Patrick Reed is back at the top of the leaderboard in Qatar, where we have two big-priced selections in the mix behind him. Ben Coley previews the final round.
Golf betting tips: Qatar Masters final round
2pts Antoine Rozner to win his two-ball at 4/5 (bet365, Betway)
1pt Rozner, Kobori and Reed to win their two-balls at 11/2 (bet365, Betway)
Selections in second (80/1) and fifth (30/1) going into the final round is a good place to be in after a very poor January, but there is one slight snag in the Qatar Masters: not only is the leader Patrick Reed, whose form figures read 1-2 and who hasn't been beaten in regulation play in either appearance so far this season, but the next best players in the field also feature in the top five.
Should either Daniel Hillier or Angel Ayora win it would be enormously frustrating, as we were on both in Bahrain last week. Hillier lost out by a shot there putting worse than he has in months. So far this week, he leads the field in putting. It's just been one of those runs.
Both Hillier and Ayora, plus my selections Jacob Skov Olesen and Oliver Lindell, had their chances boosted by Reed failing to birdie any of the closing three holes, with his three-putt par at the 18th keeping the door ajar.
Still, two shots is a handy lead for a major champion. Reed is five from six with a lead of this margin or wider, only failing to convert a two-shot lead in a PGA Tour event some 12 years ago. He led by four and won by four in the Dubai Desert Classic two weeks ago.
Now, Dubai wasn't as simple as it may appear on paper. Reed's lead was down to one early in the back-nine and he was let off the hook by David Puig, who had looked ominous when making birdies at holes nine and 10.
Perhaps Hillier or Ayora will produce a similarly menacing start and it could even come from Olesen, who is alone in second after all. It's just a big ask in a two-ball with a fearsome competitor like Reed and while you'd always take shots over scenarios, it's hard to escape the conclusion that the penultimate two-ball is where you'd like to chase from.
Almost anyone else in front and I'd be splitting stakes on those two, but Reed is so hard to oppose. It might not have been the finish he wanted on Saturday, but he's barely made a mistake, seldom looked like making one, and sets the bar very high. It'll take a really good performance to beat him.
With that in mind REED forms the cornerstone of any two-ball multiples against a vastly less experienced playing partner. Reed outscored Andy Sullivan on Saturday in Dubai, Puig on Sunday, Joakim Lagergren on Saturday in Qatar, and can complete the clean sweep of weekend matches against Olesen.
Pick of the underdogs is KAZUMA KOBORI, who can compete around here and has dropped shots on just three of 54 holes so far. Unfortunately, one such hole saw him give away three, that coming at the tough 15th, but for the most part he's been excellent.
He's 6/5 to beat Johannes Veerman, the Dubai resident whose long-game remains unconvincing, and who isn't as good a putter as Kobori. So far this week there's almost nothing between them in that department but Kobori is far more reliable and I'm surprised at the price.
Finally, ANTOINE ROZNER loves it here and in each of the last two renewals has closed with 68s to climb from outside the top 10 to inside the top six. Rozner leads the strokes-gained tee-to-green stats and was imperious in a third-round 66 which leaves him in a familiar spot.
Sebastian Soderberg went one lower but the Swede has relied on his putter, came here out of sorts, has almost nothing in the way of course form, and is likely to go backwards from ninth place. The opposite is true of Rozner and he's the best bet on the coupon.
Posted at 16:15 GMT on 07/02/26
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