Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Tomas Soucek to have 1+ headed shots on target at 5/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pts Tomas Soucek to have 2+ headed shots on target at 20/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
It may be a nine-game unbeaten home run for West Ham but David Moyes' side are also four without a win in all competitions.
The Hammers’ last Premier League outing was a draw with basement boys Sheffield United.
A chaotic 12 minutes of injury time saw two red cards and Oli McBurnie dispatch a penalty to snatch a point seconds from the games end.
In the game before, West Ham were dumped out of the FA Cup by Championship side Bristol City so the hosts will be keen to rectify a poor start to 2024 with the visit of Bournemouth on Thursday.
What are the best bets?
TOMAS SOUCEK has more shots with his head then with his favoured right foot.
Since joining West Ham, 91 of the big Czech’s 187 efforts have come via his nut, compared to 76 with his right peg.
This campaign he's even more headstrong - it's 14 with his head and 11 with his feet. Of those 14 headed attempts, six have hit the target.
Backing Soucek to have 1+ HEADED SHOTS ON TARGET is the bet here.
With this bet landing in four of his 19 league starts, this price doesn’t immediately stand out as value but there are a few more factors to consider.
The first is the acquisition of Kalvin Phillips. Whether the England international will go straight into the XI is up for debate but if he is, Soucek should play in a more advanced role.
As a number 10 this season, Soucek has averaged 2.2 shots per game whereas that figure drops to one when he plays more defensively.
The bet doesn’t hinge entirely on Soucek starting in a more advanced role though.
Defending set pieces is proving to be an achilles heel of the Cherries, only Nottingham Forest (11) have conceded more goals from them this term.
⚒️🇨🇿 After a month without a Premier League win, Tomas Soucek might just have won West Ham a hard-fought three points against Forest...#WHUNFO | #COYI pic.twitter.com/9zhDPYwGTK
— The Sportsman (@TheSportsman) November 12, 2023
This weakness of Forest was exploited by the Hammers when the sides met in November. Two of the free goals came directly from corners, Soucek nodded in the winner that afternoon which was one of three headed shots he had on target with.
Soucek is 14/1 to score a header on Thursday but backing him to have 2+ HEADED SHOTS ON TARGET appeals more at 20/1.
BuildABet @ 100/1
- Bournemouth to win
- Both teams to score
- Tomas Soucek 3+ shots on target
Some might call it greed, others may say it's good sense but Soucek has had 3+ headed shots on target in a match already this campaign so I think it is the latter. He doesn’t even need to do that here, just hit the target, thrice, by any means necessary.
Combining that with a Bournemouth win and both teams to score provides some interest at 100/1. The Cherries have only dropped points in three of their last 11 games and those were against Liverpool, Tottenham and Aston Villa.
Team news
After picking up two yellow cards in injury time against the Blades, Vladimir Coufal will miss this game due to suspension. As does Said Benrahma, who was sent off in the Cup game with Bristol City.
Mohammed Kudus has returned from the African Cup of Nations (AFCON) after Ghana’s elimination and could start on Thursday.
Edson Alvarez remains a doubt with a calf injury which could see Manchester City loanee Kalvin Phillips start in central midfield.
As for Bournemouth, James Hill was withdrawn during his side's 5-0 thumping of Swansea, joining Max Aarons and Tyler Adams in the treatment room.
Predicted line-ups
West Ham: Areola; Johnson, Mavropanos, Zouma, Emerson; Phillips, Soucek; Kudus, Ward-Prowse, Cornet; Bowen.
Bournemouth: Neto; Kelly, Zabarnyi, Senesi, Kerkez; Cook, Christie; Tavernier, Scott, Sinisterra; Solanke.
Match facts
- West Ham have won three of their last four Premier League games against Bournemouth (D1), having been winless in six against them before this (D3 L3).
- Bournemouth haven’t lost any of their three Premier League away games against West Ham when they’ve scored (W2 D1), failing to find the net on their last two visits (0-4 in January 2020, 0-2 last season).
- West Ham are unbeaten in five Premier League games (W3 D2), their longest run within a single season since January 2021 (6). However, they have drawn their last two league games, last drawing three in a row in April 2017.
- Bournemouth have lost their last two Premier League games, going down 3-1 at Spurs and 4-0 at home to Liverpool. This follows a run of six wins in seven games (D1) in which they’d conceded just five goals and scored at least twice in every match.
- West Ham have kept a clean sheet in each of their last three Premier League home games, last doing so in four in a row between December and January in 2009-10 under Gianfranco Zola.
- Across all teams’ last 10 Premier League games, only Liverpool (24) have picked up more points than West Ham (21 – W6 D3 L1).
- West Ham have 35 points in the Premier League this season, but based on their expected points from their xG for and against in their games, they should only have 24. Their difference of 11 is the highest between actual points and expected points in the competition so far this term.
- Only Nottingham Forest (7) have scored more goals from fast breaks in the Premier League this season than West Ham (6), with the Hammers’ six being scored by three different players (James Ward-Prowse, Mohammed Kudus and Jarrod Bowen, 2 each).
- Excluding penalties, only Nottingham Forest (11) have conceded more goals from set pieces than Bournemouth (9) in the Premier League this season. West Ham’s James Ward-Prowse has created more chances from set play than any other player this term (28).
- Dominic Solanke has scored 12 Premier League goals this season – only Joshua King in 2016-17 (16) and Callum Wilson in 2018-19 (14) have scored more in a single top-flight campaign for Bournemouth.
Odds correct 1240 GMT (31/01/24)
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