World Cup final cheat sheet: Argentina v France stats to back
James Cantrill picks out six stats to back in the World Cup final between Argentina v France - including a recommended 9/1 fourfold.
- Antoine Griezmann 2+ tackles
- Lionel Messi 1+ tackle
- Jules Kounde 1+ shot
- Nicolas Otamendi 2+ tackles
BACK OUR 9/1 BUILDABET WITH SKY BET
What does the Infogol expected goals (xG) model predict?
- Predicted % chance: Argentina 36% | Draw 29% | France 35%
- Over/under 2.5 goals: Over 41% | Under598%
- Both teams to score (BTTS): Yes 47% | No 53%
Antoine Griezmann 2+ tackles
If it was not for a certain Lionel Messi having a direct hand in eight goals on route to the final, Antoine Griezmann would be amongst the frontrunners for the Golden Ball.
He tops France's charts for assists (3) and key passes per game (3.5) though his all round play has being outstanding and it is his defensive output that interests me here.
The utility man has averaged 1.8 tackles per game, hitting this line of two al bar one of his five starts.
Against England, he was pivotal in disrupting their rhythm in midfield, racking up two tackles and three fouls.
And I expect him to play a similar role in the final on Sunday.
Lionel Messi 1+ tackle
For the second time in his career, Lionel Messi finds himself within one game of the World Cup.
This could be his last and best opportunity to win it and without it he cannot be held alongside Diego Maradona by his people.
With so much on the line, he'll pick up more defensive work and could add to the three tackles he has already completed this tournament.
Jules Kounde 1+ shots
Jules Kounde has racked up four attempts on goal in as many starts for Les Bleus.
Operating on the right hand side of a back four for Didier Deschamps, he has amply had ample opportunity to try his luck from range with half of his efforts coming from outside of the box.
Given his height, he is also a threat from dead ball situations, which is where his other two efforts have come via.
Nicolas Otamendi 2+ tackles
The battle between Nicolas Otamendi and Oliver Giroud should be a fascinating one.
The Argentina defender is not one to shirk a tackle averaging 1.7 and having at least two in half of his six starts.
It is fouls that interest me here given the physicality of his opposite number.
Otamendi has met this line if four of his last five appearances for his nation, committing 11 fouls over that period.
Lionel Messi Card
It is the only thing Messi has left to win and this pressure appears to be getting to him.
He has committed eight fouls en route to the final and was booked in the quarters.
Given his chunky price, this bulks up the bet builder substantially.
Kylian Mbappe Card
For all his ability, Kylian Mbappe is a petulant character.
He has picked up five cards for his nation, 40% of which have come in the knock out stages of the 2018 World Cup where he was booked in the quarters and the semi final.
He committed three fouls in the last round and would not put a card past him here.
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (16/12/22)
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