Liverpool v Manchester City tips: Super Sunday preview and best bets
Super Sunday sees Liverpool welcome Manchester City and Tom Carnduff has three best bets in different markets to back.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Under 10 corners at 6/5 (Betfair)
1pt James Milner to have 4+ tackles at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts James Milner and Kevin De Bruyne to be shown a card at 33/1 (bet365)
In the highlight of the Premier League weekend, Liverpool welcome Manchester City in a game that has provided entertainment in recent seasons. The two leading sides for the title know the importance of a result in this fixture.
Despite this taking place at Anfield, City take favouritism with 7/5 available on the away win. Liverpool are the outsiders - that's despite the fact that City have won just once in their last 20 trips to the red side of Merseyside. That was the 4-1 success last season.
Very little separates these two sides at full strength but City dominate when it comes to squad depth. There is also the absence of Trent Alexander-Arnold for the hosts - a major miss for creativity.
Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Liverpool 9/5 | Draw 5/2 | Manchester City 7/5
Alexander-Arnold should see James Milner continue at right-back and his battle with Jack Grealish will be an interesting one to follow. It's also important for Liverpool's chances that he keeps the winger as quiet as possible.
The good news is that Milner is a high tackles player and that is boosted when playing on the right side of defence. He had four tackles there against Crystal Palace and two in 66 minutes in the convincing win at Porto in midweek.
Even at centre midfield against Norwich, Milner posted three successful tackles and we can be hopeful that he posts another high count here. It's also worth keeping in mind those numbers against Palace were a result of him facing a tricky test in Wilfried Zaha.
At a price of 11/4 with Sky Bet, we're taking MILNER TO HAVE 4+ TACKLES across the 90 minutes. There is appeal in 11/10 for 3+ but the caliber of opposition he is facing should see the count go higher.
A point of interest is that with a high number of tackles comes a high number of fouls. For Milner's four successful tackles against Palace, there were five fouls. There was also a foul against Porto and two against Norwich.
His 4/1 best price on a card looks a good value play, but doubling that up with a City midfielder gives us odds of 33/1. In this game, MILNER AND KEVIN DE BRUYNE TO BE SHOWN A CARD looks a good bet.
De Bruyne was shown a card against PSG in midweek and does tend to pick up bookings in big games. The midfielder was shown yellows in both games against the French giants last season, alongside cautions against Chelsea, Leicester and Manchester United in the Premier League in 2019/20.
He committed two fouls in the Manchester derby last season, with a foul in the home draw with Liverpool. Against Chelsea, De Bruyne had three. A similar tally on Sunday could then bring a card.
Finally, the shortest of the three prices but the one that has won in many of the fixtures between these two teams. The expectation is that the corner count could be high - that just hasn't been the case in recent meetings.
At a best price of 6/5 - odds-against value on something that has delivered in recent years - backing UNDER 10 CORNERS looks a solid short price gamble.
Looking at the recent history of these two sides, the corner count is often quite low. Only three of the last ten meetings between Liverpool and City have seen the corners total hit double figures.
It gets even shorter in the past few campaigns. Just one of the last seven games have seen ten or more corners - that was the huge tally of 17 when Liverpool won 3-1 in 2019.
That has affected the last ten-game average but even then it remains at 8.3 corners per 90 minutes. Two of the last six games have seen the corner count finish at a tiny total of three.
We're sitting on the fence in this one and taking the draw with the cases that can be made on any outcome. Instead, with the prices available, the best value can be found in MILNER and DE BRUYNE being involved alongside a low CORNERS count.
Liverpool v Manchester City best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Under 10 corners at 6/5 (Sky Bet, Betfair)
- 1pt James Milner to have 4+ tackles at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
- 0.5pts James Milner and Kevin De Bruyne to be shown a card at 33/1 (bet365)
Score prediction: Liverpool 1-1 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1030 BST (01/10/21)
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