Champions League betting tips: Tuesday's preview, predictions & latest odds for Chelsea v Bayern Munich

Recommended bets

1pt Robert Lewandowski 3+ shots on target at 3/1

0.5pt Philippe Coutinho to score anytime at 12/5

0.5pt Diego Demme to be carded at 11/4

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Chelsea v Bayern Munich

• 2000 kick-off on BT Sport 2

Bayern Munich may have changed managers during the season, but they have not been affected on the pitch - if anything, they have got even better under Hansi Flick.

The Bundesliga giants, after trailing RB Leipzig for much of the campaign, are now back on top and have won 10 and drawn one of their last 11, so Frank Lampard's Chelsea face an incredibly tough task to reach the last eight.

Their stats are impressive, with 24 goals in six Champions League games and an average of 25 shots per game.

Of that shots-per-game total, Robert Lewandowski is the lead man with just over six per game, which is staggering - Philippe Coutinho is on 4.2, Serge Gnabry on three and Leon Goretza 2.7, to name but a few of the other threats in this side.

Lewandowski, with 10 goals to his name in the competition, is odds=on to score and that is no surprise given his numbers and Chelsea's defensive record, but his shots total at Stamford Bridge is worth exploring.

He is available at evens to have two or more on target and a more appealing 3/1 to have three or more. Considering his rate of shooting, this looks great value on a man who knows where the goal is. Having a plan to keep him quiet is one thing, but doing it successfully is another. Just ask Tottenham.

Sticking with the visitors, there is another eye-catching price in the anytime goalscorer market on a man we know well. Coutinho is enjoying his loan spell in Germany and a permanent deal could be on the cards.

He has seven goals and eight assists in 28 appearances and is not afraid of trying his luck, as the previously mentioned shots stats suggests.

He is a general price of 12/5 to find the back of the net and, should he start, this could be a good way to go.

Prediction: Chelsea 1-2 Bayern Munich (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Best bet:

• Robert Lewandowski 3+ shots on target at 3/1
• Philippe Coutinho to score anytime at 12/5

Opta stats

• Chelsea and Bayern Munich’s last Champions League encounter was the 2012 final – the London side won 4-3 on penalties (1-1 a.e.t.) at Bayern’s Allianz Arena.
• The four previous matches in all competitions between Chelsea and Bayern Munich have produced 17 goals, an average of 4.25 per game.
• Under the current format, Chelsea have reached the knockout stages of the Champions League 14 times in 17 seasons since 2003/04 – only Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern Munich can boast more k/o appearances over that time. However, the Blues haven’t made it past the round of 16 since 2013/14.
• Bayern Munich have reached the Champions League knockout stages for the 12th consecutive season – only Real Madrid (23) and Barcelona (16) are on a longer run. The Bavarians have made it past the round of 16 in seven of the last eight campaigns, the only exception coming last season when they were eliminated by Liverpool.
• Bayern Munich won maximum points (18/18) and had a goal difference of +19 in the Champions League group stages this season, the best-ever performance by a team in the group phase of the competition. However, none of the previous six teams to have won all their group games have subsequently lifted the trophy that same season.
• Chelsea have been eliminated in each of their last four Champions League home/away ties, failing to win any of their eight knockout games in that period (D4 L4). o Chelsea have won only one of their last six Champions League games at Stamford Bridge (D4 L1), a 2-1 victory against Lille last December.
• Since losing the 2012 Champions League final against Chelsea, Bayern Munich have eliminated English clubs in four of their five subsequent home/away ties in the competition.
• Chelsea and Bayern Munich scored the joint-most goals from set-piece in this season’s Champions League group stages (5), including three each from corner kicks.
• Chelsea manager Frank Lampard scored three goals in four Champions League games against Bayern Munich as a player, his joint-best record in the competition. He also converted one of the penalties in the victorious shoot-out in the 2012 final against the Bavarians.
• Bayern Munich striker Robert Lewandowski has scored 10 goals in this season’s Champions League, only the second time he’s reached double figures in the tournament after 2012/13 with Borussia Dortmund. However, he has failed to find the net in his last 597 minutes in the knockout stages of the tournament, his longest drought.

Napoli v Barcelona

• 2000 GMT kick-off on BT Sport 3

Napoli are gathering pace under Gennaro Gattuso, with six wins from their last seven, but Barcelona are a different sort of beast. Especially with Lionel Messi back amongst the goals - just four at the weekend for him.

The Catalan giants are still finding their feet under Quique Setien, but they are in good form with five wins from six.

You would expect Gattuso's side to keep it tight, but again one thing is to go in with the plan but another is to actually keep this Barcelona side at bay.

Our preference is to avoid the match result and go for a small play in the cards market.

Diego Demme joined Napoli in January from RB Leipzig and the midfielder is already making his mark. He got a goal in the win at Sampdoria earlier this month, but more interestingly he has already notched up four bookings. He is now on seven for the season and, being a defensive midfielder, he has a fairly high foul rate.

Against this Barcelona front line and dangerous midfield that will dominate possession, with Messi dropping deep and centrally at times, Demme could be in for a busy match.

Therefore the 11/4 price on him to be carded here is particularly appealing when the referee is German Felix Brych, who has given out 96 bookings and 10 reds in 26 games this term.

Prediction: Napoli 1-2 Barcelona (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

Best bet: Diego Demme to be carded at 11/4

Opta stats

• This will be the first competitive encounter between Napoli and Barcelona.
• Napoli were eliminated in their two previous European Cup/Champions League two-legged ties with Spanish opposition, both times against Real Madrid: 1-3 on aggregate in 1987/88 (first round) and 2-6 in 2016/17 (round of 16).
• Barcelona’s last away win against Italian opposition in the Champions League knockout stages came in April 2006, when they beat AC Milan 1-0, courtesy of a Ludovic Giuly goal; current Napoli manager Gennaro Gattuso played in that game for AC Milan. Since then, Barcelona have failed to win any of their five such away trips to Italy (D1 L4) and have failed to score in the last four.
• Napoli have reached the Champions League knockout stages for the third time in six appearances (50%). However, they have never progressed further than the round of 16.
• Barcelona have progressed past the Champions League round of 16 in each of the last 12 seasons, the longest run in the history of the tournament. Liverpool were the last side to eliminate them in the round of 16, back in 2006/07 (2-2, away goals).
• Napoli have only failed to score once in 20 Champions League games at their San Paolo stadium, a goalless draw against Dynamo Kiev in November 2016. They are also unbeaten in their last seven home games in the competition (W5 D2).
• Games involving Napoli produced five penalties in this season’s Champions League group stages, the joint-most alongside Atalanta (3 for, 2 against).
• Barcelona have won only one of their last eight away games in the Champions League knockout phase (D2 L5), a 1-0 victory against Manchester Utd in April 2019. In those eight games, they have scored only two goals and conceded 17.
• Dries Mertens has been directly involved in 50% of Napoli’s goals in the Champions League since 2016/17, scoring 15 and assisting a further six (21 out of 42). He’s netted five goals this season, already his joint-best campaign alongside 2016/17.
• New Barcelona boss Quique Setién is set to take charge of his first Champions League match against Napoli – the 15th different manager to do so during the knockout stages of the competition. Indeed, six of the previous 14 have won their opening such match, most recently Craig Shakespeare with Leicester City back in March 2017 (2-0 v Sevilla).
• Barcelona’s Lionel Messi’s total of two goals in five games in this season’s Champions League group phase was his lowest for 10 years (2 goals in 2009/10). His only goal on Italian soil in the Champions League knockout stages was in the 2009 final against Manchester Utd at Rome’s Olimpico stadium – he’s failed to find the net (or deliver an assist) in each of his subsequent five appearances.

Odds correct as of 1300 GMT on 24/02/20

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