 and 2025, too.

Seventh and 15th on the other two occasions, he's not played poorly in the Dunhill Links for more than a decade and that's not changed when he's turned up in poor form, which he did in 2019 and 2021. In 2018 he was playing just OK, in 2017 he'd only recently found something after a rotten summer, and his breakthrough in 2016 followed a run of 17-MC-MC-45 after a good July.

All of this is right there in the form book but so is a poor run since he was second in LIV's UK event back in summer. However, and this to me is the important part, his approach play was exceptional at Wentworth, second only to Rory McIlroy. It had been good at the Belfry too and with his putting also improved, it was only a collection of destructive tee shots which undermined his performance in the BMW PGA Championship.

More of the same could be problematic but there's a good deal more space across these three courses and while my first instinct was to back ALEX NOREN each-way, on reflection I'd rather split that into two win-only bets and include Hatton, for better or worse.

Noren has done everything but win this and his form figures when playing the Dunhill Links over the last decade read 11-15-12-2-12, the runner-up finish coming at the hands of Ryan Fox when he couldn't buy a putt late on Sunday.

Twice a winner both at Wentworth and in the British Masters, plus champion of both the Scottish and Welsh Open, Noren loves playing in the UK and he said so last time out when defying a poor opening round to finish 15th in the BMW PGA. That was his first appearance in a month and there were some similarities with the performance of Fitzpatrick, who subsequently dominated in France.

Noren had previously gone 7-3-37 following a top-20 finish in the Open but rather than represent a backwards step, the latter effort came at a massive golf course which favoured long drivers. Again, we saw several players take notable steps up back under more suitable conditions, including Wentworth winner JJ Spaun and contender Aaron Rai, and Noren ought to be so much more effective back here.

He was involved in the Adare Manor team-building trip with several other potential Ryder Cup players and I do sense that Noren, vice captain at Bethpage despite being in red-hot form at the time, has eyes on one more go as a player. That bid can take off here in the Dunhill Links, playing a version of the game which has always elevated him, with the steady breeze from Friday onwards sure to suit too.

There are a clutch of other high-class options including Open contender Lucas Herbert and perhaps even Brooks Koepka, who has a sound record in this. Herbert though has been absent since LIV's final event and Koepka's game remains substandard, while the breeze that looks all but guaranteed should make this more nuanced than the likes of David Puig and Dean Burmester might appreciate.

It'll suit MATTHEW JORDAN down to the ground and I hope he can emulate Wilson, Hatton and Perez by lifting his first DP World Tour silverware on the famous 18th green at St Andrews.

Jordan is well known by now as an excellent links player having grown up playing on England's west coast, but it's worth highlighting just how much substance there is to this notion. Two top-10s in the Open, two in the Dunhill Links, one in the Nexo, second in Denmark, sixth at Fairmont St Andrews, fifth in Doha, fourth at HimmerLand and a top-20 in the Scottish Open are all relevant, and they're 10 of his best 20 performances to date.

That makes a breakthrough here more likely than the field strength might otherwise suggest and he has never been in greater control of his long-game than he is today. Since the DP World Tour returned from its summer break, Jordan has made five appearances, averaging 2.5 strokes-gained per round from tee-to-green and ranking inside the top five of that statistic on three separate occasions.

This is new territory for Jordan, who in the past struggled with his approach play at times, but that aspect of his game has improved almost beyond measure and leaves him needing to get the putter working again to get off the mark. It has been a bigger issue this year than any before – golf, eh? – but he putted well on slower, links greens in the Nexo, has done so here in the past, and may benefit from the kinder pin positions of a pro-am.

Jordan was badly out of sorts when 32nd last year, further underlining how suitable this tournament is for him as it was his best result anywhere in five months. Returning now with his game never better, his iron play elite in top-class company last time and his tee-to-green numbers among the best on Tour, this looks a golden opportunity to get in the mix.

In-form Guido Migliozzi is easy to like despite just a so-so record in this, especially as his irons are in good shape, but along with Alejandro del Rey I thought the prices quoted were short enough. Del Rey has a sneaky-good links profile, especially when he's played courses which allow a player to be aggressive, and I could see him making waves at St Andrews where he's shot 65 before. His approach play fired at Wentworth – that's usually his weakness – and he'll have more chances to attack here.

But better value can be found with FILIPPO CELLI, who fared even better than del Rey in the BMW PGA (sixth from the final group) and then backed that up with 20th in Paris, where he probably suffered a bit of a hangover in round one but played nicely thereafter.

Celli has now wrapped up his card for next year, no doubt a huge relief having fallen short in his rookie season in 2024, and he's a big talent who might be able to make a run at qualifying for the DP World Tour Championship over what appears to be a suitable fortnight to come.

There's a risk the well is running dry come Spain however and I prefer this event, as it was at St Andrews that he bagged the Silver Medal for leading amateur in the 2022 Open Championship, and when he came back two years later he missed the cut on the number having began the week with a seven-under 65 at the Old Course, despite putting poorly.

He'll need to show he can score at Kingsbarns and Carnoustie but an excellent 12th at Bernardus in the Netherlands bodes well and so does his HotelPlanner Tour win at The Dutch. When last the DP World Tour was there, links-loving Chris Wood was runner-up, Padraig Harrington finished fifth and Eddie Pepperell sixth, while the previous year saw Lagergren lead at halfway and St Andrews contender Paul Dunne also show up for the second time.

Celli coped well in the wind at Wentworth and had earlier this autumn been second alongside Jordan and former Irish Open winner Rasmus Hojgaard in Denmark, where links specialist Jacob Skov Olesen was ninth, so there have been plenty of hints that this ought to be a suitable assignment. Given that he's in excellent form ahead of it, I like prices of 80/1 and bigger.

Sam Bairstow has been a regular eye-catcher of late but he's done nothing in this and may not enjoy the pro-am element. He also has just two DP World Tour top-fives so far and while his Nexo performance (10th) was his best of the year, again it underlines that he tends to find a way to finish just outside of the places. Three times running he's been in the top dozen entering Sunday, three times he's failed to advance into the money.

Instead, I want to take a bit of a flier on MJ DAFFUE, a big-hitting South African who could surprise a few.

I remember hearing Daffue talk about his affection for links golf when he came through Final Qualifying for the Open this summer and he backed it up initially, starting well at the very highest level to lie fourth after round one and still close to the leaders at halfway.

Though outclassed in the end, it was enough to add substance to what he'd said and in a different way he did the same in the recent Nexo Championship in Aberdeen, where he was among the best ball-strikers in the field only to narrowly miss the cut.

In fact, that's been a theme at this level since the Open. Three times he's played on the DP World Tour, three times he's missed the cut, yet he's averaged almost two strokes-gained ball-striking per round (for a season, this would be about the best on the circuit) and simply hasn't been able to buy a putt.

Dropping back down to the HotelPlanner Tour last time, I can only assume that changed when he shot 23-under over the final three rounds to finish fourth. Daffue had been 104th after round one but defied that plus some of the easiest conditions faced all year to pass 100 players at a golf course which allowed him to be ultra-aggressive and bully the par-fives and short par-fours.

These courses are very different but they do offer similar opportunities to take things on at times and I was pleasantly surprised to see he's not only played in the event before, but was 27th back in 2021. Context is important here: at the time, he had no status and this was his standout performance of the year, moving him inside the world's top 800 versus a current ranking of 246th.

Daffue's best golf that week came at Carnoustie (69) and St Andrews (68), and I've no doubt his power-packed game is capable of taking advantage of Kingsbarns providing he's not unlucky with the weather.

He began this year without status again but quickly put that right with two wins on the HPT which mean he'll be graduating to the DP World Tour in November, but he's been very competitive on a handful of starts at this level too. Third in India saw him in the mix to the death, he was eighth at the Soudal Open, and another top-20 in Turkey plus 35th in Austria makes for a very solid bank of form.

But it's the state of his long-game, his power, and his flourishes of links form which have me excited by his prospects at massive odds.

I'd tend to side with players from the UK and Scandinavia wherever possible in tournaments like this, one which begins on October 1 in Scotland, but the forecast is for sunshine and 17 degrees when play begins and it won't dip much throughout.

That's enough of an excuse to row in with another South African, BRANDON STONE, after his top-10 finish last week in France.

There, Stone combined some improved putting with his customary strong ball-striking and but for a double-bogey at the 70th hole, he'd been booked for third behind a classy champion and among three more PGA Tour winners in Kristoffer Reitan, Matthieu Pavon and Michael Kim.

It was a good renewal of the tournament and while we go from the suburbs of Paris to the east coast of Scotland, Stone is a former Scottish Open winner who has best rounds of 65 at the Old Course, 66 at Kingsbarns, and 67 at Carnoustie.

More of those would make him a live one here and I like what we've seen from him since the DP World Tour returned in August. He's made five cuts in seven, is driving it well, looks sharp around the greens and, finally, seems to have found a little something for a return to his old putter.

"Went back to my old faithful putter a few weeks ago, probably six, seven weeks ago now, and days like today, she's the best relationship I have in my life," he said during the Open de France, before adding wryly: "But she has been temperamental at times, I won't lie to you."

That's a risk we'll take here under conditions which will suit, as he has some flashes of form in the event and after 10th place at Le Golf National two years ago, carried that form over for 17th in Spain, ninth in Korea, 19th at Yas Links, 18th in the Nedbank, and 24th at Leopard Creek. On a previous contending trip to Paris, he then went and finished runner-up in Portugal the following week.

Stone is a formerly class act who almost won in the wind in Oman and at 33, perhaps he can show that he has a lot still to offer. He's preferred to sluggers Lindberg and Niklas Moller, veteran Ross Fisher, and a few others who could drive their way into the mix in a fun event to take us into autumn.

Posted at 19:00 BST on 28/09/26

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