After tipping up a sixth winner of the season at the weekend, Jake Pearson returns with his Beat The Market column, taking an early look at the upcoming weekend's Premier League action.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Everton or Draw v Manchester United at 19/10 (Mansion Bet)
1pt Tottenham to beat Aston Villa at 6/5 (General)
Manchester United v Everton
Manchester United were taken on in this column last week – and that’s not after timing, you can read it here – and though Aston Villa’s win was masked in ‘controversy’, the Red Devils look to have been priced up a little too short again this weekend.
They take on an Everton team whose season hit a slight speedbump in the shape of defeat, ironically, also to Aston Villa two weeks back, and that was exacerbated by their Carabao Cup exit to QPR, but they quickly bounced back with a routine victory over Norwich at the weekend, cruising past the Canaries by two goals to nil.
Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
TV Channel: BT Sport 1
Manchester United 4/9 | Draw 7/2 | Aston Villa 6/1
United have now lost their last two matches, both at home, and it was their form at Old Trafford last season that cost them a real shot at the title – failing to win on ten occasions – while Everton’s form away from home was exceptional, winning over half of their matches on the road.
Given that, the current price about EVERTON OR DRAW looks big at 19/10.
Also, one theme worth following in terms of beating the early price is taking on the ‘big four’ when at home.
Indeed, ‘big four’ home sides have drifted in all but one game this season (12 played), recording an average negative expected value of -12.29%.
Tottenham v Aston Villa
In case you didn’t hear, Tottenham lost the North London derby on Sunday, Arsenal taking the game by three goals to one.
It was more than the result that was worrying for Spurs though, Nuno Espirito Santo’s men producing a horrible performance, 3-0 down by half time and looking completely bereft of ideas, as well as fitness.
Aston Villa, by contrast, pulled off something of an upset at Old Trafford, beating Manchester United 1-0, with Bruno Fernandes skying a last-minute penalty.
Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
Tottenham 11/10 | Draw 5/2 | Aston Villa 12/5
The results mean Villa are now a point better off than Tottenham and sit in eighth in the league, but the reaction to the weekend’s action has certainly been over the top.
Tottenham, initially priced up at 4/5 to win this match, have drifted out to 6/5 to beat Aston Villa, who have been cut to 5/2 from 7/2.
That means on the back of one result, the bookmakers now think Tottenham are 10% less likely to win this fixture.
Overreaction indeed, and odds-against for TOTTENHAM TO WIN may not last too long, particularly considering they were as short as 1/2 with some firms to win this fixture last season.
Odds correct at 1200 BST (27/09/21)
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