Ben Coley is on US Open countdown but first up it's the Canadian version, where the hope is that last week's form carries over.
Golf betting tips: Canadian Open
4pts win Sam Burns at 16/1 (Betfred, BetVictor, Betfair Exchange)
3pts win Wyndham Clark at 24/1 (bet365, Betfair Exchange)
1pt e.w. Tony Finau at 66/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1pt e.w. Max Greyserman at 66/1 (bet365, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Mackenzie Hughes at 70/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1pt e.w. Zach Bauchou at 80/1 (BOYLE Sports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
The RBC Canadian Open is the longest-running non-major on the PGA Tour and it's that fact, along with such strong local support, which has allowed it to continue to thrive even as it is arbitrarily downgraded by the number of dollars it is able to pay out.
This is not a Signature Event and for now it's not part of some broader ecosystem of national opens, but it was pretty clear when Rory McIlroy won it twice and crystal clear when Nick Taylor succeeded him, that this does mean something more. Even when it left old courses like Hamilton and St George's and went to the jarringly titled TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley, there remained an untouchable soul.
Whether or not organisers would want this pre-US Open slot is hard to say, but it does feel like the right one when commercial factors are removed. Without Signature status there's simply no way that all of the game's best players are going to be here, but even in McIlroy's absence there are enough. Circumstances dictate that they include new dad Collin Morikawa and fellow fitness doubt Viktor Hovland, too.
Morikawa made his professional debut in this tournament in 2019, selected on these pages at 400/1 en route to 14th (a fact presented merely as evidence that I did once know what I was on about). He returns now facing his second crisis since: the first was to do with his failure to win anything meaningful between November 2021 and February 2026. This one is about his back, the first major injury he's had to contend with.
We can only hope Morikawa's baby-changing set-up is suitable for someone nursing such issues, and that Hovland's apparent problem is temporary. Forgive the digression, but Hovland's flux is something I find really frustrating and were his return to where he belongs to be further compromised by fitness woes, that would be a pity. For both, the Canadian Open will be key to arriving at the US Open in competitive shape.
That isn't to say that Osprey Valley will present a challenge equivalent to that of Shinnecock, because it won't – this is a long par 70 with wide fairways, but that's where any such comparisons end. I wrote last year that it ought to favour the bigger hitters and it did, with Ryan Fox beating headline pick Sam Burns in a play-off that Cameron Young and Ben An both could've been part of. All benefited from rain but even without it, getting as close as possible to fairly small, contoured greens will help.
There are only two par-fives for these longer hitters to gobble up, but their advantage should be seen across several long par-fours plus one short one, the sixth, which Fox and Burns both played well. It's driveable when set-up allows for it and in round two last year, Fox went for the green when many shorter drivers didn't. Overall, it seems likely to me that such players have a handy advantage, without this quite resembling a Houston Open or Genesis Invitational.
Still, lots of drivers and no real threat to them is a good formula if you do carry it 330 in the air or, like Fox, hit it flat and long. Asked how he approached the course, the Kiwi said: "Hit driver off the majority of tees and try to give yourself some short shots in. If you hit your wedges good, you can definitely make some birdies, and I've done that the first couple days pretty well."
It's worth noting that Hamilton, where Robert MacIntyre won in 2024, seems a potential guide. Fox had been seventh, Burns 10th, and Victor Perez managed top-10s at each. Danny Willett meanwhile almost did, finishing eighth there back in 2019 and adding 13th here. For whatever it's worth, Willett and Fox are two of five Wentworth winners who made the top 15 last year, which is striking but quite hard to reason.
The latter point would lead you to Alex Noren, a two-time Wentworth champion who ranks fifth in this field if you go by DataGolf and comfortably inside the top 10 however you dress it. He's playing well through the bag, last year's missed cut is easy to excuse given that it was early on in his return to fitness, and he has some high-class form on supposedly big-hitter courses this year in Riviera and Doral.
There's a very solid case that he's too far down the market, but the counter argument would be that he's a 43-year-old who has played more than 200 PGA Tour events without winning and while that's harsh, I can't quite believe this is the right place to go and change that. With some rain around too, TPC Toronto should play long again and for someone like Noren to win may require something exceptional with the putter.
The Finau countdown
We're probably not getting that from TONY FINAU but he looks the best each-way value to my eye.
The Utah powerhouse was runner-up on his last Canadian Open appearance in 2022 and, in five starts in the event to date, has made every cut. He's also been fifth back in 2017 and it may well be that this course proves the most suitable of all based on what we saw last year.
Finau's driver is the thing I'm most encouraged about, because it's roared back to form lately; he ranked third for strokes-gained off-the-tee when firing away at wide fairways in the Nelson, then was second under altogether different conditions at Muirfield Village last week. These are his best two driving displays in more than a year and it's that club, the one that underpins his best golf, which has been making life so hard.
In-between the two was a missed cut at Colonial but again the driver fired and that could take him a long way into a tournament he has a real fondness for. That he's won over the border in Michigan and Minneapolis is also a positive and both those tournaments were low-scoring, with poa greens probably suiting to some degree. Finau is no specialist, but he's definitely better away from bermuda and his best putting all year came at Pebble Beach.
We will need more from his iron play but he's gained strokes in five of his last eight and is showing clear signs of improvement from last season, where again his best putting came on poa annua in California, and I'm of the view that a better-than-average putting display here would make him a serious each-way threat soon after his best golf of the season in the aforementioned Byron Nelson.
At the time of writing, Finau shares the lead just past halfway in his US Open qualifier and while I wouldn't read too much into those, following a solid effort at a higher level it's further evidence that he's rounding into form. Three times in four full-field tournaments he's been close to the lead at halfway and that was also true on a couple more occasions back in the spring.
Finau has definite upside at the odds and I'm a big believer in the fact that a place and a tournament can help spark something, which was part of the case for siding with SAM BURNS last year given that he boasts such a fine record in this event wherever it's been played.
Burns probably ought to have won following a storming final round and returns now having produced some of his best ball-striking since in the Memorial, so there's a lot in his favour and the only real negative is that it's been a long time between drinks.
I felt during Sunday's final round last week that his wedge work under pressure was exposed, as it had been in the play-off defeat to Fox and then late in the day at Oakmont, but there's no denying the fact that his approach play numbers are getting back towards his peak levels.
That ought to earn him plenty of chances during what's his time of year and while we are suffering a reduced price versus 12 months ago, remember that Rory McIlroy and Ludvig Aberg headlined the field then. This time it's Burns, Tommy Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick and of the trio, given Fitzpatrick's current putting issues, he looks the man to beat.
I'm happy taking the best prices and going win-only on both him and WYNDHAM CLARK, who looks good value having supplemented his Byron Nelson win with third place at Muirfield Village, by some distance his best yet at a course he'd never previously got to grips with.
Leading the field in both strokes-gained approach and tee-to-green, Clark's performance was highly encouraging after a field-leading putting display had seen him fend off Scottie Scheffler and Si Woo Kim in Dallas.
Some may find it hard to believe he's going to win again so quickly, but that's where I find serious encouragement in the past couple of seasons. After he'd broken through at Quail Hollow in 2023 he became a major champion just three starts later, while following his slightly fortunate Pebble Beach victory in 2024 he added two runner-up finishes in his next four plus third soon after at Harbour Town.
Clark has shown that he gets hot and stays hot and while his share of 59th here last year may not look great, he was badly out of form, especially with his irons, yet still started and finished well. That he ranked seventh in strokes-gained off-the-tee and putted nicely goes down as promising and as he said himself on Sunday, he is extremely confident with his irons right now.
To underline the change in that part of his game, Clark registered -0.25 strokes-gained (well, lost) per round with his approaches last year but is up at +0.6 for this year, so with his winning upside in mind I like his chances in an event where he does have a top-10 finish from just a handful of appearances.
Clark went really close in the 3M Open back in 2019 and was 12th in it last summer and that's an event I suspect will offer plenty of good pointers, as might the Rocket Mortgage Classic where he's been eighth and 17th in just three tries. Also fifth at Memorial Park and winner of a US Open with wide fairways and a clear advantage for the long drivers, TPC Toronto looks an ideal set-up for him.
Motivation should remain high given his Presidents Cup ambitions as he's only now getting close to the top 20 and based on past evidence, there seems a good chance Clark can go in again.
Back to Bauchou
Brooks Koepka has featured on these pages a number of times and continues to look menacing, but I was more interested in youngsters Michael Thorbjornsen and Michael Brennan. Both are big talents with form in the right places and where Brennan is concerned, that extends to Canada where he won twice at a lower level and even bagged some course experience when finishing fourth here as recently as last September.
Arguably the longest and best driver on the PGA Tour and back-to-form with the putter when sixth last time, Brennan was always going to be popular. But he's in from 100/1 at Colonial to as short as 28s here and the general 33/1 looks short enough based on the way he'd played prior to it, whereas ZACH BAUCHOU has maintained a similar level of form and his price hasn't contracted.
Bauchou isn't anything like as long off the tee but this all-rounder is long enough to compete here and I wonder if he might also be better suited by conditions beyond the nature of the course. As well as rain there's plenty of wind forecast and having played his college golf in Oklahoma, where he's been based for a long time now, he should have no complaints on that score.
And he's playing very nicely. A form line of 28-13-24-6-22 is supplemented by impressive, progressive tee-to-green rankings of 13th, ninth and seventh lately, while at the Zurich Classic he was very much the star in a pairing with the more established Sam Stevens.
Like Finau, Bauchou is going well enough in his US Open qualifier at the time of writing and like Brennan, he does have a strong Canada connection, just one that isn't so obvious. Bauchou won the Canadian Amateur in 2017 and defended his title right here in Toronto a year later, enough to earn a crack at the Canadian Open. A year later, it was in this event that he made his professional debut.
Returning now having properly established himself on the PGA Tour, were he 20 yards longer off the tee I'd rate him one of the better bets I've seen all year. Even without those extra yards, 66/1-plus screams value and while keen not to make this too much about Brennan's frustratingly short odds, Bauchou leads their head-to-head 8-2 this year, ranks higher with DataGolf, yet is two to three times the price.
Thorbjornsen was harder to pass up as he has plenty of good form in the northern US states, has often putted well on poa annua, and showed more when 16th last time. That said he's flattered to deceive quite often lately, fading from second over the weekend at Colonial and missing the cut in the Nelson before that despite having sat fourth after round one. His iron play is the issue and while better last time, more is required.
I'll return to those at bigger prices and make MACKENZIE HUGHES my pick of the Canadians.
Hughes was in my staking plan two years ago when second through 54 holes in his bid to emulate Nick Taylor, who had brought the house down when capturing this title the year before. Seventh in the end, that's the pick of six strong performance in seven as a PGA Tour member, but he's also been eighth, 14th, 27th, 28th and 32nd, often sitting close to the lead.
To me that represents an excellent record and evidence that he can raise his game when he really wants to, which happened again last year with a third-round 64 moving him up to sixth with a round to go. Hughes played poorly on Sunday, but it was the third time in five years that he'd entered the final round with a chance to win his national open, which is some effort.
Hughes' form coming in last year had cooled since a promising spring but this time it might just be coming to the boil, as after a closing 66 in the Truist he started well in the Nelson, then saw it through for his first top-10 of the year in the Charles Schwab Challenge last time out.
Driving it better there and dazzling with his short-game, I think something similar is well within his capabilities, with these wide fairways to suit and neither wind nor rain an issue for a past Open contender. He's often punched above his weight at long courses too, contending at Torrey Pines and building a largely excellent record at Memorial Park, where again space off the tee is a big positive for him.
Hughes, also a two-time Canadian Amateur champion, has a grittiness about him; an ability to squeeze the maximum out of a game which never leaps off the page statistically, and an uncanny knack of being ready to go in this particular tournament. It all adds up to a likeable bet at upwards of 50/1.
Grey area where James is concerned
A year ago, Luke Clanton made his pro debut in the Canadian Open, where he was grouped with Rory McIlroy and Ludvig Aberg, and was about a 40/1 shot. He'd shown a little bit more having contended as an amateur, something PGA Tour U graduate Ben James hasn't done, but the latter has operated at a comparable level in college where he's second only to star in the making, Jackson Koivun.
James has shown some high-class tee-to-green form, too, ranking second in last year's Texas Open, and so far it's just been the putter that's held him back in limited opportunities. We'll see if that remains the case but he signed off his college career with yet another win and has almost certainly improved by quite a bit since he last took part in a PGA Tour event.
He's from Connecticut so the climate and grasses should be familiar and as he's currently competing for the lead with some good players in US Open qualifying New York, perhaps he will be ready to compete straight out of the gates and demonstrate that the standout 150/1 was a bit of an oversight. I certainly gave a good deal of thought to chancing him.
But on balance I'm inclined to play it safer with established pro MAX GREYSERMAN, tied with James in their qualifier at the moment but of course far more experienced having done everything but win on the PGA Tour.
Five runner-up finishes in two-and-a-half seasons represents an excellent body of work and plenty of it would seem to correlate well with this, particularly his efforts in the 3M Open and Rocket Classic, events Finau has won. In general, he's been best under low-scoring conditions and often with width available, such as in Mexico and Houston.
Greyserman was 14th in a major three starts ago and followed that with the best tee-to-green performance of his career when ninth in the Nelson, so it's a question of whether you're prepared to forgive him a dismal effort at Colonial afterwards. That's made tougher by the fact that he was selected here.
However, we're compensated by a bigger price, lower scoring conditions are definitely a positive, and he has plenty of experience in Canada. Raised in New Jersey and again familiar with conditions like these, I can see this test suiting him down to the ground and it may be that qualifying for the US Open, which he's on track to do, helps to restore his putting confidence.
That club was an undoubted strength prior to the last few months and a turnaround for the move back north and to poa annua is plausible. I don't think he'll withdraw even if he does seal that US Open spot as he's not played much golf lately, and at north of 50s he's worth a second chance in the hope that Colonial was a mere bump along the road to a deserved breakthrough win.
Posted at 20:00 BST on 08/06/26
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