Tottenham v Aston Villa tips: Premier League preview and best bets
Tottenham host Aston Villa on Sunday afternoon, with the two sides in contrasting form. Jake Pearson has previewed the match, picking out his best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Aston Villa most corners at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
Tottenham’s 5-1 victory over NS Mura in the Europa Conference League on Thursday evening was the first time in five matches that they had won a game inside 90 minutes, but the night was ultimately a success, particularly as Harry Kane came off the bench to net a second-half hat-trick.
That takes the England skipper’s tally to four in his last three appearances, and Spurs fans will be hoping that the striker’s poor start to the season is over.
An expected win against a team fifth in the Slovenian league will hardly have papered over the cracks of an embarrassing 3-1 defeat to Arsenal in the North London derby last Sunday, and in truth, Tottenham’s problems run deeper, struggling to carve out chances of any real quality, while their defence has been breached on 12 occasions in all competitions so far this season.
Nuno Espirito Santo, August’s Manager of the Month, has endured a terrible September, and he needs his team to start off October with a good performance, and preferably a win.
Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Tottenham 11/10 | Draw 5/2 | Aston Villa 12/5
That will be easier said than done however, with an in-form Aston Villa rolling into town on Sunday afternoon.
Plenty has been made about how Villa would transition away from Jack Grealish, but in credit to Dean Smith, the transformation has been seamless, the Villains no longer reliant on moments of brilliance from the now Manchester City player, but instead focusing on defending as a unit and some clinical finishing at the top end of the pitch.
Villa have just two points fewer this season than they did after six matches of last season, and that must go down as an impressive achievement.
Without harking on too much about it, there is an evident Grealish-shaped hole in their attack, Villa generating chances equating to just 1.2 Expected Goals per game this season, as opposed to the 1.62 they averaged last campaign, but that is understandable after losing a £100m player.
Their 1-0 victory over Manchester United was largely deserved, limiting the Red Devils to just two ‘big chances’ – a chance that has 35% chance or higher of being scored according to Infogol – in that match (one being Bruno Fernandes' penalty), with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s men forced into long-range efforts.
Given we have already covered this match in our Beat The Market column, there is no reason to revisit the 1X2 market, but there does look to be value to be found by delving into the corner markets.
Most firms have Tottenham priced up as slight favourites to win the corner battle, which initially seems correct given they are favourites to win the match, as well as being the home team.
But Spurs’ corner count has been low this season, in fact, only four teams have won fewer corners than Tottenham, with only two sides registering a lower corner count in home games.
Aston Villa aren’t the league's most proficient corner winners, but they rarely concede a plethora – only two sides in the division registering a lower corners against total – while only Norwich, and surprisingly Chelsea, have conceded more corners than Tottenham this season.
Aston Villa have failed to rack up more corners than their opponents on just two occasions this season, and one of those was a draw; including an 11-4 hammering of Chelsea.
Tottenham conversely have won the corner battle on just once occasion, against Watford.
There is a temptation to take Aston Villa -1 on the corner handicap, but given the information, 5/4 about ASTON VILLA TO TAKE THE MOST CORNERS is big enough to side with.
Tottenham v Aston Villa best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Aston Villa most corners at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1330 BST (01/10/21)
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