Football betting tips: Euro 2024
1.5pts Under 2.5 goals at 10/11 (bet365)
1pts Romania to qualify at 9/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Florin Nita to be shown a card at 7/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Romania to qualify and Florin Nita card at 35/1 (bet365)
As I write, Monday's fixtures haven't taken place, so by the time you read this Slovenia may have knocked out Portugal, and Belgium may have rolled back the years to beat France; neither would be without warning.
The round of 16 has shown more than the odd glimpse of a potential shock.
But for a last-gasp moment of Jude Bellingham brilliance, 9/1 Slovakia would've stunned the footballing world. Georgia (13/1) gave us a thrill before Spain ultimately outclassed them, and luckless Denmark - 5/1 to beat Germany in normal time - fell the wrong side of a toenail offside call and a controversial VAR penalty to go from 1-0 up to 1-0 down in the space of 90 seconds.
Finally, while anyone who'd watched Italy and Switzerland in the group stage surely expected the latter to win, remarkably the bookies priced the Swiss as 9/4 outsiders.
Which brings us on to underdogs Romania.
What are the best bets?
Of all the ties in the round of 16 it was this this one that jumped out to me as having the most promise when it came to backing a major shock.
Much like England, the Netherlands have shown nothing to suggest they are a team to be trusted.
A good day against France displayed traits of being a well organised team with potential, but either side of that goalless draw were two highly questionable performances, showing us what a work in progress Ronald Koeman's team are.
Their 3-2 defeat by Austria reverted to something much closer to their opening performance against Poland, a narrow victory which required a deflected equaliser following a defensive error and a late winner out of nothing when the match appeared to be meandering towards a draw.
This inconsistency provides plenty of reason to believe there is potential for the Netherlands to lose against a weaker nation.
ROMANIA, meanwhile, have shown plenty of signs of encouragement, enough to be back-able at 9/2 TO QUALIFY. The 8/1 available to win in 90 minutes is tempting, but just doesn't quite make it for me.
- CLICK HERE to back Romania to win in 90 minutes with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Romania to qualify with Sky Bet
They may have lost their second group game 2-0 to Belgium, but having overwhelmed Ukraine to win their opener 3-0, they showed determination to fight back against Slovakia and secure the 1-1 draw required to clinch a place in the knockout stage.
It shouldn't be a huge surprise. Romania went unbeaten in qualifying, topping a group that contained Switzerland, and conceded just five goals in 10 fixtures. Defeat by Belgium was only their second loss in 20 major tournament and qualifying matches.
An excellent defensive record has formed the backbone of their success, making the 10/11 about UNDER 2.5 GOALS a price worth taking.
It feels likely they will look to make this match as difficult as possible for an unsure Dutch team.
Romania have not won a knockout match at a major tournament since 1994. This will be their first knockout tie full stop since Euro 2000.
It's therefore well within the bounds of possibility that in the desperation to reach the quarter-finals, goalkeeper FLORIN NITA IS SHOWN A CARD in an attempt to run down the clock, whether it to be to reach full-time for victory, or to force an extra 30 minutes.
The 36-year-old is no stranger to a booking, receiving at least three in each of the last four seasons, and four in just 20 matches for club and country in 2022/23.
Combining NITA TO BE CARDED AND ROMANIA TO QUALIFY doubles to a whopping 35/1, and makes the staking the plan alongside the straight 7/1 selection.
Team news
Romania left wing-back Nicusor Bancu is banned meaning Vasile Mogos or Deian Sorescu are likely to come in with Andrei Ratiu expected to move to the left.
The Netherlands have a fully fit squad but are expected to make a tactical change after Joey Veerman was replaced just 35 minutes into their defeat by Austria in their final group game.
Xavi Simons and Jeremie Frimpong are expected to come into the XI.
Predicted line-ups
Romania: Nita; Mogos, Dragusin, Burca, Ratiu; R. Marin, S. Marin, Stanciu; Hagi, Dragus, Coman.
Netherlands: Verbruggen; Dumfries, De Vrij, Van Dijk, Ake; Reijnders, Schouten; Frimpong, Simons, Gakpo; Depay
Odds correct at 1300 BST (01/07/24)
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