Matt Cooper sets the scene ahead of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am final round, with leader Akhshay Bhatia looking opposable.
Golf betting tips: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am final round
2pts win Sepp Straka at 5/1 (General)
1pt win Hideki Matsuyama at 20/1 (General)
Strap in and adjust your tuning-in time because the final round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is going to be blustery and it is set for an early start.
With forecasts of 25mph wind (with stronger gusts) and heavy rain, tee times have been brought forward an hour, and that ought to be good news for those of us watching from the comfort of our homes.
Golf is not necessarily at its best in mucky conditions, but it is usually a captivatingly volatile watch - and the history of winners at Pebble Beach reveals just what the Pacific Ocean gusts can do to a leaderboard.
Of the last 32 events on the course (this event and three US Opens), four were reduced to 54 holes because of bad weather which in itself says much. For the most part it is a good layout for front-runners with 24 of the 32 winners no worse than tied second with 18 holes to play.
But in 2001 Davis Love III won this event with a final round 63 from seven shots back at the start of the round while Phil Mickelson in 2012, Vaughn Taylor in 2016 and Wyndham Clark in 2024 were all six back with 18 holes to play (the latter in a reduced event).
Collin Morikawa made a leap of those proportions in this year's third round, thrashing a 10-under 62 to set an early 54-hole clubhouse target of 17-under 199. It was later matched by Sepp Straka and Jake Knapp. But the trio only share second behind Akshay Bhatia who added a 68 to his opening rounds of 65-64 to reach 19-under.
The leader’s third lap fitted the classic Pebble Beach trend in that he went low early (6-under through seven) and then held on to his score as best he could (nine pars and two bogeys). Expect similar scoring on Sunday. It’s all a little bit like that scamper up the water slide at the end of I’m a Celebrity: get as high as you can early, then cling on and watch other folk slip backwards around you.
This is Bhatia's third visit to Pebble Beach and, while it's an improvement on his previous, he was far from disgraced in finishing T30-T22. He also has form on blustery tracks by the sea, albeit more tropical ones (a victory in the Bahamas and second in Puerto Rico). “I love it in the wind,” he said on Friday. “I love it when it gets tough and you have to think more.”
He then addressed the challenge which he had conquered but will face again. Stood on 18, enduring a long wait to tee off, he said: "I was just freezing at that point. My hands were warm but when it’s blowing 35mph off the ocean it’s brutal."
The wind also impacts putting: "It’s playing hard towards the end, especially late in the day. Poa Annua greens is already a challenge as it is and when you get 25/30mph wind, downhill, downwind, it’s just like hope."
This is Bhatia’s second pre-final round lead on the PGA Tour. When four clear in the 2024 Texas Open he drifted into a play-off before winning in extra holes. His two co-leads at this stage did not result in victories: a 72 in the 2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic saw him miss out by a shot, a 75 in last year’s 3M Open took him from a share of top spot to T25.
Morikawa is chasing a first win since late 2023 and admitted after his round that he is “very, very hard” on himself. He’s notched top 20s in his last two Pebble Beach starts and is on track to add a first top 10 to them. Knapp was T33 on his Pebble Beach debut last year, but has form on the Pacific Ocean cliff tops with third at Torrey Pines in 2024 and fifth there last month.
Straka was seventh in this event last year but that doesn’t really tell the whole story. He was three clear at halfway and one ahead with 18 holes to play. His third round was the flip of that. He lurched to the turn in 1-over and looked out of the event before coming home in 6-under.
Bhatia is priced 2/1, Straka 5/1 and both Morikawa and Knapp 11/2. At those prices it is the Austrian STRAKA who gets the nod.
With the prospect of a little chaos, we will add a chaser. Jacob Bridgeman is alone in fourth and Hideki Matsuyama solo fifth, three and four shots back respectively. Maverick McNealy, Sam Burns, Min Woo Lee and Ben Coley’s pre-tournament tip Tommy Fleetwood are sharing seventh on 14-under.
At 20/1 MATSUYAMA offers a touch of value.
His three rounds of 67 this week are comfortably his best event form, but he’s won blustery and undulating by the sea at Plantation and on Poa Annua greens at Riviera. He didn’t land the win last week in Phoenix but he can set the leaders a target this Sunday.
Posted at 10:20 GMT on 15/02/26
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