Sungjae Im and Michael Thorbjornsen head four selections for the Baycurrent Classic, as the PGA Tour heads to Japan.
Golf betting tips: Baycurrent Classic
2pts e.w. Sungjae Im at 28/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. Michael Thorbjornsen at 28/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1.5pts e.w. Rickie Fowler at 40/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. Taylor Pendrith at 100/1 (General 1,2,3,4,5)
Renamed ahead of last year's switch to a new venue, the Baycurrent Classic reverted to its type and produced a high-class champion in Xander Schauffele. Like Collin Morikawa before him, Schauffele was able to honour his Japanese family heritage in winning the only PGA Tour event played in Asia and while the margin was just a single stroke in the end, it always felt like he had Max Greyserman at arm's length.
The presence of Greyserman in second and defending champion Nico Echavarria in ninth suggests that the move from Narashino to Yokohama Country Club was not too disruptive, though this course is wider, its challenge found around the greens. Three things stand out from the statistics: approach play and scrambling were both important, logical given these sloped greens, and six of the top eight were big hitters. Only Takumi Kanaya could infiltrate the power collective (Alex Smalley is long enough) and that after a closing 62 in which he gained five strokes putting.
Yokohama is a tree-lined, mid-length par 71, its fairways are generous, and there was a lot of rain around before the tournament. That no doubt played a significant role in the way things transpired but the same formula is in play once more, with a temperamental forecast from now until tee-off. It's easy sometimes to fall into the trap of categorising a golf course because of a slight tilt in one direction, but Schauffele, Greyserman, Michael Thorbjornsen, Garrick Higgo and Rico Hoey are all inside the top 50 in ball speed and there's a good chance Ben An would be if he'd stuck around.
Three of the big six may help to unearth clues elsewhere as the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit GC immediately springs to mind as comparable: that's a traditional, tree-lined course, but one which favours aggression and power. Thorbjornsen won there from Schauffele in second, Greyserman nearly won last year (the huge-hitting Aldrich Potgieter did) and Hoey's course record is excellent. Greyserman also said of Yokohama: "This golf course is very much like Northeast golf."
As for the challenge around the greens, course winner Keita Nakajima said: "I won in 2023 JGTO tournament and I also played here at the 2018 Japan Open. I played here many times, I always feel like the greens are really tough and the undulations on the greens are really difficult." On this point, the entire top nine, from Echavarria up, ended the tournament ranked 11th or better in scrambling. Remember though that in a small field these rankings are in effect inflated.
A small field it may be, but once again this is a good one, featuring 11 who took part in the Presidents Cup despite the absence of Asian Games hero Tom Kim, who earned an exemption from military service in his native Korea when winning individual gold last week. Schauffele, Morikawa and Hideki Matsuyama headline it along with Rickie Fowler, whose grandfather Yutaka Tanaka is of Japanese descent. There are another nine Presidents Cup players, too.
So dominant was he once he'd found top gear 12 months ago, that Schauffele has to be considered the right favourite. Having started slowly with a level-par 71, the two-time major champion was best by five shots over the closing 54 holes. He hit every fairway on Sunday and really never looked like letting go of the lead he'd worked so hard to earn following a tough opening round.
There were signs towards the end of a solid but unspectacular season that his best wasn't far away and I'm drawn to the fact that these included second place in Detroit, but backers will need to excuse a poor Presidents Cup. Team match play golf doesn't always translate and there are reasons for doing so, not least the way he drove the ball at Medinah, but for every good drive there was at least one hopeless putt and I just couldn't trust him to deliver at the prices.
Indeed there are parallels with Ludvig Aberg, a worthy favourite for the Open de Espana but not one for maximum faith. Perhaps they'll both deliver at about 100/1 and there's probably a good run waiting for those who play the each-way double, but the return for your total stake (around 4x) is insufficient to justify that bet either.
In different ways this is a good course for both Min Woo Lee and SUNGJAE IM and at the odds, the latter is preferred.
Any time we're talking about length and good play around the greens, Min Woo has to come into the reckoning, and he was 10th here last year. Also second and 13th from two starts at Detroit and fourth on his final start of the PGA Tour season, there's plenty to like, but the overall balance of his form this season doesn't quite merit being so high up the betting.
Im isn't nearly as long, but he's exceptional around the greens and he took to Yokohama last year, finishing 20th despite a shocking week with the putter. Again, that club is typically reliable and has been deadly at times during this comeback season which began with surgery. It's taken time, but the Korean looks to be firing on all cylinders again now and a run of five top-15s in six ended with fifth and 10th in his final starts of the Playoffs.
One of these was in Missouri at a long, soft course and we then saw Sungjae back that up by playing very well for most of the Presidents Cup, which he ended as comfortably the best Internationals player from a strokes-gained perspective and with a 2-2-1 record. Most notably, his approach play registered as the best of all 24 players and while data from a team match play competition is bound to have its flaws (clearly, Tom Kim was the best Internationals player), we saw all week that he was peppering pins.
This is the one area of Im's game which has been holding him back, badly so; in fact were he about Tour-average in approach play for the past couple of years, it's hard to imagine anything other than a title or two having come his way. Instead, that department has stalled his progress and I won't have been alone in keeping an eye out for signs of improvement with a view to what that could unlock.
Of course, it would be preferable had those signs been bright and flashing and direct from his individual performances rather than the Presidents Cup, but he did also gain strokes with his approaches in three of his six starts before Medinah. There have been some small indications of better to come and that's also true of this event last year, when he gained five strokes across the tournament to rank sixth. Those were his best numbers in 18 months.
With a record of 3-29-12-13-20 in the event and good form in Detroit too, there's plenty that points towards Im continuing his resurgence.
Go Rickie
Sticking with that Detroit angle, I wonder if RICKIE FOWLER might just be up to winning this after a break.
Fowler has been off since the BMW Championship in August, but he's often gone well fresh in the past and with his own Japanese connection, I feel sure he'll have prepared properly for this. Seeing both Morikawa and Schauffele win in Japan is bound to motivate him.
So far, Fowler has managed two top-fives in four trips and while he makes his debut at this golf course, that 2023 victory in Detroit suggests it ought to suit. He was eighth there in August, too, so it wasn't a one-off. He has also won at TPC Boston for another flourish of that Northeast form Greyserman referenced and the latter mentioned Pinehurst, where Fowler has been runner-up.
All of those speculative correlations aside, five top-10s and another five top-20s made it a good season for the popular American and he struck the ball very nicely when last in action, ranking 11th, ninth and 14th in approach play for his final three starts in August and continuing to drive the ball well for the most part. It's a shame the putter cooled at Bellerive, costing him the chance to fight for a spot at East Lake and the rewards that brings.
Those rewards include major starts for 2027 and, at 48th in the world, this is therefore a potentially huge week for Fowler. Next year's major venues include Pebble Beach in his home state of California, and the Home of Golf itself in St Andrews. He's one good performance from securing his place there and returning to Augusta National for the first time in three years, and where better to do it than here in Japan.
Fowler is playing with Matsuyama and Keegan Bradley over the first two rounds and while Matsuyama of course is the home hero, the next best thing here might be victory for the American. That's a scenario worth having on-side.
Further down the betting, Christiaan Bezuidenhout appeals as slightly underrated at the prices and he was 10th here despite putting poorly last year. As with Im, that club is typically a strength and the South African showed it at times during the Presidents Cup, where admittedly he did struggle from tee-to-green. He's won at some big courses back home despite lacking firepower and could threaten the places at around the 70/1 mark if sharpening up his approach play.
However, the nature of last year's leaderboard and likelihood of similar playing conditions leads me back towards some of the longer drivers and I'll take MICHAEL THORBJORNSEN over namesake Michael Brennan.
The latter does have the potential advantage of having played last week but his weakness is his chipping and this is both his first course appearance and first time in Asia, whereas Thorbjornsen finished third here a year ago.
That came courtesy of world-class approach play and actually without the assistance of his driver, the club that tends to unlock his best golf and provided the foundations for his breakout win in the aforementioned Rocket Classic at the end of August.
Thorbjornsen really impressed in the way he went about taking that opportunity, clearly benefiting from a host of experiences in the mix this season, and I expect him to kick on over the next 12 months. This is an enormous talent in the making and, like Brennan, you'd have to think a run at the Ryder Cup side is on the cards, albeit competition for places may mean there isn't room for both of them.
Much of Thorbjornsen's best golf has come in the Northeast – he's from Ohio and has gone well there, plus in Illinois, Connecticut and Michigan – so it makes some sense that he took to this course just like Greyserman did, and providing he's sharp enough a similar title challenge seems entirely feasible. Although it remains true that Schauffele never looked like losing last year, Thorbjornsen did draw level after nine holes on Sunday, the first time he'd been in the final group.
He lacks consistency versus some others around him in the betting, but with that comes a very high ceiling and his ability to reach it depends on how he putts. Three times in his last eight starts he's putted well; they've yielded first, seventh and 16th. With conditions in his favour – Matsuyama described the course as 'wet' when speaking to the media early on Tuesday – he can again play his way into the mix here.
Lee Hodges hit the ball nicely in Utah and played some tidy golf here after a poor start, so I could see him going well. Third in the John Deere doesn't look a bad form guide (Thorbjornsen, Smalley and Bezuidenhout have all gone close there) and his 3M Open win came at a course where bigger hitters generally dominate, one where Greyserman came close to winning in his rookie season.
Johnny Keefer is also of some interest as he is bang in-form and has a lot to play for. At 62nd in the world, Keefer is closing in on a repeat of last year, when he snuck into the top 50 to earn major starts. Doing so again would get him into the US Open at Pebble Beach, close to where he spent much of his childhood, and the PGA Championship at Frisco in Texas, the state he now calls home.
At his best when able to hit driver often (four of his five top-10s this year fit this description), a soft course is bound to suit and I did wonder if there might be a family connection too as his fiancee's name originates in Japan. But the bottom line has to be price and I can't help but feel his reflects reputation more than it does results. Given that he's making his debut here and is 30-odd places behind Fowler in DataGolf's rankings, he looks short enough.
With Greyserman (runner-up both starts in Japan, both times holing everything) having been disappointing this year and Max Homa having made no impact in this tournament so far, I'm going to sign off with TAYLOR PENDRITH at a big price.
The reason for that price is that he too has been largely poor, but the Canadian signed off the regular season hitting the ball very well in the Wyndham and was solid in that department when returning for the Biltmore Championship three weeks ago.
From there, Pendrith took up vice-captaincy duties at the Presidents Cup where it must have been hugely motivating to watch on from the sidelines, powerless as the Internationals surrendered a golden opportunity.
That isn't to say he'd have been able to stop it but the 35-year-old, whose sole win to date came at a course with wide fairways where Greyserman finished ninth back in May, Kanaya was fifth last year and An fourth the year before, should feel he has a lot more to offer.
He's been to Japan previously to play in the Dunlop Phoenix, where he performed respectably, and I feel this is the right golf course and right time to chance a player who was runner-up at a big-hitters' layout when last he putted well.
Pendrith didn't do much wrong in losing a play-off there and with form at the Rocket Mortgage, 3M Open, Torrey Pines and even Pinehurst, this place may bring out his best.
Posted at 09:00 BST on 06/10/25
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