Ben Coley's golf betting tips: FedEx St Jude Championship preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: FedEx St Jude Championship

6pts win Scottie Scheffler at 5/1 (General - 6.6-6.8 Betfair Exchange)

2.5pts e.w. Collin Morikawa (without Scheffler, McIlroy) at 20/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

1.5pts e.w. Viktor Hovland (without Scheffler, McIlroy) at 28/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

0.75pt dual forecast Scheffler & Morikawa at 80/1 (bet365 - 66/1 Coral, Ladbrokes)

0.75pt dual forecast Scheffler & Hovland at 100/1 (bet365 - 66/1 Coral, Ladbrokes)

0.5pt dual forecast Morikawa & Hovland at 350/1 (bet365 - 300/1 Coral, Ladbrokes)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook | Free bets

According to reports which emerged last week, TPC Southwind is on borrowed time on the PGA Tour. It's almost 40 years since this notoriously hazardous golf course first hosted the St Jude Classic but with changes afoot, from sponsors to format, what's now the FedEx St Jude Championship is set to look very different in a couple of years, if it exists at all.

In some ways, it would be a pity to lose Southwind from the schedule. This course may not be subtle, and the idea of being in Memphis in August would seem crazy were it pitched now, but Southwind always holds its own and tends to throw up something highly entertaining. Four of the last five tournaments here (in various guises) went to extra holes and the exception looked set to until a late burst from the winner.

There would also be some regret because of how straightforward the formula is. This is quite simply the most reliable tee-to-green test on the PGA Tour, in large part because the trouble spots – thick rough and water – are predictable in their punishment. Twelve of the last 15 saw the tee-to-green leader for the week either win or make a play-off. Four champions since 2018 were ranked inside the top five on the PGA Tour coming in and almost all of those who weren't were well above average in 11th, 31st and 32nd.

Justin Rose (142nd) was an outlier last year, because he's become an up-and-down player whose statistical profile rarely stands out these days. But given what we know about Rose, and the improved form he'd shown in Scotland and Northern Ireland prior to coming here, the reality is that he adds substance to the case. Before him, Will Zalatoris, Lucas Glover and Hideki Matsuyama can be grouped together as elite ball-strikers who sometimes look hopeless with a putter, ditto Abraham Ancer (2021) and Rose's play-off victim, JJ Spaun.

It goes without saying that a field made up of the PGA Tour's top 70 is not short of formidable tee-to-green operators, but focusing on the very best of them has to be the policy. At a course where even a small field will lose a lot of golf balls to water, what we're looking for is control and while last year's renewal was the first following a renovation project, that was focused on rebuilding and resurfacing all 18 greens. The fundamental test remains one of getting aboard them safely.

All of the above so clearly points to SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER, beaten a shot by Rose and a contender too the previous summer.

Scheffler has a love-hate relationship with these greens, exemplified by daily rankings of 51st, fourth, first and 58th last year, but it was a wayward tee-shot to the tricky 15th, a hole Rose birdied, which proved his ultimate undoing. He returns seeking an overdue win after more than sixth months without one, during which period he's been runner-up five times.

There are no negatives, really, and it's even possible to argue that having played since the Open he has an edge over Rory McIlroy, whose course record is patchy, as well as Matt Fitzpatrick, Sam Burns, Tommy Fleetwood, Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Aberg and one or two more. Those players have only an additional week away to overcome, but every little helps and Scheffler having played on US soil two weeks ago is a positive.

Above all else, I'm surprised by the price. Truly, I wish he'd opened 3/1 and we could look to get him beaten, but he's bigger than when advised for the Travelers and the only substantive difference bar the course (even more suitable, I'd argue) is that McIlroy plays. That's not nothing, but McIlroy's record here is modest and this should be seen as a primer ahead of two more suitable courses. His focus is very much on East Lake.

For Scheffler, it's arguably the best chance remaining to end this winless run and having stormed home for second place last time, shooting weekend rounds of 64-63 at a course he hadn't seen and didn't have much time to prepare for, I'm genuinely surprised he's not a good deal shorter in the betting. The idea that he was more likely to win the US Open than he is this seems extremely silly to me.

Scheffler ought to take the world of beating and having been less than 3/1 a year ago, close to twice the price reads far more into a run of near-misses than it ought to. One more holed put at each of the Travelers and the RBC Heritage and things would look altogether different, so while I won't argue he's quite the same player 12 months on, I will argue that he's closer to it than these prices say he is.

This is a really good golf course for a player who is precise in all departments and if he can avoid an extremely bad putting day, I think he'll win.

Morikawa can be best of the rest

I find the next wave of the betting hard to like at the prices. McIlroy, as touched upon, isn't an ideal type for the course and nor I'd argue is Xander Schauffele, who struck the ball much better last time but has struggled off the tee here. Yes, he was runner-up in 2024 but that was when he'd won two majors and played well everywhere; two years on and it's been a quiet campaign by his high standards.

Sam Burns is playing like one of the best five golfers in the world but both he and Tommy Fleetwood have to recover from missing out on big chances to win the Open. They've had ample time and I do believe that Fleetwood will draw positives from it as he's that type of character, but even a lucrative FedExCup Playoffs may not light the spark, at least not immediately, and I'll be impressed if either puts it behind them so quickly.

With Hideki Matsuyama right back up the market (advised at 80/1 for the Open and 30/1 for a low-key Rocket Classic, now 22/1 for this) and Matt Fitzpatrick having depended on his putter at this course, none of the seven players priced between 12/1 and 22s makes sufficient appeal. No doubt one or two of them will play well but I find them all easy to overlook at the prices.

Perhaps the main threat will be COLLIN MORIKAWA, who has always looked an ideal type for this, and I'll side with him in the 'without' markets. Betfred, BOYLE Sports, Sky Bet, Paddy Power and Betfair all remove McIlroy as well as Scheffler and as bet365 provide both options, I'll elect the one which is more widely available.

Southwind has a high missed-fairway penalty and demands a high volume of precision approaches to small greens from 150 yards and more. That means not many wedges and places greater importance on hitting the fairway than is sometimes the case, because nobody wants to be hitting a seven-iron from bermuda rough into a small green guarded by water.

Morikawa has been one of the finest iron players on the circuit ever since turning professional in 2019 and unlike former Southwind champion Justin Thomas, there are no concerns as to his approach work right now. Whereas Thomas only clicked over the weekend of the Wyndham, and even then was below his very best, Morikawa ranked second in the Travelers and then third in the Open last time out.

For the season he's second to Fitzpatrick and if we take a view of ball-striking as a whole, Morikawa is behind only Scheffler, by the barest of margins. He's driving the ball superbly, together with that iron play we've become used to, and ranks seventh in fairways. Around the greens is where he falls behind the world number one, but he's still sixth in the overall tee-to-green (i.e. everything bar putting) statistics.

With the putter also firing, Morikawa looks to have everything in his favour and a course record of 20-26-5-13-22-22 is proof enough that Southwind suits. Since finishing fifth four years ago, he's arrived on a missed cut in 2023 and 2025 and a mediocre Olympics effort in-between. This time he's in excellent form once more and rates one of the key threats to Scheffler providing he's ready to go.

On that, Morikawa has twice won tournaments after a month off and his Open win in 2021 had seen him play four competitive rounds since the US Open. He was only beaten in a play-off (at a correlating course, Colonial) in the return event during the Covid summer of 2020, should've won the year-opening Sentry in Hawaii, and has so often gone well fresh.

Around here I rate him the main threat to Scheffler and wouldn't put anyone off playing in the outright market rather than without, particularly if you're not keen on the favourite.

Thomas is now the same price or shorter than he was for the Wyndham Championship and that seems severe. This field is smaller, but it will be harder to beat most of the world's best players, only one of whom played last week. Thomas showed a lot of promise, especially off the tee where his accuracy continues to catch the eye, but taking the same odds up in grade after 14th place isn't for me.

Jackson Koivun is 40/1 from 22/1 and Cam Young 20s from 12s to give you some indication of the expected change for this stronger field, and while Thomas did offer plenty of encouragement, it's rare to see a player move substantially in the market following a tournament in which they never got inside the top 10 and had no chance to win at any stage during the weekend. Over time, it pays to avoid temptation.

Preference is for VIKTOR HOVLAND, another of the very best iron players on the PGA Tour.

That prowess is seen through all departments but where some are particularly effective with wedges, for Hovland it's the other irons in the bag that so often shine. He led the Tour last year from 150-175 yards and currently leads from 175-200, a department for which he was second last year. He's a very solid 31st in the former category at present, too.

With some improvements around the green he's 20th in the overall tee-to-green stats and while he has an extra few yards when he needs it, like Morikawa he's more accurate than he is powerful. The Norwegian ranks 27th in driving accuracy and that's a notable improvement on the previous two seasons, both coloured by occasional, unusual waywardness with driver in hand.

Now that club is firing he's producing high-class golf, to our cost when he birdied the first play-off hole to beat Scheffler in the Travelers having been on my shortlist. Perhaps it's asking too much for that final Signature Event to play out again, Morikawa having been third, but some of the skills do cross over and Hovland, something of a specialist in the Playoffs, is very well-suited to Southwind.

Like Morikawa, he has one top-five and a host of good efforts, and his form has seldom been better coming in. Hovland was runner-up here two years ago after a largely miserable few months but his middle rounds of 64-65 the year earlier were also deeply impressive, he'd shot 65 on his second crack at the course after a decent debut, and he's since added a 63 and a couple of 66s.

Few score as well here when firing and that description certainly applies, as his non-major form this summer reads 3-1-13. Yes, his major performances have been disappointing, but Hovland's iron play remained supreme in both the US Open and the Open, and more of the same should ensure he's a factor under these far more controlled conditions.

Si Woo Kim could be too and, like Scheffler, he's played since the Open. I wouldn't consider 42nd place in the Rocket Classic to be a major negative as that course isn't for him, whereas Southwind ought to be and he has three elite tee-to-green performances in his last four visits. That they've not translated to a meaningful result speaks to his continued putting problems, but he has won three times on bermuda down the years.

At third in the tee-to-green stats, there's plenty of cause for optimism regarding Kim's chances, but he blew a big opportunity in the Open and has become difficult to win with. That sort of thing doesn't ordinarily bother me but this is a player who averages a trophy every 80 starts and carries a major weakness with him everywhere he goes given his putting struggles. For all the numbers look good, I don't see value there.

There might be at massive odds with Ricky Castillo, whose approach play last week was excellent. He should improve with the putter on these less severe greens, his top-five at the Cognizant is a nice correlating form line, and having effectively lost status last season, to now be a PGA Tour winner in the Playoffs should make this feel like a free hit. He might be one for a top-20 finish or the first-round lead if you're so minded.

JT Poston also appeals in that market having twice placed after day one here. He's a straight-hitting, recent winner, with stacks of bermuda form, and good ball-striking numbers last week. Poston's putter abandoned him at Sedgefield but should it return, he could be a factor at a course where he's shot par or better 23 times in 26 tries. Can he find the super-low round he'll need on Thursday, though?

I expect Ludvig Aberg to threaten over the next three weeks but I think Bellerive and East Lake are better fits (Matt Cooper will be previewing the BMW Championship for these pages before I return for the Tour Championship), so the final player on the radar was course specialist Akshay Bhatia.

Bhatia's Southwind form reads 12-6, which speaks to a clear suitability to this test, especially as each came after a poor effort elsewhere. There's logic to it, too, as he's typically a strong iron player from outside 150 yards, something we've seen throughout this season including when he missed the cut in Detroit last time.

"I think it's a ball striker's golf course," he said last year. "I think statistically guys who have won here in the past, it's about ball striking off the tee. I think that's something that is suited to my game. Some of these holes suit my eye. There's maybe one or two holes that don't, but I feel like I can just kind of play my game and there's not too many uncomfortable shots out there for me."

The downside is that Bhatia's regression in driving accuracy has continued this year and he's now down to 122nd of 164 players. It was wayward driving which hurt him badly at a more open, less penal course last time, and unless something changes, it'll likely see his run of eight par-or-better rounds here come to a halt at some stage.

Bhatia does have the ability to turn things around out of nowhere, something we saw in the spring, but all three wins followed a big step up in the previous weeks and on balance, it makes sense to wait for signs of life rather than seek to preempt them. At such a demanding tee-to-green course, it should pay to stick with those showcasing control, which Bhatia has not for a little while.

Instead, I'll take a few small stabs at the forecast markets, where there's mileage in trying to find the players to push Scheffler closest if he's at his best. This angle was written about prior to Hovland beating Scheffler in the Travelers, when the world number one traded long odds-on but backers of the dual-forecast at three-figure prices were celebrating before their play-off began.

Scheffler can take his revenge this time and remind everyone that he's still by some distance the best player in the world, and shouldn't be going off north of 4/1 in fields like this at golf courses which accentuate his skills. Southwind does that as much as any venue on the PGA Tour. We may just need a top-20 putting performance.

Posted at 11:00 BST on 11/08/26

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling.

Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.