Golf betting tips: Final day preview of Texas Open
Golf betting tips: Valero Texas Open, Sunday April 4
2pts Charley Hoffman to win Valero Texas Open at 5/1 (General)
It would seem the mantra of late is ‘if it’s Sunday – it must be time to preview Jordan Spieth’s chances of winning again’, and once more we find ourselves in the very same position.
Spieth, whose resurgence began in January at the Waste Management Phoenix Open where he finished fourth, finds himself this week with a share of the 54-hole lead on 12-under alongside Matt Wallace. The pair then sit two shots ahead of former champion here, Charley Hoffman, who will join them in the final three-ball on Sunday.
At Phoenix, after posting a scintillating 61 on Saturday to share the lead heading into Sunday, Spieth closed out the event with a 72 for fourth place.
Since then Spieth has gone on to finish third at Pebble Beach and fourth at Bay Hill, having held legitimate chances in both events to win heading in to the final day. However, on both occasions, as was the case in Phoenix, he failed to break 70.
Winless since 2017 at Birkdale, it is understandable that Spieth initially struggled when finding himself back in the heat of the battle on a Sunday, but you would now expect a proven winner of his calibre, with a strike rate of just under 50% when holding a 54-hole lead, to be starting to feel comfortable in these situations again, and he confirmed as much in his post-round interview yesterday, saying how much calmer he felt at Pebble Beach than he did at Phoenix.
To me then, even with the prize of winning for the first time in his home state and the first time anywhere in four years, I don’t expect nerves to be a huge issue.
What might be more of a concern to Spieth backers, though, is how he has hit the ball off the tee this week, as in a tournament which has seen the last four winners finish the week in the top ten for strokes-gained-off-the-tee and the last ten all finish top-50 in Driving Accuracy, Spieth currently sits 49th and 111th in these categories respectively.
To put it bluntly, Spieth has ‘got away with it’ off the tee this week, with a combination of some superb approach play, some short game magic and a few lucky breaks from errant tee shots. 'Normal service resumed' then for Spieth, some might say, though if he's to prevail today I feel he will need to find a few more fairways than the five he did on Saturday.
None of which is to say that Spieth won’t win - if anyone can find a way to win while missing fairways it is him, but I just can’t bring myself to back him at even money.
If Spieth is not the one, in an event that has not seen a champion come from outside of the top three, or from more than two strokes back on a Sunday, since Martin Laird triumphed in 2013, it seems obvious to focus on his two playing partners, Wallace and Hoffman, and it is CHARLEY HOFFMAN who gets my vote at the odds.
Hoffman, whose most recent win came in this event five years ago, was a lot of people's fancy coming into the week as he arrived on the back of a run of form which had seen him post three top-20s in in his last five starts.
On Thursday, though, he started horrendously, going to +5 through his first 14 holes, and it looked like his race was already run for the week. A couple of birdies coming home gave him something to build on going into Friday and a best of the day 66 was followed by more of the same, with a 65 on Saturday vaulting him right into contention.
In contrast to Spieth, all parts of the Californian’s game have been firing this week. He sits second off the tee, fourth from tee to green, fifth in Driving Accuracy and 10th in approach play, the latter being particularly impressive as he lost just under two strokes in this department on Thursday. He also sits 18th for the week in putting, so there really have been no weaknesses.
With the added intensity that Sunday brings, you want the player on side who is going to put the least pressure on their overall game and, based on the performances of the front three so far this week, that man in is Hoffman. He makes plenty of appeal at the general 5/1 to overturn the two-shot deficit and I am happy to jump on board.
Click here to back Charley Hoffman with Sky Bet!
The other co-leader, Wallace is certainly not to be dismissed lightly and as a four-time winner on the European Tour there is no doubt he knows how to get the job done.
Leading the field this week from tee to green and second in approach play, the Englishman’s iron game is firing on all cylinders. However, like Spieth he has missed a few more fairways than he would have wanted, finding only seven on Saturday on his way to a 67, which was only blemished by a three-putt bogey on the 11th.
A win here for Wallace with all that comes with it would undoubtedly be huge for his career and I expect this gritty character to hang tough on Sunday against the partisan Texan crowd who will of course be 99% rooting for Spieth. My suspicion, though, is that he will come up just short and at more than twice the odds Hoffman simply makes more appeal.
Looking at the rest and although it would be fantastic to see Cameron Tringale finally get a win in his 297th start on tour, it is hard to make a case for him coming from four shots back after he laboured to a 73 on Saturday, struggling on the easier back nine, while Anirban Lahiri on 7-under and those back on 6-under surely have too much to do.
It really does look between the front three and it’s Hoffman who gets the nod.
Published at 1010 BST on 04/04/21
More from Sporting Life
- Grand National guide
- Racecards
- Fast results
- Full results and free video replays
- Horse racing news
- Horse racing tips
- Horse racing columnists
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Football and other sports tips
- Podcasts and video content
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.
MOST READ
Next Off
Fixtures & Results
