Dave Tindall picks out his best final-round bets for the action at TPC Scottsdale.
Golf betting tips: The American Express
3pts win Hideki Matsuyama at 11/4 (AK Bets)
1pt e.w. Michael Thorbjornsen at 16/1 (Ladbrokes 1/4 1,2,3)
The field became bunched in the third round of the WM Phoenix Open. Multiple players had a piece of the lead although there always seemed scope for someone or perhaps a couple of the pacesetter to create daylight on TPC Scottsdale’s back nine. It never happened.
In the end, two-time Phoenix winner Hideki Matsuyama emerged as the solo leader on 13-under after a 3-under 68. That put him a single stroke ahead of compatriot Ryo Hisatsune (70), Dane Nicolai Hojgaard (65), Korea’s in-form Si Woo Kim (66) and American Maverick McNealy (65). England’s Matt Fitzpatrick (67) is a further shot in arrears alongside home trio Michael Thorbjornsen (65), Jake Knapp (66) and Akshay Bhatia (67).
This has certainly been a decent tournament for chasers. Winding back to 2010, 11 of the 16 champions had ground to make up. That ranged from a single shot to Kyle Stanley’s dramatic Sunday surge in 2012 when he came from eight shots adrift to lift the silverware.
But it’s leaderboard position that is perhaps the biggest help when it comes to whittling down the most likely winners and 11 of the last 13 champions here at TPC Scottsdale were no worse than third with 18 holes to play.
Those two angles are interesting as the first one gives Scottie Scheffler some hope but the second almost shuts the door on him. Ah, yes, Scheffler. In danger of missing the cut after an out-of-character opening 73, the World No.1 has added middle rounds of 65-67 to sit five back with a round to play. Leaderboard-wise he’s in a tie for 16th.
We successfully backed Scheffler at 11/10 to come from off the pace to win The American Express a couple of weeks ago. There, he was tied second and just a shot off leader Si Woo Kim. But his task here is way more difficult, hence quotes of 25/1. With three payout places, there’s some hope but I think this is a week where he keeps his top 10 streak going - perhaps finishes seventh or eighth - and we move on. Scheffler ranks only 30th for SG: Approach and 23rd in Putting so the underlying numbers aren’t compelling.
While it may seem an obvious play, I will actually take the 11/4 with AK Bets about HIDEKI MATSUYAMA. As noted, 11 of the last 13 winners here were in the top three after 54 holes. The last three were all in the lead, Thomas Detry in front by five, Nick Taylor tied and Scheffler two clear.
Matsuyama’s best is up there with the very best in world golf. When he’s on, he’s on and we’ve seen it plenty of times on the PGA Tour, including twice here. Either side of his 2021 Masters triumph he logged five-shot victories in the WGC Bridgestone Invitational and ZOZO Championship while there were also early-season wins by three at Riviera in 2024 and The Sentry in 2025. In fact, five of his 10 regular PGA Tour wins have come in either January or February so this is a good time to catch him.
On the numbers Matsuyama ranks 2nd for Around The Green, 5th on Approach and 8th in Putting. That’s a very strong combination. He said later: “Having won here twice, it does help, but it's a brand new tournament and there is a lot of guys there at the top that will be battling. So I just need to play well. I like this course because even if I miss a fairway I can still find my ball. Unless it's in the cactuses.” While the opposition is strong, three of those in the final two groups - Hojgaard, Hisatsune and Thorbjornsen - have yet to win on the PGA Tour. McNealy has one victory while four-time winner Kim hasn’t won in over three years.
However, I do want to go into day four with another runner and the one I like at the prices is 16/1 MICHAEL THORBJORNSEN.
He’s tied sixth and just two back after a 65 yesterday. The former US Junior Amateur champion, now 24, looks destined for huge things and he’s already a two-time runner-up on the PGA Tour (2024 John Deere and 2025 Corales Puntacana).
Tied 18th at Torrey Pines was a nice marker and this week he ranks 1st for SG: Off The Tee and 6th Tee To Green. While his Approach (47th) and Putting (41st) stats for the week aren’t the best, Thorbjornsen ranked 5th and 9th respectively in those two categories in his third-round 65. “Feel like I played around the same as I did yesterday,” he said on Saturday, “but managed to make some putts, hit some shots a little closer.”
The huge and boisterous crowds will be even more of a factor on Super Bowl Sunday so I thought this was an interesting line from Thorbjornsen’s press conference: “I feel like TGL has definitely helped me focus when the crowd is loud and you kind of have people hanging over you. Really just focus on what you can control out there and just stick to your process. I wish I could putt as well as I did on these greens here as I do on TGL. I feel like it definitely helps giving me some confidence out here on the greens.”
Playing well in the TGL indoor league and bringing that to the PGA Tour continues to be a theme. Chris Gotterup shone for Atlanta Drive before going out and winning the Sony Open while Justin Rose registered the TGL’s first albatross and then romped to victory a few days later at Torrey Pines.
Given the loose, pantomime atmosphere of the indoor SoFi Center in Florida, it would make even more sense if a TGL player did well here. Indeed, it’s playing out with fellow TGLers Fitzpatrick (-11 and two back), Bhatia (-11) and Theegala (-8) also making an impression but Thorbjornsen goes in as the each-way pick.
Posted at 09:20 GMT on 08/02/26
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