Dave Tindall picks out his best final-round bets for the action at Riviera.
Golf betting tips: The Genesis Invitational
2pts win Scottie Scheffler for Top 10 at 5/2 (William Hill)
2pts double Greyserman and Cantlay to win their two-balls at 5/2 (Boylesports)
Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus famously never won at Riviera. And, for now at least, SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER and Rory McIlroy are also set to end this week still wondering just how to crack the code at the famed California venue.
For the third week running, Scheffler shot himself in the foot with a terrible first round. And for the third week running he’s embarked on an impressive repair job. The World No.1 has followed his opening 74 with rounds of 68 and 66 to climb from dead last when play was halted early on Thursday to tied 22nd with a round to go.
So, first things first, can Scheffler complete a three-peat of back-door top 5s/10s? In Phoenix, he rose from 16th after 54 holes to finish third thanks to a Sunday 64 while at Pebble last week he motored through the field with a closing 63 to secure fourth spot having also been down in 22nd with a lap to go.
“Obviously I wanted to shoot a little bit lower, but overall 5 under is pretty solid,” said Scheffler in his understated way after Saturday’s 66. “Overall I feel like my game's in a good spot. Got a few things that I need to clean up, but overall I feel I'm continuing to trend in the right direction.”
While I’m not quite convinced he can vault into the top five again, the 5/2 for top 10 has to be realistic, especially as it’s not exactly a who’s who of golf above him. Scheffler, who is currently three shots behind those in tied ninth, has an incredible streak of 18 straight top 10s going and will be keen to extend it.
That’s the sideshow dealt with. What about the main event? The story of Saturday was the remarkable surge of Jacob Bridgeman. Coinciding with tournament host Tiger Woods coming into the commentary box for a very welcome hour-long stint, Bridgeman played the 10th to the 14th in 5-under to pull away from the field. By close of play he was six clear, moving to 19-under and half-a-dozen shots in front of closest pursuer McIlroy.
It’s hardly come out of left field given that in four starts this season he’s posted finishes of 4-13-18-8. Bridgeman gained strokes on Approach and with the putter in all four events. And, guess what, he ranks 1st for both SG: Approach and SG: Putting so far at Riviera this week.
The odds? Bridgeman is now 2/9, with Sunday playing partner McIlroy 6/1 to reel him in. There are probably two things that could stop Bridgeman: the weather and Sunday nerves as he seeks his first PGA Tour win in the company of one of the game’s greats. However, it’s a calm, sunny day at Pacific Palisades and Bridgeman teed it up alongside McIlroy twice in last year’s playoffs. McIlroy won the first encounter by two while both shot 67s when paired in the second round of the Tour Championship. The angle of being starstruck isn’t really there now.
I think Bridgeman wins so, in the outrights, it's a no bet.
Ben Coley has nailed it with his two-ball picks this week so I’ll try and add to that in round four. After a sobering start to his PGA Tour career, it’s been fun watching Marco Penge make his first big impression this week but he went from joint-leader to tied seventh on day three after shooting a 74. That was 10 shots higher than Bridgeman.
Penge had rather been propping up his challenge with the flatstick but that all went south on Saturday when he ranked 51st for SG: Putting. The Englishman is only 40th this week for Approach - maybe the new clubs haven’t kicked in after all - and is there to be taken on.
While MAX GREYSERMAN isn’t perhaps the ideal candidate, the American has solid numbers so far, ranking in the top 15 for Off The Tee, Tee To Green, Approach and Putting. He outscored Penge by four strokes yesterday despite having a couple of ‘6’s on his card and is Evens to win their 6.50pm two-ball.
I’ll double Greyserman with PATRICK CANTLAY to beat Alex Noren. Cantlay appears to be adopting the Scheffler model this week, starting slowly before really hitting the accelerator as payday approaches. Starting with a 72 the local man added a 70 and then jumped 27 spots from 42nd to 15th with a 65 in round three.
Cantlay has finished fourth and third in the last two editions here and closed with a 65 at Pebble Beach last week to finish 14th when also out of contention. In Saturday’s third round at Riviera, he ranked 2nd for Approach and 3rd for Putting so there was no faking it.
This is a pro-Cantlay bet rather than an anti-Noren one it has to be said. Noren has been sharp on and around the greens but he’s been below average off the tee and with his irons (40th for Approach in round three) and doesn’t have the same body of work (never made the top 10 in five visits) at Riviera as Cantlay. A double on Greyserman and Cantlay pays around 5/2.
Posted at 09:00 GMT on 22/02/26
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