You might be thinking: "A ball has not even been kicked in the Premier League and you're already predicting the next (first) manager to leave?"
Yes, that is exactly what we are doing.
Granted, optimism is probably at an all-time high for many but it could turn sour quickly and, in this ruthless league, it doesn’t take many bad results to lead to a sacking.
If the Sky Bet Championship is anything to go by, the first departure could come after one game. Ryan Lowe left Preston following their loss to Sheffield United on Friday.
Oh and at the same level in Scotland, Raith Rovers sacked manager Ian Murray after an opening day defeat and this is just two months after he guided the club to the play-off final.
No one is safe, and this is probably why Sky Bet have no manager to leave at 500/1 - a 0.2% percent chance of happening.
So, where is the value at?
Next Premier League Manager to Leave (odds via Sky Bet)
- Eddie Howe - 6/1
- Enzo Maresca - 7/1
- Erik ten Hag - 8/1
- Nuno Espirito Santo - 10/1
- Marco Silva, Russell Martin, Steve Cooper - 12/1
- Oliver Glasner, Sean Dyche - 14/1
- Andoni Iralola, Ange Postecoglou, Kieran McKenna - 16/1
- Julen Lopetegui, Thomas Frank - 18/1
- Fabian Hurzeler, Gary O'Neil - 20/1
- Arne Slot - 25/1
- Pep Guardiola - 33/1
- Unai Emery - 40/1
- Mikel Arteta - 66/1
- No Manager to Leave - 500/1
Odds correct at 0945 BST (13/08/24)
No manager to leave?
Obviously, the price of 500/1 immediately caught my eye. You have to ask though, how likely is it we will go the full 38-gameweek season without one managerial dismissal?
In 2022/23, 14 managers were relieved of their duties, four more than any previous season in the league's history.
In 23/24, there were only seven changes in the dugout, three of which came before a ball was kicked. Julen Lopetegui walked away from Wolves by mutual consent on August 8th 2023, six days before the season started.
Excluding the Spaniard, who is now at West Ham, there have been 19 managers sacked within 40 days of the season beginning in the division's history.
Although the first sacking didn’t come until December last season - Paul Heckingbottom at Sheffield United - the brutal nature of this league combined with trigger happy owners make a sacking-less season unimaginable.
500/1 for no manager to leave simple is not long enough.
Who has the toughest start to the 2024/25 season?
- Brentford, West Ham - 89.6
- Ipswich Town, Arsenal - 88.7
- Wolves - 88.5
- Bournemouth, Chelsea - 87.7
- Man City - 86.9
- Tottenham - 86.8
- Leicester - 86.2
- Man Utd, Brighton - 86.0
- Aston Villa - 85.8
- Crystal Palace - 85.7
- Nottingham Forest - 85.1
- Everton - 85.0
- Fulham, Southampton - 84.7
- Newcastle - 83.9
- Liverpool - 83.7
Using the Opta Power Rankings, Opta can quantify how easy (or difficult) each team’s opening schedule is.
Pep-less?
Considering the first sacking was not until December last term, the 33/1 about Pep Guardiola might be worth considering due to the 115 charges looming over Manchester City.
Betfair have the Cityzens at 14/1 to be relegated as a result.
The verdict will be decided in November, according to recent reports, and if things go sour at the Etihad will Pep be sticking around? I doubt it.
England job? Howe about no
Eddie Howe leads the betting at 6/1 to be the first manager to leave, partly because he is 3/1 to become the next England manager.
The Newcastle boss is the third-favourite for the Three Lions hot-seat but claims he is wholeheartedly committed at St James’ Park.
“Absolutely no contact whatsoever from anybody, and I'm fully committed to Newcastle," he when asked about the links during Newcastle's pre-season trip to Japan.
"There's nothing to talk about.
"I don't need to address the players. They know, I hope, by how I act and how I am on a daily basis and how committed I am to the club."
Changes behind the scene are also a factor in Howe’s price as Amanda Staveley and partner Mehrdad Ghodoussi left Newcastle in the summer.
The Old Trafford circus
A tumultuous summer at Old Trafford has somehow culminated with Erik ten Hag remaining in the dugout.
According to reports, he was going to be sacked after the FA Cup final regardless of the result. Manchester United won that piece of silverware and the Dutchman has extended his contract to June 2026.
The sensationalist reporting around the club should mean he is not too far down the betting in this market but it might be worth steering clear for now given their opening schedule.
Ranked at 2.7 on the official fixture difficulty rating (that is below average), they face Fulham, Brighton, Liverpool, Southampton and Crystal Palace in the first five games.
The club has added Rene Hake, the previous manager of Dutch club Go Ahead Eagles, to the backroom staff, as well as Ruud van Nistelrooy as a senior coach and this fresh perspective could see the Red Devils off to a strong start.
Boss ten Hag is sceptical of a strong start though.
Speaking earlier this week he said: "That team is not ready, but the league starts and there are more managers to deal with this problem."
An odd statement from the Manchester United manager and coupled with a poor result on Friday against Fulham, it could see ten Hag move into the sack race favourite. It is odd this comment has not shifted his price at all, he remains available to back at 8/1.
Foxes the relegation favourites
Steve Cooper's price of 12/1 looks large.
He has previous in this division, relieved of his duties at Nottingham Forest in his second top flight term despite ending a 23-year absence for the club at this level.
Cooper inherits a squad in a far worse position than when they were promoted back in May. Since then, Leicester have lost their manager and best player to Chelsea (Enzo Maresca and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall) and find themselves as the favourites to prop up the division.
Leicester face relegation rivals Fulham, Crystal Palace and Everton early on in the season, and if results don’t go the Foxes' way, it is very plausible that Cooper could be relieved of his duties at the end of September.
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