Our golf expert has three Europeans in his antepost staking plan for the PGA Championship, which heads to Aronimink in Pennsylvania.
Golf betting tips: PGA Championship
2pts e.w. Tommy Fleetwood at 33/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Matt Fitzpatrick at 80/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Robert MacIntyre at 125/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
If you're one of those who spent the break from professional golf first voting for Rory McIlroy to win BBC Sports Personality of the Year, then watching McIlroy's breathtaking final round to win the Masters, you're possibly the sort of person who still carries a tinge of regret following a remarkable year for arguably the greatest European golfer of all time.
That regret comes from who McIlroy beat in that Augusta play-off as Justin Rose, for the second time in less than a decade, missed out on a Green Jacket in extra holes. On both occasions, first when Sergio Garcia ended his long wait for a major, then when McIlroy ended his long wait for a career grand slam, many millions worldwide would've wished for it to be anyone but Rose who had to settle for second.
Time may prove that Rose's latest Masters heartache was his last chance to win another major, but there's no indication whatsoever that he feels that way and nor should he. Rose of course went on to win a big PGA Tour title in August then produce a pugnacious Ryder Cup performance, before ruling himself out of a switch to captaincy in 2027. His mind remains firmly on the job in hand: to capture a second major.
On that there is good news because in 2026, if he hasn't already won the Masters, he will revisit three courses which hold fond memories. Maybe that's a given when you're into your third decade as a professional, but it's striking that the PGA Championship goes to Aronimink, where he won his second PGA Tour title and almost won again in 2018, and that the Open goes to Birkdale, where it all began way back in 1998.
Shinnecock even carries some significance as that was the scene of his first US Open top 10 after winning it but it's Aronimink which looks a particularly enticing prospect for Rose, not only because of course form figures which read 1-15-2, but because of where it is. Pennsylvania is the state where he won that US Open in 2013 and having also won in Maryland and Ohio, this corner of the United States has always made him comfortable.
At a general 80/1 for the PGA Championship, Rose is tempting enough and the fact that he's so effective at Augusta is relevant. It means that he could turn up for the second major of the year having contended for the first one and, given his eye-catching course form, the best in the field in essence, it seems unlikely he'll be available at three-figure prices come May.
The trouble is that while Rose's ceiling remains just about as high as it ever was, his floor is lower. Even in producing a sustained run from July to December there was a regular struggle to piece four rounds together and you have to wonder just how short he can get in this market. I'd say 40/1 might be his absolute basement price with twice the number of places and wouldn't want to take anything less than 80s in the here and now.
By contrast, there could be a bit more mileage with ROBERT MACINTYRE and MATT FITZPATRICK, two of Rose's Ryder Cup teammates.
MacIntyre is as short as 18/1 for the Open and while that's laughable, so is the 125/1 being dangled about the current world number seven capturing the PGA Championship, a tournament he contended for when playing alongside Rose in the final group two years ago.
Having won the Dunhill Links since an excellent Ryder Cup display, which came on the heels of seventh place in the Open, it's easy to see why MacIntyre remains pigeonholed as a links golfer whose best chance of landing a major will be in the Open. To an extent, that is true: his prospects of winning one in his career would increase significantly if all four took place by the coast in the UK and Ireland.
But the closest he's come so far was here in Pennsylvania when second in the US Open, unfortunate that JJ Spaun stood tall when others would've failed to match the Scot's clubhouse target. Having also played well in the Masters, MacIntyre has form in all four majors and, a Canadian Open winner too, no longer should we be placing a limit on what he can achieve outside of his supposed comfort zone.
Sky Bet's 125/1 is plain wrong, so is the 100/1 offered by Paddy Power and Betfair, and the 66 and 80/1 offered by other major firms is perfectly acceptable too. For a final nugget of encouragement, MacIntyre played Aronimink last year as part of his Ryder Cup preparations and I feel sure that a return to another classical course in Pennsylvania will conjure positive memories of his gutsy US Open display.
Fitzpatrick meanwhile has two top-10s in the last four editions of this major and won his US Open in Massachusetts. He likes classical courses, this one isn't a brute, and he bagged two top-10s in two starts at Donald Ross layouts in 2025, perhaps significant as we head to this Ross masterpiece which was renovated by Gil Hanse in 2018.
Like MacIntyre, he enjoyed an excellent Ryder Cup and then went on to win late in the year, capturing the DP World Tour Championship for a third time, beating McIlroy in a play-off. That was the culmination of a return to form which began in earnest with eighth place behind Scottie Scheffler in this championship back in May and by the end of the year he was up to 10th in DataGolf's world rankings.
With MacIntyre 11th, these are two world-class golfers whose odds don't reflect how they were playing at the end of the 2025 season.
Further up the betting, 33/1 about TOMMY FLEETWOOD is plainly too big on current form and while I'm wary that much can and will change during the course of the next five months, right now he's the clear third best player in the game in my view. DataGolf actually have him second but with OWGR rating him third, it's pretty clear there's nobody above him beyond Scheffler and McIlroy.
Fleetwood has also now proven that he can win in the US, capturing the TOUR Championship and accompanying FedExCup before a ruthless display to win in good company in India. Come the end of the DP World Tour season, he was going off at a point or two bigger than McIlroy. The gap for this major is more than 20 points and the only justification for that can be expected regression.
I'm not so sure and as for the golf course, Fleetwood played here in 2018 and shot a Friday 62, the course record. The following day, he matched his own course record. Fleetwood was a good player back then but not the one he is now and everything appears in place for him to challenge on all fronts in 2026, the set of courses no less suitable for him than they are for Rose.
The other player I like from near the top of the market is Xander Schauffele but he's the price Fleetwood should be, so the decision is made nice and simple.
Posted at 20:00 GMT on 30/12/25
Ben Coley's golf tipping record by year
2025: +136.20pts
2024: +255.00pts
2023: +312.22pts
2022: +585.04pts
2021: +692.51pts
2020: +363.56pts
2019: -145.12pts
2018: +50.73pts
2017: +316.45pts
2016: +190.87pts
2016-2025 total: +2657.46pts
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