Jake Osgathorpe gives his verdict on the latest round of Premier League fixtures
This midweek's Premier League Correct Score Predictor

Premier League correct score tips and predictions for Gameweek 16


Jake Osgathorpe uses Infogol's expected goals (xG) model to help predict the Premier League correct scores for Gameweek 16, as well as rounding up the latest kick-off and TV information.

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Scroll to bottom for this week's Premier League TV schedule in full


Correct Score: Brentford 2-2 Watford (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

  • Sky Sports: Friday, 20:00

Brentford had to settle for a point at Leeds on Sunday, conceding a deserved late equaliser, meaning they have won just one of eight.

They have been a fun watch in that time though, averaging 1.41 xGF and 1.66 xGA per game, with chances at both ends the norm now for Thomas Frank's side after a stingy start.

Watford were comprehensively thumped by Manchester City last weekend, their sixth defeat in eight games under Claudio Ranieri - though they have played six of last seasons top eight in that period.

Based on expected points, the Hornets have been the 13th best team in the league since Ranieri was appointed, and that's with tough fixtures, with their attacking process of 1.65 xGF per game to be feared.

Defensively, questions remain, allowing 1.99 xGA per game under the Italian, so we should expect plenty of goal mouth action on Friday night.


Correct Score: Manchester City 2-0 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)

  • BT Sport: Saturday, 12:30

Manchester City were in cruise control against Watford last weekend, racking up a whopping 3.61 xGF on their way to a 3-1 success that means they go into GW16 top of the Premier League table.

Defence continues to be their best asset, averaging 0.69 xGA per game this season, but despite some big-named absentees, their attack has started to fire at a consistent rate.

Wolves's defence has the ability to halt City's attacking progress, but Bruno Lage's side have struggled majorly in attack over the past five games.

The Old Gold have averaged just 0.58 xGF per game over that period - which included games against two of the current bottom three - being completely stifled by Liverpool in a deserved loss last weekend (xG: WOL 0.13 - 2.65 LIV).

Their defensive process of 1.26 xGA per game ranks as the sixth best in the league, and should see Wolves avoiding a hiding at the Etihad.

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Correct Score: Arsenal 2-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

  • Saturday, 15:00

Arsenal have lost three of their last four, with the common denominator being that all three of those matches have come on the road. As stated numerous times in this column, the Gunners are still poor travellers, as we saw on Monday Night Football.

Fortunately then, for Mikel Arteta, this game comes at the Emirates where his side have been excellent this term. Only Manchester City and Liverpool have collected more xPoints per than Arsenal when playing at home this season.

Arsenal xPts home

Their xG process shows that their best stuff in attack comes in front of their own fans, and this game should see similar (2.16 xGF, 1.10 xGA per game).

Southampton are winless in four after conceding a very late equaliser to Brighton last weekend, a deserved result in the end as the Saints continue to ship chances.

Ralph Hasenhuttl's side have looked defensively vulnerable this season, especially on the road, allowing 1.82 xGA per game, which perhaps explains why they have lost four of seven away games.


Correct Score: Chelsea 2-0 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

  • Saturday, 15:00

Chelsea lost their grip on top spot in the Premier League last weekend after a surprising defeat at West Ham, but it was an uncharacteristically sloppy display from Tuchel's side that cost them.

After conceding three for only the second time in Tuchel's 34 league games in charge. The Blues have only conceded twice in a match three times in that period, highlighting their defensive dominance under the German.

They have won just four of seven at at Stamford Bridge, though they have won the xG battle in all but one (v MCI) of those games, with their xG process excellent, averaging 2.16 xGF and 0.96 xGA per game.

Leeds should prove no match for their hosts here, despite being on a decent run of form, losing one of seven at Antonio Conte's Tottenham.

Away from home though, Marcelo Bielsa's side have struggled, averaging 1.05 xGF and 1.70 xGA per game, with only the current bottom three and Arsenal collecting fewer xPoints per game than Leeds (0.99) on their travels.

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Correct Score: Liverpool 2-0 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

  • Saturday, 15:00

Liverpool left it very late last week at Wolves, but ultimately gained a deserved victory, with the Reds peppering their hosts goal (xG: WOL 0.13 - 2.65 LIV).

They continue to be an attacking juggernaut, as Klopp's side have averaged a whopping 2.76 xGF per game this season, but defensively they look assured too, allowing 1.06 xGA per game.

The Reds have won 10 of 15 league games this season, with nine of this wins coming with an accompanying shutout.

Steven Gerrard's return to Anfield will be the talk of the town, but the way in which he has improved his new side in a short space of time should be vocalised more.

Villa had averaged 1.66 xGA per game under Dean Smith, in Gerrard's four games - which has featured games against Man City and Leicester - they have allowed 0.97 xGA per game.

xga since gerrard

This, a visit to the leagues best attacking team in their back yard, is the biggest test yet for Gerrard's side, and while I don't think they will get blown out, it's tough to see them getting a result.


Correct Score: Norwich 0-2 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

  • Sky Sports: Saturday, 17:30

Norwich lost for the first time under Dean Smith last weekend, going down 3-0 at Tottenham in a game which they conceded plenty of chances (xG: TOT 2.14 - 1.25 NOR).

That is an issue that has plagued the Canaries all season long, with their defence simply not good enough, allowing an average of 1.83 xGA per game.

Against the better teams in the league (last seasons top eight), Norwich have been pummelled. In six such contests they have conceded 21 goals while netting once, allowing an average of 2.34 xGA per game.

Manchester United, ultimately, fall into that category of being one of the better teams in the league, and under new coach Ralf Ragnick, I'm expecting to see them improve week on week.

The immediate positives were there for all to see against Crystal Palace in their 1-0 win last weekend, with the new coach implementing his shape and ideas in a matter of days.

They looked better defensively, more capable of dealing with transitions of a dangerous counter-attacking side, and the chance creation will come. A comfortable away win is expected.


Correct Score: Brighton 1-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)

  • Sunday, 14:00

Brighton are making a habit of drawing football matches, with their last two 1-1 draws coming thanks to added-time equalisers after they had lost a player to injury having already made three subs.

They deserved a point in both outings at West Ham and Southampton, but have deserved wins in their last two home matches against Leeds and Newcastle based on xG.

Brighton home form

If we exclude their pasting at the hands of Manchester City, Brighton's home xG process reads a rather impressive 1.69 xGF and 0.83 xGA per game. Like last season, where Potter's side had the third best home xG process, the Amex is a very difficult place to go.

Tottenham prepare for this game with some potential key absentees following a covid outbreak at the club, which could make this an even trickier game.

Fortunately, Spurs now have Antonio Conte at the helm, and he should be able to navigate this situation better than his predecessors, plus, the Italian has Spurs trending in the right direction.

They have won their last three league games under his guidance, and based on xG, those three displays have been their three best attacking performances of the season.

However, at the time of writing we don't know who the players are that will be missing. If it turns out to be key attacking personnel, then I wouldn't at all be surprised to see the Seagulls eek out a win this game.

Even if Spurs have a full compliment, I still fancy the hosts to get a result.


Correct Score: Burnley 1-2 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

  • Sunday, 14:00

Burnley's defeat at Newcastle last weekend was a very timid one. I expected them to create more chances against a vulnerable Newcastle defence, but they mustered only 0.63 xG in defeat.

They have done their best work at Turf Moor this season, with their xG process a very good 1.67 xGF and 1.31 xGA per game, but they have issues, notably the fitness of Maxwel Cornet and Ben Mee.

West Ham beat Chelsea last weekend, snapping a three game winless run in style against the then-league leaders with a 3-2 victory.

They created good chances on that occasion, something that had stalled after a hot start, but their xG process is still good enough to rank them as the league's fourth best team (1.63 xGF, 1.41 xGA per game).

David Moyes's side have won four of their seven away games, and should prove too strong for Burnley on Sunday.

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Correct Score: Leicester 2-2 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

  • Sky Sports: Sunday, 14:00

Leicester are in a real rut. Their 2-1 defeat at Aston Villa was the fourth straight league game in which they have conceded two or more goals.

Since the 1st of November, they have been statistically the worst defensive team in the league, allowing 2.34 xGA per game across their five outings.

Leicester xGA in epl since nov 1st

Their attack hasn't been playing at a high enough level to bail them out either, generating just 1.31 xGF per game over that period, so every game is a dangerous one for the Foxes at the minute.

Newcastle will therefore be fancying their chances of following up their first win of the season, a 1-0 success against Burnley.

The victory was deserved, with the Magpies playing a good all round game in attack and defence (xG: NEW 1.78 - 0.63 BUR). Something for Eddie Howe's side to build upon.

Attack hasn't been a massive issue this season for them, with it being their porous defence that has been shipping chances left and right, so we could be in for an entertaining clash on Sunday.


Correct Score: Crystal Palace 1-0 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

  • Sky Sports: Sunday, 16:30

Crystal Palace are on a three game skid following a 1-0 defeat at Manchester United last weekend, a game in which they again struggled to create decent chances.

They have created less than 1.3 xGF in all of those three losses, and that is a major worry after such a hot start to the campaign. However, at Selhurst Park they have been excellent this term, averaging 1.64 xGF and 0.66 xGA per game.

Only Manchester City (0.43) have been better defensively at home than Palace.

Everton ended an eight game winless run by beating Arsenal 2-1 on Monday, a deserved win clinched by a stunning Demarai Gray strike. The effort and application was there, but the quality wasn't for the most part, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see them struggle on the road here.

They have allowed 1.45 xGA per game on their travels which is why they have won only once in seven, and Palace's strong home process should see them get back to winning ways.


This week's Premier League kick-off times (BST) and TV schedule

Friday, December 10

  • Brentford v Watford - 20:00 on Sky Sports Premier League

Saturday, December 11

  • Manchester City v Wolves - 12:30 on BT Sport 1
  • Arsenal v Southampton - 15:00
  • Chelsea v Leeds - 15:00
  • Liverpool v Aston Villa - 15:00
  • Norwich v Manchester United - 17:30 on Sky Sports Premier League

Sunday, December 12

  • Brighton v Tottenham - 14:00
  • Burnley v West Ham - 14:00
  • Leicester v Newcastle - 14:00 on Sky Sports Premier League
  • Crystal Palace v Everton - 16:30 on Sky Sports Premier League
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