We round up the Premier League action in a less traditional fashion, delivering the xG (expected goals) scoreline, an Infogol fairness rating and noteworthy data points.
What are Infogol fairness ratings?
- We attempt to rank each match result by comparing the actual result against the range of possible game outcomes that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
- This is scaled from 0 to 100, where 100 represents those occasions where the process most closely mirrors the real scoreline and lower scores indicate a match where the scoreline is not fully reflected in the balance of chances created.
Arsenal 5-0 Nottingham Forest
- Infogol xG: 2.65 - 0.27
- Fairness rating: 93.01
- Martinelli (5'), Nelson (49', 52'), Partey (57'), Odegaard (78')
Arsenal returned to the top of the Premier League table in style with a 5-0 hammering of Nottingham Forest.
Gabriel Martinelli opened the scoring early, with substitute Reiss Nelson having a huge impact from the bench, scoring twice and assisting another after Bukayo Saka went off injured.
Forest have now tied Bournemouth for the most goals conceded in England's top-flight this season. Steve Cooper's side also have the second-highest xGA figure, with only Fulham (26.6) sitting above Forest and their 25.2.
The Gunners are averaging a remarkable +2.19 xGD per home game this season, with their attack averaging chances worth 2.90 xG per outing.
Manchester United 1-0 West Ham
- Infogol xG: 1.53 - 1.06
- Fairness rating: 80.03
- Rashford 38'
Marcus Rashford netted his seventh goal of the season as Manchester United beat West Ham.
It continued the forward's strong showings at Old Trafford, with Rashford averaging 0.82 xG/95 in all competitions.
The result moved United to within a point of the top-four, with Erik ten Hag's men holding a game in-hand over Newcastle and Tottenham who sit in the two spots above.
Liverpool 1-2 Leeds
- Infogol xG: 2.05 - 1.74
- Fairness rating: 87.0
- Salah (14') | Rodrigo (4'), Summerville (89')
Leeds scored late to stun Anfield by inflicting a first home league defeat in 29 games for Liverpool.
Jesse Marsch's side scored early and late in the game, and were reliant upon some good goalkeeping from Illan Meslier to keep the game level before Crysencio Summerville scored the winner.
It was the same old problem for Liverpool, who's defence just doesn't look anywhere near the levels of previous seasons.
They have now conceded 1.7+ xGA in five of their last six league games, allowing an average of 2.10 xGA per game over that stretch - that's a relegation worthy process.
For context, last season's bottom side Norwich allowed 2.14 xGA per game on their way back to the Championship.
The result leaves Jurgen Klopp's side ninth in the table and eight points off the top four, while for Leeds, the win ends a run of eight without victory and eases the pressure on manager Marsch, his side up to 15th.
Fulham 0-0 Everton
- Infogol xG: 1.97 - 1.29
- Fairness rating: 86.2
Fulham extended their unbeaten run to four games following a goalless draw with Everton, though the game wasn't devoid of chances.
The two teams combined for 3.26 xG, and there was just a 3.8% chance the match would end goalless based on Infogol's calculations.
Fulham continue to rack up impressive numbers offensively, averaging 1.58 xGF per game this season, which ranks them in the top half of the Premier League.
Brighton 4-1 Chelsea
- Infogol xG: 2.63 - 1.12
- Fairness rating: 87.0
- Trossard (5'), Loftus-Cheek OG (14'), Chalobah OG (42') , Gross (90+2) | Havertz (48')
Brighton were good value for their victory over Chelsea, a win that ended former boss Graham Potter's unbeaten start to his new job.
The Seagulls were 3-0 at the break, benefitting from two own goals, and despite pulling one back early in the second half, Chelsea failed to create much else.
In fact, the Blues have been displaying worrying signs in attack of late. In their last six league games, Chelsea have averaged just 1.18 non-pen xGF per game. That really is a poor process.
As for Brighton, the dominance of this victory from an xG standpoint is nothing new, with the Seagulls boasting a stellar process at the Amex this term.
After this game, their xGD per game in front of their own fans reads +1.39, bettered only by Manchester City, Arsenal and Newcastle.
They are a home team to be feared.
Newcastle 4-0 Aston Villa
- Infogol xG: 4.45 - 0.31
- Fairness rating: 98.9
- Wilson (pen 45+6', 56'), Joelinton (59'), Almiron (67')
Newcastle were utterly dominant at St. James' Park, thrashing Aston Villa and continuing their sensational start to the season.
The Magpies are flying at the moment, particularly at home, with their underlying numbers in front of their own fans simply mind-boggling.
Eddie Howe's side have averaged 2.62 xGF and 1.09 xGA per home game this term, hitting 4.0+ xGF twice now, and those are firmly elite numbers.
For Aston Villa, they went from racking up 3.48 xGF in a 4-0 home win to allowing 4.45 xGA in a 4-0 away defeat.
This game was actually their worst defensive display since December 2019 based on xGA, so close to beating the 4.53 they shipped at Leicester.
Unai Emery has a job on his hands, with the fairness rating of 98.9% showing just how well the 4-0 scoreline reflected the game.
Bournemouth 2-3 Tottenham
- Infogol xG: 0.96 - 2.58
- Fairness rating: 86.1
- Moore (22', 50') | Sessengon (57'), Davies (73'), Bentancur (90+2')
Tottenham came back from 2-0 down at half-time to beat Bournemouth, a result that eases pressure on manager Antonio Conte.
The Cherries scored their two best chances of the game, and did a reasonable job in limiting Spurs to low-probability efforts, something that has proven to be a real issue in recent weeks, but a late winner was fully deserved.
Their away form and process has been a problem this season, having won just three of seven, but after a shocking first half, Spurs managed to turn things around after a much more attack-minded approach.
Bournemouth continue to show why they are ranked bottom of the xG table based on expected points (xP), with their attacking process a major concern.
If they were to continue on their same pace of chance creation, the 22/23 Cherries would set a new Infogol era record for being the worst Premier League attacking team ever seen.
They are averaging 0.75 xGF per game, with the previous worst held by Aston Villa's 15/16 team with 0.83.
Brentford 1-1 Wolves
- Infogol xG: 1.39 - 0.79
- Fairness rating: 85.6
- Mee (50') | Neves (52')
Two goals in the space of two minutes - one each - meant the spoils were shared at the Gtech Community Stadium, a fair result based on the quality of chances created in the game.
Wolves saw Diego Costa sent off late, as their attacking woes continue. They have now scored just six goals in 13 league games and remain in the bottom three after the defeat.
For Brentford, they did win the xG battle on the day, meaning Thomas Frank's side have done so in 19 of 26 home games since promotion.
Crystal Palace 1-0 Southampton
- Infogol xG: 0.96 - 1.29
- Fairness rating: 61.2
- Eduoard (38')
Crystal Palace bounced back from a 3-0 defeat at Everton with a hard-fought, narrow victory over Southampton.
A first half goal proved enough, but it was far from a vintage display from the Eagles, who lost the xG battle.
Southampton's issues in attack continue to make their life difficult, with the Saints averaging just 0.98 xGF per game across their last nine contests.
It was a third straight home win for Palace against bottom half teams.
Leicester 0-1 Manchester City
- Infogol xG: 0.79 - 0.73
- Fairness rating: 68.2
- De Bruyne (49')
Manchester City returned to the summit of the Premier League table after a hard-fought win over Leicester in a game of no big chances of note.
The game was decided by a moment of magic from Kevin De Bruyne, who hit a 49th minute free-kick into the top corner, a chance that had an xG of just 0.05.
Star striker Erling Haaland was absent altogether after being subbed at half-time in midweek, and City did miss his threat.
However, this was another poor away creative performance, something that has become a theme in recent weeks based on the underlying numbers.
Across City's last five away matches in the Premier League and Champions League, they have generated an average of just 0.86 non-penalty xGF per game. That's nowhere near the level we expect to see from Pep Guardiola's side.
Fortunately, their defence has been solid in that period, but if they are to be crowned champions again, their process on the road needs improve a great deal.
