Ben Coley's golf betting tips: The Open Championship preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: The Open Championship

3pts e.w. Tyrrell Hatton at 28/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

3pts e.w. Robert MacIntyre at 30/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

2pts e.w. Viktor Hovland at 30/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Russell Henley at 66/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Nick Taylor at 125/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Royal Portrush had to wait almost seventy years to host its second Open Championship, but only six for its third. That says much about the success of the 2019 edition because unless you are St Andrews, Opens simply do not come around this often. Everyone who was there six years ago and is there this week will be relishing the opportunity to do it all again.

For Shane Lowry, that applies in a literal sense and will require him to somehow recreate the magic. For Rory McIlroy, it means redemption. There was a sense of something otherworldly about the 148th Open Championship and nothing encapsulates it better than McIlroy departing on Friday and wishing his friend the best, before Lowry produced one of the finest Open rounds in memory the very next day having picked up the baton.

Not everyone will have relished a Sunday spent wondering how far Lowry would win by, not least those closest behind, but Portrush was about as joyous a place as I can remember being that weekend. The Open had come back at long last to Northern Ireland and those across the island made it a roaring success, even without McIlroy. Portrush itself could not have been more welcoming; no town could've done it better.

Six years might be a short time in terms of Open rotation but still plenty has changed. McIlroy, for starters, has finally ended a major drought which somehow doubled in length first. Tiger Woods is not here, but his heir apparent is, and his name is not McIlroy. Scottie Scheffler is now a three-time major champion, halfway towards matching McIlroy's set, and the clear best player in the game. And then there's LIV Golf.

These details of the game as it is today help colour the tournament, yet the Open, like the Masters and the Ryder Cup, sits above them all. Back at Portrush, this end of the major championship season comes too soon, but maybe it is better after all that we end on a high. Whether someone dazzles in the way that Lowry did or a dozen contenders battle it out on Sunday, be sure to enjoy every moment.

What will it take to win at Portrush?

Returning to McIlroy and Lowry, I've been wondering for a while now whether it's harder to be the latter. If they say it's difficult to follow one low round with another, how about going back to where everything fell into place for four whole days and trying to make it all happen again? McIlroy has one tee shot to get out of his system; Lowry is trying to make lightning strike twice.

But he is off to a good start with the weather. It has been a golden summer so far across the UK and Ireland and talk of a firm, fast Portrush really has whetted the appetite in recent weeks. Naturally therefore, players had to take shelter from Monday storms of which more are threatened. How much the wind blows we will see, but rain seems certain to pour, just as it did in 2019.

That means we could end up with a broadly similar test and perhaps then we can draw more from one tournament than would ordinarily be the case. After all, it did all make sense: in difficult weather at a demanding links, someone who grew up playing the game this way came out on top. Tommy Fleetwood, raised on the northwest coast of England, was the one to challenge him.

These are two fine ball-strikers with magic hands and to me, that sums up the fundamental challenge of Portrush, whose famed greens are small and more dramatic than many other Open venues. The contours here are extreme in places, targets made smaller still, and Lowry's separation came about largely because he seldom missed them, then was capable of damage control when he did. Fleetwood is excellent around the greens but the truth is, so precise and pragmatic is his long-game that he's seldom in a nasty spot.

Another fascinating feature of the eventual leaderboard is how closely it ties together with Augusta. That might seem peculiar, maybe even random, yet when we talk about the Masters we talk about approach play and a heightened dependency on the short-game, which requires nerve and imagination. Everyone in the top 10 here, not just the two Masters champions, has excellent form at Augusta. Most of them have had a good chance to win there.

There are some Wentworth winners, too: six, in total, from the top 15 or so names. That could matter because Portrush was also designed by Harry Colt and when we look back upon a comparatively low-key Irish Open back in 2014, the same connection crops up, not only through Jamie Donaldson but some less heralded European Tour stalwarts. Virtually to a man they've played well at both courses from limited chances.

But when it comes down to it, there's nothing like form in the Open and form in majors when it comes to predicting this inherently unpredictable championship. Brian Harman had both when he won at 100/1, Xander Schauffele had both when he won at far shorter. Cameron Smith and Collin Morikawa only lacked the former; Lowry and Francesco Molinari and Jordan Spieth and Henrik Stenson and Zach Johnson and McIlroy and Phil Mickelson and Ernie Els and Darren Clarke had it all.

Who is the best bet?

With Wentworth form of 2-2-4, 2025 majors form of 14-8-7, 11th here in 2019 and a Green Jacket safely tucked away in the closet, Jon Rahm was the closest I came to a selection at the front of the market. We were on him last year when he stayed on for seventh and in total, he's been selected on these pages for five of the six majors he's played since his shock departure to LIV Golf.

No wonder he appealed to me, then, but 11/1 for an Open where rain is all but guaranteed and a draw bias can always emerge just isn't quite big enough. So much has to go right in order to win a Claret Jug and I simply prefer to take bigger prices and bet each-way, which we were able to do at a massive 25/1 at Troon. He's answered some questions since then but isn't winning often and can be left alone on balance.

My favourite bet is ROBERT MACINTYRE who fits the bill in so many ways.

The Scot isn't in quite the same form as a year ago but arriving at Troon on the back of an emotional, draining Scottish Open win, which he celebrated long into the night, was always going to be a big challenge and I thought he did well to make the cut on balance.

That took his record in the Open to five appearances, five cuts made, and with a Scottish Open victory to his name there's no doubting the fact that this kind of golf suits. What's more, his best effort so far still came back on his debut in 2019 when, a rookie on the DP World Tour, he started strongly and finished with a brilliant 68 for sixth place.

MacIntyre then shot the low round of the day on Saturday of the following Open two summers later, backing it up to finish eighth having made the cut on the number, and having again scraped through at St Andrews he advanced 30-odd spots for a respectable finish at a course which probably plays slightly less to his strengths.

Only at Hoylake did he really disappoint but remember that was four days after McIlroy had ripped his heart out with that birdie-birdie finish at The Renaissance, so suddenly he's never looked better prepared than he is now: in generally excellent form, out of the spotlight last week, and just a month removed from a career-best major finish when runner-up at Oakmont.

So many new major champions could've been found on recent major leaderboards and MacIntyre's performance in bad weather at Oakmont was the icing on the cake in terms of his Open credentials. Combine it with those two fabulous wins of last summer, in Canada and Scotland, plus a solid Ryder Cup debut in 2023, and he's served his apprenticeship, gathered the necessary experience, and is ready to win.

Statistically, he also fits the bill. MacIntyre is a lofty 27th on the PGA Tour in strokes-gained approach, his strongest area albeit there is no weak one. And while his around-the-green stats are only slightly better than average, to me this is exactly the same situation as the one we found in 2019 with Lowry and still find today.

Both men are dynamite with a wedge: creative, bold, perhaps even better the more difficult the shot gets. They are not best served by the thick rough and lack of options we often find on the PGA Tour, yet among their peers would be very highly regarded when it comes to the kind of challenges Portrush presents. Simply put, the stats do both a disservice, yet they're still encouraging enough.

Bad weather served Lowry well and it certainly could MacIntyre, so while he's shorter than he often is, that seems fully merited. Granted a bit of luck and a solid start, he can bring the house down for Scotland and prove another enormously popular Portrush champion.

While it's been a long wait for Scotland, England's last winner came 33 years ago but there are four players with particularly strong credentials, none more so than Tommy Fleetwood and TYRRELL HATTON.

I was achingly close to siding with Fleetwood, runner-up when we were also on him in 2019 and just a few points shorter now, but have come down instead on the side of Hatton after he, like MacIntyre, went so close to landing the US Open at Oakmont a month ago.

It's been a poor year in the majors for Fleetwood and his recent heartbreaking second at the Travelers is still raw whereas for Hatton everything looks to be coming together, with even last week's mediocre LIV Golf finish directly attributable to his worst putting week in three years.

When those come along, Hatton typically bounces back just as he did in 2022 and if he does so again here, there's surely every chance he can go a few places better than when sixth in 2019, one place worse than fifth at Troon three years earlier.

That sixth place saw him lead the field in ball-striking, evidence that the course really seemed to suit, and as a Wentworth winner he has that particular line of Colt form covered, plus an improved Masters record having been ninth and 14th across the last two without holing all that much.

Truth be told he wasn't his electric best on the greens at Oakmont, either, but in general his short-game has held up well all year and around the green there aren't many better. Outside of LIV, he's gained strokes in that department in 11 of his last 12 starts, ranking between fourth and 29th in all of them, and it's encouraging that this does include Augusta where you can't rely on one club and one type of shot.

Three times a Dunhill Links champion, second, fourth and sixth in Scottish Opens and fourth at Royal County Down a decade ago, we know he can play this form of the game and as his experience now extends to being there right at the death in a major, he looks close to the complete package.

My one nagging concern is the fact that he was in Spain last week rather than Scotland, but Hatton was on what we'll call a lads' golf trip in Ireland before that, facing some of the windiest and wildest weather you could imagine, and has played Portrush since last the Open was here. He should be ready to go.

While I've framed it as Fleetwood or Hatton in truth it was more like Fleetwood or VIKTOR HOVLAND and, for better or worse, I've come down on the side of the Norwegian.

Clearly, there's upside in bigger prices as his ceiling is higher, he's more prolific, and he's been closer to winning majors lately. Hovland, despite reinventing himself and going through several coaching changes since he was just about the best player in the world in 2023, has still added two more top-three finishes and boasts five top-10s in his last 12.

That's the work of a man who is banging loudly on the door and will surely one day find that it opens – and perhaps in the Open itself. His record in this reads 12-4-12-MC, a solid debut followed by playing in the final group at St Andrews, then 12th at Hoylake where again he was in the final few groups, albeit a long way behind Harman.

Last year's missed cut was a poor effort but his run-up wasn't great whereas this time, he's had a chance to win at Oakmont, shown plenty of promising signs before a minor injury forced his withdrawal at the Travelers, then produced three good rounds in the Scottish Open where 11th place is in line with that the last three winners of this all achieved.

Right now there aren't many better iron players around so that's an enormous positive, but there is a pretty big negative which is why this was not a straightforward decision: his work around the greens, seldom good, occasionally destructive, and clearly his number one weakness.

Given what I've written about how Lowry separated himself and the general trend towards good chippers in 2019, it might seem odd to select Hovland and I toyed with leaving him out. But for my money he's the leading candidate with the most upside in his price and as he also fits the bill in every other way as a winner and major contender this year, I'm going to include him.

Time will tell whether or not there was an 'ideal' way to prepare for the Open but while last year's was dominated by those who played in the Scottish Open, it's worth noting that in 2023 three of those who tied for second behind Harman had not. Neither had Lowry in 2019, remember, and with the Scottish so dominated by big hitters, I'm still on the fence as to whether that was a necessary warm-up.

Last year, RUSSELL HENLEY finished fifth having not played since the Travelers, that soon after seventh in the US Open, so he certainly knows this is a fine way to get ready as he's pretty much doing what he did then.

Henley was 10th in the US Open this time, that on the back of fifth in the Memorial, and after then finishing runner-up in the Travelers where he played in the final group alongside Fleetwood and champion Keegan Bradley, his current form is of a very high standard.

No wonder he's up to fifth in the world, or sixth by DataGolf's numbers, and he's so very similar to Fleetwood except that he's being dangled at a general 50/1 and as big as 66s with a couple of firms. To my eye that's plainly too big.

Henley looks a good fit, too. He is in fact the only player in this field who ranks inside the top 15 on the PGA Tour in both strokes-gained approach and strokes-gained around the greens, he's a supremely accurate driver, and his once excellent then awful putting has improved this year, helping him to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Fittingly that was largely thanks to a chip-in late in round three and as a recent major contender with a win under tough conditions to his name, plus a top-five finish in the Open just last year, it's really only because of the name, rather than the profile, that he's being quoted at such a big price.

And while Henley didn't qualify for the Open in 2019, he does have some experience of Portrush having played in the Palmer Cup here way back in 2010. He played really well, too, and whether or not that helps him, I like both last year's form plus a strong start at Birkdale in 2017, where just like Portrush approach shots have to come in high rather than along the ground as can be the case elsewhere.

Perhaps he'll suffer for not having played in Scotland but he's proven that it can be done and simply looks overpriced.

There's a similar case for Sepp Straka, another whose profile isn't flashy but whose results most certainly are. He's won twice this year, one of them at Lowry's expense, and followed his runner-up finish at Hoylake with 22nd at Troon. That's a solid Open profile and maybe it's a good thing that his short-game did much of the work last week as that would be the main concern with him.

Straka made the shortlist along with Patrick Cantlay and Sam Burns, Americans you can most certainly argue are priced on nationality rather than skill. Cantlay's issues over short putts are just enough to put me off while Burns has never appealed to me as an Open type, but having been seven-over through 11 holes last year was somehow second after 54, before leading at that stage at Oakmont. He's getting close.

I considered Hideki Matsuyama, whose iron play has been right back to its best and another winner this year, but instead will roll the dice with NICK TAYLOR at three-figure prices.

Taylor has some negatives attached as his majors record had been hopeless until he fared just a little better at Oakmont, but he is a former world number one amateur who has gone on to win five PGA Tour titles including one in each of the last three seasons.

He's had a bit of luck but he has something about him too and what's certain is that he comes here in form, with seven top-25 finishes in his last eight starts. Four of his last five appearances have seen him feature in the top 10 after either round two or three and the exception was in the US Open, where he was 11th through 54 holes and in with a chance of placing.

Quality with his irons (11th for the season) and above average around the greens, he's a nice statistical fit and he's also accurate off the tee. On that score, the rain that's set to fall may change things but in general terms, this is the best major for accurate drivers, as evidenced by the likes of Harman, Morikawa, Molinari and Stenson in recent years.

Taylor definitely has the ability, the nous, the game and the form to contend for a major and this is the one where his lack of pop from the tee ought not to be a big negative. So far he's missed both cuts but neither was a disaster and just maybe he'll take to Portrush at the first time of asking, having produced top-10 tee-to-green displays three times in his last five starts.

The latest of those saw him lead the entire field in the Travelers and I doubt there have been many periods during which he's been so pleased with his game. This is his best chance yet to prove that he's up to it and I'll gladly roll the dice.

Posted at 1900 BST on 14/07/25

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