Dave Tindall picks out his best final-round bets for the action at Royal Lytham, where the AIG Women's Open is on the line.
Golf betting tips: Women's Open final round
3pts win Yealimi Noh at 13/5 (General)
1pt e.w. Esther Henseleit at 10/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
On a rollercoaster day in the third round of the 50th AIG Women’s Open at Royal Lytham, American Yealimi Noh emerged with a three-shot lead after following rounds of 67 and 70 with a two-under 69 to reach seven under-par.
In mid-afternoon, it looked like a case of how many shots would the massively in-form Haeran Ryu have over the field. The Korean stretched her overnight lead to four at one point, hitting nine-under for the tournament. But the winner of the last two women’s majors stumbled badly, dropping five strokes from that high watermark to end the day in a five-way tie for second spot.
That bunch also includes Germany’s Esther Henseleit, American Lucy Li, Thailand’s Jeeno Thitikul and Japan’s Shiho Kuwaki. Adding to what could be an intriguing Sunday, English hopes Lottie Woad and Charley Hull are also in the hunt. Woad is four back after a 70 while Hull overcame a sticky start to keep her dreams of a first major title alive with a 71 to end five off the pace. With world number one Nelly Korda eight back and surely no longer a threat from T16, the general consensus is that this really is up for grabs.
Let’s try and solve the puzzle by looking at what history tells us: both in terms of this event and past tournaments at Royal Lytham? The early good news for Noh is that, in the AIG Women’s Open, five of the last six winners had a piece of the 54-hole lead. The one exception was Lydia Ko, who was three shots behind before overtaking Jiyai Shin (a two-time Women’s Open winner at the time) with a closing 69 on a tough day of scoring at St Andrews in 2024. Ko was on a roll back then having won Olympic gold in Paris just two weeks earlier.
As for when Lytham played host, Georgia Hall was a shot behind Pornanong Phatlum (the Thai had missed six of her seven Open cuts and finished T27 in the other up to that point) before firing a Sunday 67 to win by two in 2018. The two previous Women’s Open winners at Lytham – Catriona Matthew in 2009 and Sherri Steinhauer in 2006 – both took three-shot leads into Sunday. Another good omen for Noh perhaps given her own three-stroke advantage.
The men? Perhaps this offers more hope to the chasing pack in terms of Lytham being a course where you play catch-up. Ernie Els was six behind with a lap to go when winning the 2012 Open. The South African cashed in after Adam Scott bogeyed each of the final four holes – a nod to how tough the closing stretch is here if the wind gets up. Bernhard Langer was three back before coming through to capture the Senior British Open at Lytham in 2019.
But although there are examples of deficits being made up, leaderboard position offers the best clue. Despite being six and three shots adrift respectively, both Els and Langer were in fifth spot. And here’s a pretty emphatic stat: focusing just on past editions of the Women’s Open going back to 2002 and 23 of the 24 winners were in the top five after Saturday’s action. That suggests we can narrow it down to the leader and the five players in tied second: Noh, Henseleit, Li, Thitikul, Ryu and Kuwaki.
The starting point and first bet just has to be the leader YEALIMI NOH. Going back to 2002, the 54-hole leader in the Women’s Open has prevailed 14 times out of 24 – that’s a significant 58% strike-rate. And let’s not forget that Noh is three clear. She has margin for error.
The doubters will note that the San Francisco-born 25-year-old has actually missed more cuts than she’s made in majors – 16 early exits in 30 starts. She has just two top-10s – third at the 2021 Evian and T9 in the 2024 Chevron. Adding to those rather slim pickings are 12th in this year’s Chevron and 13th in this event at Carnoustie in 2021.
But perhaps the main thing is not to be scared by what looks like a fairly poor record in the majors (she’s missed her last three cuts in this event). Ryan Fox had never managed a single top 10 in 28 majors before winning last month’s Open Championship. And check out the Wikipedia page of 2020 Open champion Sophia Popov. Since that win she’s missed all five cuts in this tournament and either side of that thunderclap moment the German hasn’t managed a single top 20 in any major.
Holes can be picked in Noh but, based on history, 13/5 on any 54-hole leader has to be snapped up – especially as she’s three clear. On the stats she ranks 3rd for Putts Per Round, 8th in Driving Distance, 12th in Fairways Hit and 14th for Greens In Regulation. That’s an impressive all-round display and suggests everything has come together when it matters most. A cool demeanour – she was particularly impressive down the stretch in round three – adds further confidence.
ESTHER HENSELEIT is Matt Cooper’s 70/1 pre-tournament tip. The German teed off over two hours before the final group on Saturday and charged up the leaderboard with a four-under 67 two finish three back.
As Matt wrote: “She’s a fan of links golf – T2 and T4 (last week) at Dundonald Links and T7 at Dumbarnie Links in the Scottish Open – but is yet to translate it into a solid result in this championship, but T23 at Royal Porthcawl was her best yet and she was T10 with 18 holes to play on the Old Course in 2024.”
Henseleit is 2nd for Fairways Hit and 4th for Greens In Regulation so far this week but is down in 43rd for Putts Per Round. However, after taking 34 putts in round one and 30 in round two, she needed just 26 swishes of the blade on Saturday. If the flatstick stays hot, the 2024 Olympic silver medallist could be Noh’s biggest threat. Take the 10/1 each-way.
As for Woad and Hull, they’re 12s and 25s respectively. Either winning their first major here would be fantastic for the home crowd. But Woad hasn’t been able to go through the gears so far (just eight birdies) while Hull’s ranking of 49th for Greens In Regulation is a concern.
Posted at 20:00 BST on 01/08/26
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