Jake Pearson takes an early look at the weekend's Premier League action, determining which sides are worth backing sooner rather than later in order to beat the market.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Aston Villa or Draw v Manchester United at 21/10 (General)
1pt Brighton to beat Crystal Palace at 13/8 (Bet365)
Manchester United v Aston Villa tips
Both Manchester United and Aston Villa arrive into this fixture in mixed form, United having been beaten by Young Boys in their Champions League opener, before holding on for an eventful 2-1 win over West Ham on Sunday, while Villa lost 3-0 to Chelsea, a game they actually played very well in, before beating high-flying Everton by the same scoreline on Saturday.
In fact, Villa have been quietly impressive this season, winning the expected goals (xG) battle in all but one of their matches, while conceding the third fewest chances based on the same metric.
They look to have been a little underestimated in the market and could be worth siding with.
Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
Manchester United 2/5 | Draw 19/5 | Aston Villa 13/2
Villa have twice been initially overpriced when away from home – only Crystal Palace’s price has shortened more on the road this term – while taking on a traditional ‘big six’ team when playing at home is a strategy that has proved fruitful in recent seasons.
In fact, of the 15 matches that a ‘big six’ side has played at home this season, on only four occasions have the away side not shortened, and on three of those four occasions Chelsea were the away side.
Backing Villa to win would not be a bad bet, but in the interest of raising the probability, as well as considering the correlation between an away side’s price shortening and the draw price shortening, then taking the 21/10 about ASTON VILLA OR DRAW makes plenty of appeal.
Crystal Palace v Brighton tips
It is still difficult to know what to make of Patrick Vieira’s start as Crystal Palace manager, draws against Brentford and West Ham arguably good results, while a 3-0 win at home to then top-of-the-league Tottenham was undoubtedly a landmark day for the French coach, but poor showings against Chelsea and Liverpool have slightly tarnished the beginning to the campaign.
Brighton meanwhile have started the season in terrific form, sitting fourth in the Premier League, just one point behind the three leaders.
Surprisingly, or perhaps not, while the Seagulls were the biggest overperformers in terms of xG last season – finishing the campaign in fifth place in Infogol’s Expected Goals Table – this season Graham Potter’s men have underperformed, holding just the tenth best expected goal difference (xGD) in the division, but crucially, converting their chances.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Monday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Crystal Palace 19/10 | Draw 11/5 | Brighton 6/4
For much of last term, Brighton were perennially overestimated by the bookmakers, too much stock placed in visual performance, but this season they look very backable, and have in fact only seen their price drift on one occasion.
Crystal Palace are an interesting one in terms of the price as they have actually shortened in three of their five matches. Those occasions were against Chelsea, Tottenham and Liverpool however, the type of fixtures in which we do generally tend to see the outsiders’ price cut. The other two games were against Brentford and West Ham, and in both matches the Eagles drifted slightly.
BRIGHTON TO WIN is available at 13/8, a price that may have long gone come Monday evening.
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