Absent of the world number two in the field for the Travelers, it's time for the world number one to win again. Ben Coley has the preview.
- McIlroy absent from field for latest Signature Event
- River Highlands one of the shortest courses on Tour
- Scheffler bids to win back title from Ryder Cup skipper
Golf betting tips: Travelers Championship
5pts win Scottie Scheffler at 9/2 (General)
Four months since the first of them, we've reached the final Signature Event of the PGA Tour season. Or at least I think we have. Do the FedExCup Playoffs count? No, I don't think they do. The first two have the same $20million purse and it would make sense, but I think they're of their own distinction. The Travelers Championship must be the last one. That's what it says on Wikipedia.
Now, if you'll excuse the silliness above, there's a serious point here: there are flaws in the concept as it currently stands. Defenders will cite growing television audiences as a valid retort, but the very purpose of these tournaments already seems to have been outrun by events. No longer does the PGA Tour need to fight back against a listless LIV; whatever the future holds, decisions can be made based on what is best.
This small field isn't it. There are dozens of supposed PGA Tour members who have barely been able to put a schedule together and would love a crack at this popular, well-supported event at TPC River Highlands, one of the oldest and shortest courses on the PGA Tour. They just haven't been invited. There are I dare say dozens who have been invited who don't want to be here, but those $20million purses are hard to resist.
Rory McIlroy now has the luxury of doing what suits him and while it'll rile a lot of people, he's again decided to take a week off instead. Why shouldn't he? Forcing elite golfers to go from a brutal US Open straight into a tournament like the Travelers was always flawed, even if on this occasion the travel time is limited. For all the hysteria, I'd also say this is one which can cope just fine without him.
The course isn't the main reason McIlroy isn't here but, as at Harbour Town in April, it could easily be. River Highlands takes driver out of a player's hands often and the fact Brian Harman has seven top-10s in the last eight years tells you everything. Here, Harman can compete with McIlroy from shot one and that's extremely rare. In fact, nobody has gained more strokes off the tee than Harman across the last two renewals.
Accuracy and a high greens-in-regulation count is the name of the game in the Travelers. It's rare these days to quote the latter statistical category but getting up and down is hard if you miss them and, historically, it's taken a maverick like Jordan Spieth or Bubba Watson to get by doing that. Last year's one-two-three is a good blueprint: Keegan Bradley, Tommy Fleetwood and Russell Henley all keep it in front of them.
Nobody does that quite as well as SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER and for the first time in an age I want to be on him.
This is no humble brag – betting on Scheffler is a profitable enterprise for those who either do so blindly or get the timing spot on. Having shied away from him, my experiences are therefore mixed. Scheffler at times has made opposing him appear foolish; at others, such as when just 6/4 for the Hero Challenge last December, it has paid off.
The reason for the apparent change of strategy here is that, actually, there is no change of strategy. I just think 9/2 is a very good price, for a number of reasons, including that he was 3/1 for the last Signature Event and that one did feature McIlroy. He's since contended for a major and for my money, his performance at the US Open matches or betters all of his form this year, including a never-nearer second at Augusta.
After that, Scheffler went off 7/2 at Harbour Town the following week. He lost a play-off to almost justify those odds and I find myself wondering what exactly it is about his subsequent form that means we can have a bigger price for this very similar challenge. His real blip came before the Masters, remember, but all it took was Augusta to have it pretty much removed from calculations in the RBC Heritage.
Given that his form at River Highlands reads 4-1-6 over the last three years it can't be down to concerns over the course and while yes he won this title after a much quieter US Open, supporting the idea that being out of the limelight may have helped, with him I'm not so sure. Nobody in the sport is better at going again from one week to the next. Scheffler has been an almost permanent leaderboard fixture for four years.
And I thought we saw glimpses of vintage Scheffler last week, particularly in round three where his tee-to-green numbers were significantly better than anyone else's. From there we probably all expected a bit more on Sunday and his uncharacteristic mistake at the very first hole does hint that there's still some improving to do, but that's no bad thing when it comes to guaranteeing his focus. And I believe it is guaranteed.
Ok Scottie!
— U.S. Open (@usopengolf) June 20, 2026
That left for eagle at 16. pic.twitter.com/pwhntmOTFK
The other part of this equation is where how his key rivals stack up. Tommy Fleetwood should've won this last year but this is now his shortest price of the season at this level (he's 16/1, versus 25/1 without Scheffler when selected just three weeks ago) and I'd suggest the US Open is more likely to have left a mark on him. Xander Schauffele was most disappointing over the weekend and his record here is mixed.
I don't think this is a great course for Ludvig Aberg given how seldom he can lean on his driving and while it's in theory a good one for Matt Fitzpatrick, he went from second through 36 holes to a complete non-factor at Shinnecock. Perhaps he'll bounce back but there were severe problems with his accuracy from the tee. For Cam Young, see Aberg, and for Sam Burns, see the heartache he suffered on Sunday night.
Si Woo Kim is simply too short in the betting, and I found myself believing that the chief threats to Scheffler might be Justin Thomas and Patrick Cantlay. The latter missed the cut last week but continued to hit the ball well and boasts an impeccable record here. Thomas meanwhile calls it one of his favourite events and it correlates well with The Players, where he's a past champion, ditto Harbour Town where he is one too.
With Collin Morikawa still not fit, Wyndham Clark still possibly drunk, Henley all over the shop at Shinnecock and Maverick McNealy too wild off the tee, the next name I get to and believe maybe there's a hint of value in the price is that of Viktor Hovland. He was exceptional last Friday having been anything but on Thursday; he's the same price for this as he was a US Open and we know the course is one he can handle.
Hovland in fact has led the field in strokes-gained off-the-tee twice at River Highlands and his approach play was obscenely good last year only for his neck to lock up and force his withdrawal. He has that correlating form at Sawgrass and Harbour Town, and at Sedgefield too, and also comes with the reassurance that he's won after a missed cut before. Might he do it again? That may depend on Scheffler.
Remember, Scheffler has those correlating form lines having won at Sawgrass twice and Harbour Town. Scheffler leads the PGA Tour's greens-in-regulation stats and sits high up in driving accuracy. All the things I was looking for here led back to him and while that's undeniably been the case before, the price has often been the missing piece from my perspective. Here, it isn't. It's almost double what he was sent off last year.
He's also very good at winning the same event again. Most famously he's done so in the Masters, but you can add The Players, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Phoenix Open, and the Memorial Tournament to that list; the Heritage saw him lose a play-off in his follow-up bid, he was third in the Byron Nelson, and fourth at East Lake. So far, only in one attempt at the PGA has he not gone close to doubling up. He was 14th.
I find the world number one very difficult to oppose and having been sorely tempted to put him up at 6/1 or so last week, little more than a point shorter with a field less than half the size, absent of the second and third favourites and a handful more viable winners (including Tom Kim, actually, his play-off victim two years ago), these odds scream good value to me. That means he's the only outright selection.
For those who want to be more creative, Scheffler to beat Thomas, Cantlay or Hovland are the most appealing forecast options and are 125/1, 125/1 and 150/1 with bet365. Other names on my shortlist who might appeal as a means to tackling these markets are, in order, Akshay Bhatia (not quoted), Justin Rose (200/1), Ben Griffin (150/1), and Jacob Bridgeman (not quoted). Maybe Daniel Berger if he remembers how to putt.
Dual forecasts are available with bet365, Coral and Ladbrokes, providing insurance if Scheffler is second to one of the nominated players, and 80/1 about Scheffler-Cantlay and Scheffler-Thomas are the pick of the prices. Unfortunately, Coral and Ladbrokes are a good bit shorter at 50s, and as readers my be limited in what they can do here, I'll leave these bets out of the staking plan.
This is ultimately a tournament where I can gladly put speculation to one side and hope that Scheffler can finally get his hands on another trophy, after a whole six months without doing so. The course, the make-up of the field and the market force a simple conclusion. Over to you, Scottie.
Posted at 12:00 BST on 23/06/26
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