Matt Cooper previews the final day of the Cognizant Classic and feels there is some value on offer in Florida.
Golf betting tips: Cognizant Classic final round
2pts win Nico Echavarria at 9/2 (General)
Very few people would confuse the PGA National Resort in Florida with the Wentworth Estate in Surrey, but for Shane Lowry there is something about the two venues that is eerily familiar.
Should the Irishman turn his share of the 54-lead at the Cognizant Classic into victory, however, that familiarity would lose its creepy quality and become rather wonderful. He currently sits on 13-under 200 alongside the first and second round pacesetter Austin Smotherman with Nico Echavarria and Taylor Moore a shot back and Jimmy Stanger alone in fifth on 11-under.
Lowry’s sense of deja vu owes everything to his performance at PGA National and Wentworth.
On the West Course at the Surrey venue, he has recorded 12 top 20s in 16 visits. He won there in 2022, but only after enduring a golfing version of heartache as victory so often slipped from his grasp.
His Champion Course performance is not quite so consistent but he has four top 20s in eight starts – and in three of the exceptions he was in the top 10 at some point in the week.
Moreover, the four top 10s have all come in his last four visits and include an unfortunately timed storm that hit him on the 72nd hole when he was on the brink of triumph in 2022 (he ultimately finished second) and a share of the 54-hole lead in 2024 (when he was fourth).
Can he turn the table on those near misses? Can he do the same thing with his recent history, too, because that 2022 BMW PGA Championship win was his last individual success anywhere – and he’s been second or third seven times since then, including when a clumsy finish cost him the Dubai Invitational in the first start of this year.
There is much in his favour and not just the good course form.
It’s mostly to do with those chasers. Echavarria has two PGA Tour wins and Moore one, but they are not in Lowry’s class. Smotherman and Stanger are yet to taste victory and the same can be said for Ricky Castillo and AJ Ewart who share sixth. Joel Dahmen, who is solo eighth, has won but in an opposite field event.
It’s also the case that 11 of the 19 winners on the course since this tournament settled there in 2007 were leading or held a share of the lead (another five were second or tied second).
Lowry knows it can be tricky, of course. It has the capacity to booby trap a 54-hole leader and the blustery winds add to the test. Last year Jake Knapp led by one and finished four adrift. In 2024 Lowry and David Skinns were in a three-way share of the lead before also ending the week four off the winning score. A year before that Daniel Berger was five clear after three rounds but limped home with a 74.
Golfers of the quality of Tommy Fleetwood, Rory McIlroy, Ian Poulter and Wyndham Clark have held solo 54-hole leads and not converted.
There’s absolutely no doubt that Lowry can win from here, but he does have gremlins to deal with. He co-led the 2023 Abu Dhabi Championship and a 76 left him T28. Co-leads in this event, the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational and last year’s Truist Championship have followed – all without ultimate success.
On the flipside, if he’s going to turn it around where better than at PGA National. He’s the most likely winner but the price is a little short at 6/4 given that history.
Smotherman has been impressive in first carding an opening 62, backing it up with a 69 and then closing the third round birdie-birdie when he might easily have folded as the chasers caught and passed him. While this performance represents an enormous contrast with his only previous start in the tournament (70-76 for a missed cut in 2022), he has dropped a few clues about his likely chances.
To begin with, he was a two-time winner last year when graduating from the Korn Ferry Tour – and one of them was at Thornblade which was designed by Tom Fazio which the Champions Course was (before Jack Nicklaus tinkered with it).
Moreover, although he missed the cut in three of his four 2026 starts the exception was rather impressive: eighth in The American Express when ranking first for Strokes Gained Tee to Green. He’s priced 4/1.
Moore (6/1) is looking to land a first top 10 anywhere since TPC Scottsdale over 12 months ago but he is a winner in Florida (the 2023 Valspar Championship). And Stanger (25/1) must be delighted with this week. He was T23 in last April’s Corales Puntacana Championship but has played just 10 times since, making one cut and that was T58.
At the prices NICO ECHAVARRIA is the pick.
He recorded four top 10s on Fazio designs on the Korn Ferry Tour and was T21 at PGA National in 2024. He’s also performed well on blowy courses with Bermuda grass such as Waialae and Sea Island – and won in Puerto Rico where it blows.
The recent vibes are good, too. He was eighth on his penultimate start at Pebble Beach and said he played well last week at Riviera despite the missed cut. In fact, he’s felt “close” all year and “I knew that a course like this fits me well."
His fiancée Claudia is planning their wedding and this week the pair bought the plot of land close to the course on which they will build their new house. He has it in him to frighten the leaders and set a target that spooks them. Back him at 9/2.
There's nothing in the two-balls that looks obviously wrong so we’ll keep it simple with the Colombian.
Posted at 09:00 GMT on 01/03/26
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