The north London derby is the main attraction on Super Sunday, and Jake Pearson has previewed Arsenal's trip to Tottenham, picking out his best bet and score prediction.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Tottenham to receive the most cards at 21/10 (bet365)
After a couple of years in the wilderness – even longer for Arsenal in fact – both north London clubs looks to be a real force to be reckoned with once again.
After a horrendous start to the season the Gunners now sit in fifth position in the Premier League, with only Manchester City and Liverpool collecting more points than Mikel Arteta’s men across their last 12 matches.
Tottenham, meanwhile, are now just one place and two points behind their local rivals, and with two games in hand.
That these two sides are now in the hunt for Champions League is testament to both managers.
Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Tottenham 13/10 | Draw 23/10 | Arsenal 21/10
Arteta has moulded this Arsenal team in his image, nurturing the youngsters but also creating a well-balanced, solid outfit; very much like the Spaniard as a player, solid but with flair to use in the correct moments.
“Moments” is perhaps the key word in this fixture then, with Antonio Conte teams often relying on specific triggers to launch their attacks.
Ripatenze, in fact, the style of football Conte is associated with, and which he has himself admittedly is particularly apparent in the way his teams play, translates into “relaunch” in English, and it is these moments of relaunch that are defining his Tottenham team.
Spurs are far from a possession-based team under the Italian, only recording more of the ball than their opponents in half of their matches under his charge. It is not through controlling the ball that Tottenham create chances, but rather lying in wait for the perfect time to construct their attacks.
This is something that has benefitted Harry Kane immensely.
Though the England forward is still to regain his scoring touch, the fact that Spurs are picking the correct moments, and creating chances for their centre-forward - not the other way around - has already yielded a significant uptick in Kane' statistics.
This game ultimately becomes a meeting of two teams who like to control the game, but control without the ball is the key for both – Arsenal have averaged less than 50% possession this season. The match is likely to become a game of cat and mouse between Arteta and Conte.
One thing that is certainly worth mentioning, though it is difficult to attribute too much weight to in terms of probability, is the striking home record Tottenham have in this fixture.
Not since 2015 have Spurs lost a north London derby at home, and though admittedly not all have been played in this stadium, the crowd is undoubtedly a huge influence in this match.
Following two defeats at the hands of Conte’s former club Chelsea in the semi-final of the Carabao Cup as well, Spurs will be desperate to make amends, while Arsenal will hardly arrive into this match fresh following a dogged display to keep Liverpool at bay in the same competition on Thursday evening, a task made all the more difficult given they played 75 of the 90 minutes with ten men.
A lot of the avenues appear to lead toward a home win in this fixture, but at a top price of 11/8, Spurs are difficult to back with much confidence, particularly given how closely matched these two appear to have been of late.
Back bookings on derby day
Instead of looking at the traditional markets for value in this fixture, looking towards the bookings market in what is certain to be a fiery fixture could prove the most fruitful avenue.
Conte has certainly made Spurs more competitive since his appointment and backing TOTTENHAM TO RECEIVE THE MOST CARDS at a price of 21/10 makes plenty of appeal in this fixture.
Tottenham have averaged more yellows than Arsenal on average this season, but perhaps more interestingly, away from home the Gunners have picked up just nine cautions this term – the lowest in the division.
Also, Tottenham traditionally see more cards than Arsenal in this fixture, with the last six meetings seeing Spurs brandished with 19 yellow cards to Arsenal’s 14.
There is, of course, the small issues of Granit Xhaka, the Swiss midfielder losing his head once again in midweek as he was shown his fifth red card since joining Arsenal after 25 minutes of his side’s Carabao Cup tie with Liverpool.
He is eligible to play in this fixture, which places a precarious air over the selection, but he simply cannot exhibit the same level of ill-discipline twice in the space of four day – should Arteta even choose to select him that is.
Ultimately though, it is the vast difference between the prices that attracts the interest here. It is tough to understand exactly why Tottenham are outsiders in this market, and particularly to the extent that they are.
Tottenham v Arsenal best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Tottenham to receive the most cards at 21/10 (bet365)
Score prediction: Tottenham 1-0 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1430 GMT (14/01/2022)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
