Jake Pearson previews the Midlands derby between Wolverhampton Wanderers and Aston Villa, providing a best bet and score prediction.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Wolves to win at 2/1 (General)
Having let a two-goal lead slip as these two met at Villa Park earlier in the season, Wolves running out 3-2 winners on that occasion, Aston Villa will be desperate for revenge over their local rivals.
These are two quite different teams to the ones that met back in October, however, Wolves in the midst of a battle for European football, while Villa, now under the tutelage of Steven Gerrard, are just one place – albeit ten points – behind their Old Gold enemies.
Throw in the Phillipe Coutinho factor as well, and Villa are almost unrecognisable from the team flirting with relegation under Dean Smith.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
Wolves 15/8 | Draw 11/5 | Aston Villa 6/4
These two have both experienced their ups and downs of late, but actually they have picked up 15 and 14 points respectively over the last ten matches and are playing at a similar level at present and actually, it is a little surprising to see the visitors priced up as the favourites heading into this fixture.
Wolves will be without their main striker Raul Jimenez, who is suspended after picking up a red card against Leeds in their last Premier League outing, and while that is a big blow, whether it is enough to swing the tie entirely in the favour of the away side remains questionable.
As mentioned, the gap between the two in the league may only be one place, but there are ten points – though Villa do have a game in hand – separating the two Midlands clubs, and though the perception is that Villa are a much better outfit under Gerrard, and admittedly they are, Wolves have still picked up more points per game (1.58) than their visitors (1.44) since the former Liverpool skipper’s appointment.
Wolves have been the inferior outfit this season, and even if Villa are arguably in a slightly better vein of form at present, the price swing in this fixture is far too drastic.
Two equally matched teams playing at a neutral venue would both be given a 36% chance of victory (7/4). When home advantage (which is worth 0.2 of a goal according to the scoring patterns in the Premier League season) is accounted for, the home team have a 41% chance of victory and the away side a 32% chance.
The current prices for this match give Wolves a 35% chance of victory, and Villa a 39% chance, meaning the bookmakers make the away side 0.35 of a goal better than Wolves.
If all of this is too mathematical, the question to ask is, are Aston Villa a better team than Wolves?
If you perceive Wolves to be the better team, or even equal to Aston Villa, then a price of 2/1 for WOLVES TO WIN is a very good price, and that is the recommended selection in this fixture.
Wolves v Aston Villa best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Wolves to win at 2/1 (General)
Score prediction: Wolves 2-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1635 GMT (30/03/21)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
