We shouldn't be getting carried away by Manchester City's fast start

• Published before Man City 2-0 Forest

Manchester City are unstoppable and unbeatable. That is the conclusion drawn from City winning their first five league games, from winning pretty much everything last year and five of the last six Premier League titles.

It is perhaps more accurate to say they have bludgeoned us into submission. The way they gradually reeled Arsenal in was the final nail in the coffin; the final time anyone dared doubt the immense power of the Pep Guardiola machine.

Tired of seeing optimism crushed, Man City have been pre-crowned Premier League champions with absolute certainty from all quarters.

Plenty of time to go

But there are 33 matches left to play and Man City are just two points above three super-clubs, all of which are in the top ten of the Deloitte Money League and all of which are pulling in the same direction under an exciting manager.

Yet Guardiola’s side are listed at 2/5 to win the title while Liverpool and Arsenal, joint-second favourites, are priced at 6/1.

That just doesn’t add up.

It is a pessimism that does not match with our experience of Man City last season (when, for long periods, they seemed a little passive before that late push) or indeed to how their summer has gone, but rather speaks to the feeling of grim inevitability that has taken over during the Guardiola era of monopolisation.

It is time to address that.

Yet to face a real test

First of all, it is worth noting that Man City are yet to be adequately tested this season.

Burnley, Fulham, and Sheffield United (who almost stole a point against them) are three of the division’s worst-performing teams so far, while Newcastle simply didn’t show up in their narrow 1-0 defeat and West Ham, 1-0 up at half-time, should have capitalised on their first-half performance to prevent Man City from coming back.

That is not to say Guardiola and Man City do not deserve praise for their 100% record - an excellent start of course – but rather that any pre-season concerns we had about their 2023/24 prospects have not been altered by this relatively tame beginning.

And there were legitimate concerns.

There is an argument to be made that City – who won 89 points last season, only three more than the Premier League title-winner average in the 24 years prior to Guardiola’s arrival – have gone a step backwards since lifting the treble.

Less than adequate replacements?

Possible motivation or hangover issues aside (which are more likely to come into play as the season progresses), City lost some crucial attackers this summer.

Ilkay Gundogan, who scored or assisted at least 12 league goals in each of the past three seasons, is a huge loss and certainly has not been replaced like-for-like by Mateo Kovacic.

The 29-year-old is a good ball carrier but he has never been much of a goalscorer.

Riyad Mahrez is another important figure to have departed. Guardiola has so far tried three different players on the right wing – Phil Foden, Bernardo Silva, and Jeremy Doku – but none have excelled.

None can offer Mahrez’s directness cutting in from the right or his unusual (and often underrated) clinical finishing in the penalty area. His average of 16.5 Premier League goals or assists over the last four seasons surely will not be replicated by someone else this year.

Add to that Kevin De Bruyne’s absence until January, at which point he is unlikely to come back fully fit and firing, and they appear to have lost quite a lot of creativity.

Much rests on Doku, Foden, and Julian Alvarez stepping up, and while they are certainly capable of doing so it would be naive to assume they definitely will over a 38-game season.

What’s more, after the second successive summer of letting attacking players leave, City’s squad is surprisingly thin and vulnerable to a couple of key injuries.

Their bench at West Ham, a game for which Jack Grealish was unavailable, read: Rico Lewis, Sergio Gomez, Matheus Nunes, Oscar Bobb, Nathan Ake, Stefan Ortega, Kalvin Phillips, and Scott Carson.

Should a club with that bench really be 2/5 to win the league?

Competition has gone up a level

In years gone by, City have been considered overwhelming favourites because the competition appeared so much weaker, but that surely is not the case this season.

Arsenal have upgraded substantially over the summer with the arrivals of Declan Rice and Kai Havertz, plus after last season they are considerably wiser and more experienced in their title challenge – which is not muddied this year by Thursday-Sunday football.

Liverpool are on a 16-match unbeaten run in the Premier League, appear to have sorted the midfield problems that held them back last season, and boast a ridiculous array of attacking players to solve any opponent put in front of them.

The way they have come back from behind three times already this season suggests Jurgen Klopp’s team are ready for another of those 95+ point seasons. They are certainly in a very strong position to get into the late 80s.

Tottenham are much less likely to maintain their form, but along with Aston Villa, Brighton, and Newcastle they are one of the many clubs to have notably improved on the previous season.

The Premier League is getting stronger all the time, and while City remain England’s best club they are not automatically going to reach the same points total just by standing still – and certainly not if their transfers have taken them ever-so-slightly backwards.

City are, at present, rightly favourites to win the league and become the first team in English football history to win four top-flight titles in a row.

But they are yet to be truly tested, are not as strong as people think, and face a serious challenge from Arsenal and Liverpool in the months ahead.

Let’s not get carried away by a fast start.

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