David Puig can lead a strong home challenge in the Open de Espana, according to golf expert Ben Coley.
Golf betting tips: Open de Espana
2.5pts e.w. David Puig at 28/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
2pts e.w. Angel Ayora at 30/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1pt e.w. Sam Bairstow at 66/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Dan Bradbury at 80/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Hennie Du Plessis at 90/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
For those counting, the Open de Espana will be the 15th and final national open of the season on the DP World Tour. Golf's Global Tour has been to Oceania, Africa, Asia and even North America, but its heart remains in Europe and Spain is a fitting place to sign off before heading back west for a planned conclusion in the Middle East.
That conclusion could yet happen in Spain and Portugal instead, if security concerns in Abu Dhabi and Dubai demand it, but for now this is expected to be our farewell to Europe for another seven months. We have a strong field for the occasion, headlined by Jon Rahm, Sergio Garcia, Alex Noren, Patrick Reed and Tyrrell Hatton, though it is unfortunate that it has little room for players who earned status via the HotelPlanner Tour or Q-School last year and desperately need opportunities.
This is the seventh straight renewal at Club de Campo in Madrid and so far there have been only two types of outcome: the blowout and the play-off. Blowouts have seen Rahm win two titles here by an aggregate of 11 shots and Matthieu Pavon win by four. The other three editions saw Rahm beaten by Angel Hidalgo, Rafa Cabrera Bello edge out Adri Arnaus, and Marco Penge do likewise against Dan Brown last year, all in extra holes.
Club de Campo is a fabulous venue which I've a lot of time for. It is unmistakably Spanish, winding its way up and down, through and around cork trees. Its greens are small but its rough tends not to be thick, which means angled fairways that are hard to hit don't overly penalise misses off the tee. In fact that to me is the predominant theme: you can be really, really aggressive here, if you want to be. Penge, Pavon and Rahm all tend to be off the tee and runners-up Arnaus and Zander Lombard are too.
Long drivers Sean Crocker, Grant Forrest and David Puig were all among the share of third two years ago, Min Woo Lee was third with Lombard fourth in 2022, and Forrest had been third (Wilco Nienaber sixth) in 2021. Given that Pavon had been runner-up before winning and that Cabrera Bello (second) and Arnaus (fourth) had been placed behind Rahm in 2019, we've seen course form stack up very well. Much of it comes from this type of player and Penge was actually breaking the mould last year by scoring only modestly across three par-fives and the driveable 18th.
Long drivers made up much of last week's Dunhill Links leaderboard, enough to give me pause before writing it off as a form guide, but it almost never has been in the past. Pavon did win a week after finishing sixth, but of the 43 players who've hit the places in Spain having played in the Dunhill Links, he's the only one who had contended. A remarkable 31 of 43 hadn't even made the cut, including Rahm prior to his 2019 win.
Rahm has made very short prices look very good business before, although I also recall him trading odds-on during round one in 2021, then fading to 17th. That he did win after his Dunhill Links failure may be seen as a positive, but let's make no bones about his performance at the BMW PGA Championship: it was the worst of a 10-year professional career. His brilliance is such that he could leave it behind him; perhaps his wounded pride will even help. But right now this simply isn't the same player who once made winning in Europe appear straightforward.
I was going to write more at this point, about how the market has at least moved significantly in the same direction as his game, but Spanish publication Ten Golf reports that his participation is considered unlikely. Rahm and his wife are due to welcome their fourth child any day now and Rahm had already spoken about that potentially ending his run of seven consecutive appearances in an event which would otherwise guarantee his focus.
In Rahm's potential absence, DAVID PUIG can ensure that the title returns home.
All players from all countries dream of winning their national open or at least some kind of tour event on home soil, and we've seen a vivid demonstration of that this autumn: Jeff Winther in Denmark, Scott Jamieson in Scotland, Joe Dean in England, Shane Lowry in Ireland.
But Spaniards have been the pick of the bunch when it comes to raising their games and we've seen that not only through Rahm, Hidalgo and Rafa Cabrera Bello in recent years, but runner-up Arnaus (and Rahm and Cabrera Bello too), and contenders like Samuel del Val and Alfredo Garcia Heredia. In 2021, the first four home were Spanish and with perfect weather forecast, we really ought to see a strong challenge once more.
Puig helped form it two years ago when finishing third and having been 34th as an amateur then ninth last year too, his course form is excellent. Lately, it's been built in the way you'd expect, as he's been the single best driver in each of the last two editions, his numbers in 2024 as good as you're ever likely to see.
Incredibly powerful off the tee, Puig's driving is his main strength and a dip in that regard explains a quiet summer since he was fifth in LIV's Spanish event. However, that's where we saw real encouragement in his Dunhill Links display, as while down the field he was at his imperious best in what's listed as three measured rounds (somewhat surprising given that the DP World Tour only had shot tracking at one of the three courses).
That should give Puig the boost he needs returning to Spain, where his record is fantastic. It reads 34-5-27-3-12-19-9-5, the first in that list a year before he turned pro. Over more than a hundred tournament starts so far in his career, he's gaining twice as many strokes per round on home soil as he is everywhere else.
Last year he followed 50th in the Dunhill Links with ninth here and, a winner on the DP World Tour since who then contended for the Dubai Desert Classic as an 18/1 shot, he returns ready to bag his first silverware on Spanish soil. This is the most suitable challenge he's faced by far since the LIV Golf season ended, and it's a fine chance to remind everyone that he's going to make a strong bid for the Ryder Cup side next year.
Angel can come of age
Jose Ballester is a similarly raw, powerful youngster but having outperformed Puig in Scotland, he's shorter than he perhaps ought to be in the betting. Ballester offered hints of what he can do at Club de Campo when driving the ball impressively last year but his results in the event are ultimately poor (MC-55) and prior to the Dunhill Links, he'd only scraped through First Stage qualifying at a very low level.
My view is that ANGEL AYORA's form carries more substance and after a perfectly sound 28th at Le Golf National, he can step forward at this more suitable course where the full force of his driving can be unleashed.
It is undeniably true that almost everyone who has been following the progress of this sweet-swinging youngster expected a little more of him as we edge towards the end of his second season on the DP World Tour, but really all that's missing now is a win.
Ayora has amassed 17 top-10 finishes since earning membership at close to a one-in-four strike-rate, an excellent return at any level, but the absence of silverware will be held against him until he takes care of business. That is fair; it goes with the territory of being talked about as a potentially world-class player, one invited along to Adare Manor for the recent Ryder Cup team-building trip.
Whether you think he's behind schedule or not, the potential is there for all to see and that applies as well to ninth place here last year. Ayora ranked eighth off-the-tee, 13th with his approaches and holed enough putts, but some sloppy work around the green cost him a higher finish. Still, he did what so many champions here do and dominated the scoring holes, playing the par-fives in an average of 4.0 strokes and finishing with a birdie at the 18th too.
Returning a year later he's definitely improved with his short-game and I am drawn to the way the putter has clicked lately. Ayora has gained strokes four starts running now but it's nine in a row that his putting has improved week-on-week. That's unlikely to extend to 10 after he ranked 10th in France, but around this place I really don't think it needs to and anything inside the top 30 might be enough.
Ayora can dominate those scoring holes off the tee once again, lean on his red-hot putting when he does miss a green, and threaten to get off the mark in style. Great golfers tend to do that – think Rahm at Torrey Pines – and having turned 22 last weekend, Ayora very much has the potential to become one in time. Keep the faith is my message.
There are cases to be made for any number of players near the front of this market including Ludvig Aberg, the de facto favourite should Rahm withdraw. But among them, it was only Tom McKibbin who I found difficult to omit based on a strong performance here last year, the fact that it so obviously suits, and the fact Wentworth may not. He could easily bounce back from a narrow missed cut there.
Sergio Garcia is the same price for this as he was when selected at Crans a few weeks ago and his record in Spain on the LIV circuit reads 10-1-10-4, but that's at his beloved Valderrama and he was a shade disappointing here last year, as he was in Switzerland. It will be aggravating if he wins, but that's a risk I'm prepared to accept.
Next on my list are two relative outsiders, starting with HENNIE DU PLESSIS.
The South African made a blistering start to the season and hit the crossbar several times when the DP World Tour headed that way, but it's his runner-up finish at Eichenried which catches the eye.
Du Plessis really ought to have won in Munich and the course is similar in both altitude and aesthetic to this one. It throws up some handy form links, too, with Dan Brown close to a course double which Penge denied him, the latter having been 11th and ninth on his last two starts there.
With Pavon also boasting a couple of top-10s at Eichenried it's a connection I like and one that Du Plessis also helps support. He was eighth here at Club de Campo four years ago, ranking inside the top five both off the tee and with the putter, a formula which is particularly effective at this course. When returning a year later the putter was stone cold, but his long-game remained excellent and he was again among the pick of the drivers.
Averaging 1.33 strokes-gained off-the-tee in six rounds, Du Plessis seems to like the place and we should remember that his form coming in back in 2022 was poor. He is undoubtedly a better player now and while 35th last week may not leap off the page, it doesn't have to. Besides, a level-par closing nine on Sunday would've been enough for a top 10, so he played much better than the result for all bar the final couple of hours.
Remember, the wind was at its strongest and most biting on Sunday afternoon and Du Plessis will be much more comfortable under the controlled conditions of Madrid. No doubt we'll see some players from some of the warmer climates step up markedly for the change in conditions and this talented ball-striker could be one of them.
English duo appeal each-way
DAN BRADBURY is the other I like as while this wouldn't necessarily appear to be an ideal course for the Wakefield man, his record says otherwise.
Bradbury was 13th on debut, sixth the following year, then 39th and 30th, all of them offering some encouragement. In particular, the weekend charge he produced in 2023 having only just made the cut was eye-catching, but last year's effort was some of his best golf for several months, and the same was true in 2024 when he laid the foundations for a subsequent win in France.
This time, the schedule means he's already been to Paris and it prompted a return to his ball-striking best, ranking third in approach play but losing ground with his short game to finish 14th. Still, that was his best performance since finishing sixth in Spain back in May and it came at a lovely time given that his record here shows rounds of 63, 64, 65 and 66 and an average of 1.3 strokes-gained ball-striking per round.
As ever with Bradbury, the putter will dictate how competitive he can be but it was better at Le Golf National and he averages 0.67 strokes-gained per round across 16 played at Club de Campo. Perhaps there's something in these small greens, particularly as it means fewer lag putts, often the big weakness of the broomhandle putter.
Either way, at the prices offered we can afford to take a chance, particularly as he's a player with something of a horses-for-courses profile as demonstrated by the way he played returned to LGN last time. Hopefully Bradbury didn't celebrate Wakefield's Grand Final victory too hard at the weekend and is refreshed and ready to breathe life into his bid for a PGA Tour card.
The middle of the market, somewhere between Bradbury and Puig, is often where I like to play, but I found it difficult here. Hidalgo was soon cut along with compatriot Alejandro del Rey and while Oliver Lindell is interesting at 50s given the strength of his form this season, right now he can't make a putt.
There's a chance that this course helps Nicolai Hojgaard tighten up off the tee but he's been very poor since almost winning on the PGA Tour in May, while again there's a sea of blue next to the name of an obvious course-form option, Julien Guerrier. He loves playing in Spain but I don't mind passing up 66/1 about the veteran, who hasn't done a lot of late.
In the end then the final pick came down to Dan Brown and SAM BAIRSTOW and with the former's fitness uncertain, I'll take Bairstow at a slightly bigger price.
He doesn't have the same level of course form, but Bairstow did lead after an opening 65 last year and said, "I played here for the first time last year and I loved it." That he wasn't able to kick on was likely due to the fact that his game was in a mess at the time and had been for the best part of five months.
One year on, he's playing some of the best golf of his career. Bairstow has gone 19-10-21-MC-36-27-14-17 since the DP World Tour came out of its summer break, the missed cut all due to his short-game at Crans. Otherwise, he's been doing everything well and that continued last week. He's done everything bar turn three good rounds into four and earn himself a chance late on Sunday.
I've said already that the Dunhill Links isn't a worthwhile form guide, but Bairstow should draw plenty of encouragement from the fact that he'd only ever played poorly in it. That he was able to crack the top 20 this time, making very few mistakes along the way, is testament to the all-round quality of his game at the moment.
It's a tough time of year if you're looking for a first win, with so many quality players filling out these DP World Tour fields, but this former top-10 amateur can mix it with them at a nice each-way price.
Posted at 20:00 BST on 05/10/25
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