Daniel James celebrates Wales' winner
Daniel James celebrates Wales' winner

Euro 2020: Are Wales peaking in time for the European Championship?


Wales were winless in their four friendlies before Euro 2016 writes Joe Rindl. Failure to win against France and Albania changes nothing as they prepare for their opening match against Switzerland.

Wales faced Sweden in their final friendly before the 2016 Euros. They were rubbish. Outclassed from the first minute to the last in a 3-0 loss.

Ultimately though Wales made the semi-finals of the summer's tournament and Sweden finished bottom of their group. Don't look too much in to friendlies folks, it's about who wants it more on any given day. Five years ago, Wales had their eyes in the prize and it seemed like nobody could stop them.

Can Wales rekindle fighting spirit?

When reliving Wales' 2016 European Championship campaign most think of Hal Robson-Kanu’s amazing Cruyff-turn goal against Belgium. Few will remember a patriotic, call to arms in a throwaway line in a pre-match press conference.

It came from Gareth Bale ahead of Wales' group game with England. “I think we’ve got a lot more passion and pride about us than them,” he said. The then two-time Champions League winner essentially declared Wales wanted it more. England would go on to win the match, but Wales would top the group.

In hindsight his analysis was correct. The dragons had a spirit and togetherness England and many other sides lacked.

When Sam Vokes made it 3-1 to Wales against Belgium, guaranteeing progression to the final four, the players, supporters and coaching staff - which included a sports psychologist - erupted with joy. It was there for all to see. Passion: tick. Pride: tick.

Euro 2020 betting guide
CLICK TO READ: Exclusive Euro 2020 betting guide

Fast-forward five years and many are questioning whether Wales’ ethos from their last international tournament remains. Captain Ashley Williams retired in 2020 and manager Chris Coleman walked away after failing to qualify for the World Cup in 2017.

Former Manchester United winger Ryan Giggs was named his successor and despite no full-time managerial experience, and Wales Women’s manager Jayne Ludlow criticising his appointment, things got off to a rosy start with Euros qualification sealed early.

But in April 2021, Giggs was charged with actual bodily harm and common assault against two women, as well as coercive and controlling behaviour. Though he denied the charges in court, assistant Rob Page has been at the helm since November and will take charge this summer.

Rob Page has made a fine start as Wales' caretaker manager
Rob Page has made a fine start as Wales' caretaker manager

Can Wales rely on Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey?

Do Page and the old guard have the ability to take the embers of the 2016 campaign and spawn another underdog run? Wales are in a group with Italy, Switzerland and Turkey. Infogol’s model sees them having a 50% chance of making it to the knockouts. Around 32% of the time they get eliminated at the round of 16 stage.

In Bale and Aaron Ramsey Wales boast two world class players most nations can only dream of. Problem is, the pair aren’t exactly having the season of their lives.

WHAT IS EXPECTED GOALS? USE xG TO INCREASE PROFITS IN FOOTBALL BETTING

Bale’s underlying Premier League numbers do at least offer some joy. The Wales skipper played just 10 matches, plus 10 as a sub and scored 11 goals despite having an xG of just 6.51. Bale creates goals out of nothing. But will his lack of game time be an issue?

Ramsey has had a frustrating campaign too. There have been very few starts for Juventus this term and the former Arsenal midfielder remains in the ‘needs to improve' camp. The stats don’t lie, Ramsey has averaged just 0.36 xG and 0.27 xA in Serie A this season.

CLICK HERE for Sky Bet's daily Euro 2020 RABs
CLICK HERE to build a RAB with Sky Bet during Euro 2020

Wales players to watch

But this is Wales, a team that prides itself on being greater than the sum of its parts. In the 2016 tournament Bale and Ramsey scored a combined four goals. Neither found the net after the group stages and yet Wales still managed four knockout goals.

To analyse Wales’ chances you need to examine their supporting cast. There’s a new generation waiting in the wings hungry for a first appearance at a major international tournament.

Harry Wilson and Aaron Ramsey have had very different seasons in the Championship and Serie A respectively
Harry Wilson and Aaron Ramsey have had very different seasons in the Championship and Serie A respectively

Starting at the back, defenders Ethan Ampadu and Joe Rodon both impressed in national team appearances. Sheffield United's Ampadu, on loan from Chelsea, started five European Championship qualifiers with a tackle completion rate of 75% and a stunning pass completion rate of 84%. Joe Rodon may have struggled for minutes at Tottenham, but in a red shirt he’s helped Wales to four clean sheets from six matches this term.

Moving to midfield and Cardiff’s Harry Wilson, on loan from Liverpool, has had a fantastic 12 months, netting seven goals from an xG of 6.57 in the Championship, as well as producing 11 assists from an xA of 7.51. I expect him to be joined by Leeds’ Tyler Roberts in the final squad, a player who has played in midfield as well as his favoured up front position for his Premier League club.

England midfielder Mason Mount
READ: Fantasy Football tips for the Euros

And out wide, Manchester United’s Daniel James may only have three Premier League goals this season, but he has been a superstar for Wales. The 23-year-old netted crucial, composed winners against Finland in the Nations League and the Czech Republic in World Cup qualifying in the last eight months.

If Wales were to go on another deep, historic run it is these tournament debutants, not Bale and Ramsey, who will provide the difference. The ability is there. Fingers crossed for pride and passion. Pob lwc.


More from Sporting Life

Like what you've read?

MOST READ FOOTBALL

Sporting Life
Join for free!
Access to exclusive features all for FREE - No monthly subscription fee
Race Replays
My stable horse tracker
giftOffers and prize draws
newsExclusive content

FOOTBALL TIPS

We are committed to Safer Gambling and have a number of self-help tools to help you manage your gambling. We also work with a number of independent charitable organisations who can offer help and answers any questions you may have.
Gamble Aware LogoGamble Helpline LogoGamstop LogoGordon Moody LogoSafer Gambling Standard LogoGamban Logo18+ LogoTake Time To Think Logo