xG Premier League Review: Gameweek 15 scorelines according to expected goals

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

• We attempt to rank each match result by comparing the actual result against the range of possible game outcomes that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
• This is scaled from 0 to 100, where 100 represents those occasions where the process most closely mirrors the real scoreline and lower scores indicate a match where the scoreline is not fully reflected in the balance of chances created.

SUNDAY

Chelsea 0-1 Arsenal

• Infogol xG: 0.29 - 2.27
• Fairness rating: 90.80
• Scorers: Gabriel 63'

Gabriel scored the winner to return Arsenal to the top of the Premier League in a hard-fought 1-0 win over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.

Manager Mikel Arteta remains unbeaten in all of Arsenal’s Premier League visits to Stamford Bridge since he took the reins in December 2019, as his side left with all three points.

The central defender poked a probing goalward-bound looped effort from Bukayo Saka over the line for the only goal of the game in the 63rd minute.

Chelsea had been looking to return to winning ways in the league having been hammered 4-1 at Brighton the previous weekend, with manager Graham Potter suffering his first defeat since he took charge of the club in September.

However, the Blues struggled to impose themselves on the game, and finished with only two shots on target and just 0.29 xG.

Aston Villa 3-1 Manchester United

• Infogol xG: 0.43 - 0.55
• Fairness rating: 62.69
• Scorers: Bailey 7', Digne 11', Ramsey 49'; Ramsey (og) 45'

Unai Emery enjoyed a dream start to life in the Aston Villa hotseat as meek Manchester United fell to their first Premier League loss at Villa Park since 1995.

A run of 23 winless home league games against the Red Devils stretching 9,941 days came to an end on Sunday as Steven Gerrard’s successor oversaw a 3-1 victory in his first match in charge.

Leon Bailey struck and Lucas Digne scored a delightful free-kick within the opening 11 minutes at a rocking Villa Park, where Jacob Ramsey atoned for deflecting in a Luke Shaw strike by scoring a fine effort just after half-time for Emery’s elated side.

The result ends United’s nine-game unbeaten run in all competitions and sets up an interesting reunion in the Carabao Cup on Thursday.

Southampton 1-4 Newcastle

• Infogol xG: 1.68 - 1.26
• Fairness rating: 50.78
• Scorers: Perraud 89'; Almiron 35', Wood 58', Willock 62', Bruno Guimaraes 90+1'

Miguel Almiron scored his seventh goal in as many games as Newcastle beat Southampton 4-1 at St Mary’s.

The Paraguay international continued his hot streak in front of goal, his seven strikes coming from a total of 2.9 xG, breaking the deadlock in the 35th minute.

Substitute Chris Wood, who replaced Callum Wilson at half-time, doubled the visitors’ advantage in the 58th minute before Joe Willock quickly made it 3-0.

Romain Perraud pulled one back for the hosts late but the celebrations were short-lived as Bruno Guimaraes fired in the Magpies’ fourth a minute later.

West Ham 1-2 Crystal Palace

• Infogol xG: 0.27 - 1.01
• Fairness rating: 98.17
• Scorers: Benrahma 20'; Zaha 41', Olise 90+4'

Michael Olise curled home a stoppage-time winner as Crystal Palace finally broke their duck on the road with a dramatic 2-1 victory at West Ham.

Said Benrahma had fired West Ham into the lead with a sizzling strike before Wilfried Zaha hauled Palace level before the interval.

There was VAR controversy 10 minutes from the end when Michail Antonio went down after being tugged by Marc Guehi and referee Paul Tierney gave a penalty, only to overturn his decision after consulting the pitchside monitor.

Instead, with the clock running down, Antonio wastefully chipped a cross into the arms of Palace keeper Vicente Guaita and within seconds, the visitors had broken up the other end and scored.

It meant West Ham’s six-match winning streak at home came to an end, while Palace secured their first away win in the Premier League this season.

Tottenham 1-2 Liverpool

• Infogol xG: 2.11 - 1.30
• Fairness rating: 63.71
• Scorers: Kane 70'; Salah 11', 40'

Liverpool survived a trademark second-half rally from Tottenham to claim a crucial 2-1 win and boost their Premier League top-four hopes.

Mo Salah’s first-half double put Jurgen Klopp’s side on course for all three points in the capital but Harry Kane reduced the deficit with 20 minutes left.

Antonio Conte’s Spurs pushed for a late leveller but were thwarted by a dogged Liverpool, who closed the gap between the sides to seven points and with a game in hand on the fourth-placed hosts.

After struggling for consistency for much of the season, Klopp would have been encouraged by a professional display to win their first away league game of the season and back up Tuesday’s triumph over Napoli.

SATURDAY

Leeds 4-3 Bournemouth

• Infogol xG: 2.43 - 1.80
• Fairness rating: 97.39
• Rodrigo 3', Greenwood 60', Cooper 68', Summerville 84' | Tavernier 7', Billing 19', Solanke 49'

Leeds came from behind to secure a remarkable 4-3 victory over Bournemouth at Elland Road.

The Whites had taken the lead in the opening few minutes from the penalty spot, but they found themselves behind less than 20 minutes later thanks to efforts from Marcus Tavernier and Philip Billing.

Dominic Solanke's second-half effort looked like it may have wrapped up the result, but Leeds fought back led by substitute Sam Greenwood.

The midfielder found the back of the net with a strike from distance, before his corner was converted by captain Liam Cooper.

With 84 minutes on the clock, Crysencio Summerville - who was the hero in last week's win over Liverpool at Anfield - struck again to give the home side all three points.

It means that Leeds have returned above 2.00 xG in each of their last three home games, although this was the only one they have won during that period.

Manchester City 2-1 Fulham

• Infogol xG: 2.37 - 0.90
• Fairness rating: 92.15
• Alvarez 16', Haaland 90+5' | Pereira 28'

Manchester City needed a late penalty to gain victory over Fulham at the Etihad.

Julian Alvarez's early goal looked like the match would go according to script, but the visitors proved a much tougher test than Pep Guardiola would have expected.

Joao Cancelo was given a straight red inside the opening half hour, piling further misery on fantasy football players after Erling Haaland and Phil Foden were both benched, with Andreas Pereira converting the resulting penalty.

Haaland came off the bench in the second-half, and thought he'd netted a winner before VAR ruled it out for offside.

In the final seconds of the game, the forward did score his 23rd goal of the season after converting a late spot kick.

It makes it back-to-back games where City have returned more than 2.00 xG, having not done so in their five contests prior to the midweek win over Sevilla.

Wolves 2-3 Brighton

• Infogol xG: 1.40 - 2.15
• Fairness rating: 99.04
• Guedes 12', Neves 35' | Lallana 10', Mitoma 44', Groß 83'

Brighton came from behind to make it back-to-back victories with a 3-2 win away at Wolves.

An action-packed first-half saw both teams score twice before the break, with Nelson Semedo also receiving a straight red card.

Wolves were limited to a few low-probability chances in the second-half, and Brighton managed to net a late winner through midfielder Pascal Groß.

While only winning two of their seven games under Roberto De Zerbi, the Seagulls have posted the higher xG tally in five of those - averaging out at 1.83 xG per contest.

For Wolves, who confirmed the appointment of Julen Lopetegui before the game, they remain 19th in the Premier League table.

Nottingham Forest 2-2 Brentford

• Infogol xG: 1.64 - 1.40
• Fairness rating: 95.27
• Gibbs-White 20', Zanka OG 90+6' | Mbeumo 45+3', Wissa 75'

Nottingham Forest snatched a point in the final minute of play as they drew 2-2 with Brentford.

Morgan Gibbs-White had fired the hosts into the lead, but Yoane Wissa's 75th minute effort looked to have won it after Bryan Mbeumo converted a penalty in first-half added time.

However, Bees defender Zanka turned the ball into his own net, but it wasn't enough to move Forest off the bottom of the table.

A positive for Forest is that this was their third-highest xG total of the season, even more so when we consider their most came in the recent home win over Liverpool.

Points are vital for Steve Cooper's side though, and they've gained four from their last three outings.

Everton 0-2 Leicester

• Infogol xG: 1.54 - 2.05
• Fairness rating: 67.35
• Tielemans 45', Barnes 86'

Leicester's positive recent form continued as they made it three wins from four with a 2-0 victory away at Everton.

Youri Tielemans netted from range - the second consecutive away game where he's scored from outside the area - before Harvey Barnes confirmed the result with a strike late on.

While much was made of Everton's defensive record in the early stages of the season, the underlying numbers proved that it wasn't sustainable.

Six of Everton's last seven Premier League games have seen the opposition post at least 1.50 xG - averaging out at 1.84 xG.

It's a worry trend for Frank Lampard, who have an expected goal difference (xGD) of -4.1 across their last five contests.

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