Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: Matchday 29
- Jake Osgathorpe is +71.3pts in profit for the 2023-24 football season
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Brentford to beat Burnley at 6/5 (Betfair, Unibet)
2pts Aston Villa 2+ goals vs West Ham at 9/10 (BetVictor)
1.5pts Luton 7+ corners vs N Forest at 5/4 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
We finished last weekend -2pts in this column which was pleasing following a poor 3pm showing! It was nearly a brilliant start last weekend as our 14/1 goalscorer pick, James Tarkowski, went very close from a set-piece, taking three shots in total.
In Super 6 terms we racked up 14 points after nailing correct scores in Wolves' win over Fulham and the big game at Anfield where Liverpool and Manchester City shared the spoils.
With the FA Cup reducing the Premier League slate to just four matches, tips may be limited this week, but I'll still be covering the Super 6 selected games - including those cup matches.
Burnley vs Brentford
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 11/5 | Draw 5/2 | Away 23/20
I simply have to back BRENTFORD TO WIN here at 6/5. It looks a whopping price to me.
Burnley have been tragic all season. Full stop. Their fans have had nothing to shout about at Turf Moor, with the Clarets losing 11 of 14 in front of their home faithful, scoring just 13 goals, and unsurprisingly they have racked up the fewest xG of any side at home (16.3).
The Bees have won two of their last nine, losing six, but their schedule has been extremely tough. In that run they've played Manchester City twice, Tottenham, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea. It's no surprise to see them struggling to collect points.
Thomas Frank's side have scored plenty of goals in that time though (14), hitting multiple goals in five of those nine. Ivan Toney and Yoane Wissa up top together are a handful for every side, and should find plenty of joy against this vulnerable Burnley backline.
Bournemouth - who I think are at a similar level to Brentford - went off at even money a couple of weeks ago at Turf Moor when they won 2-0, so 6/5 seems large to me.
Score prediction: Burnley 1-3 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Luton vs N Forest
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 9/5 | Draw 13/5 | Away 11/8
What a massive game this is. Luton win and they go above Forest. The visitors win and they pull six points clear of the drop zone. While picking a winner is hard here, what I am confident about is there being plenty of attacking football.
With Luton in particular purely mental for goals - highlighted by their seven-goal thriller in midweek - it's no surprise to see Over 2.5 goals a general 4/6 shot. But, I love the look of LUTON 7+ CORNERS here.
The Hatters, playing with incredible width and directness, rack up the flag kicks at Kenilworth Road, averaging 6.9 per game when hosting.
Rob Edwards' side have hit 7+ in all of their last five league games despite playing three sides in the current top eight and Chelsea, and with the onus on them to attack here in a relegation six-pointer, they have a great chance of hitting that number again.
Forest have allowed 7.3 corners per away game this season and eight per game in Nuno Espirito Santo's six away matches in charge.
Score prediction: Luton 2-2 N Forest (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Fulham vs Tottenham
- Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 12/5 | Draw 14/5 | Away Evs
Goals should be on the cards at Craven Cottage, with both Fulham and Tottenham attack-minded teams who only know how to play one-way.
That makes it tough to decide on a winner, but Spurs seem to be in a groove, winning eight of their last 12 league games.
They have scored 30 goals in that time, so we could well see Ange Postecoglu's side continue their assault on the top four. Fulham have allowed 1.50 xGA per home game this term, so this free-scoring Spurs side should get plenty of chances here.
Score prediction: Fulham 1-3 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Manchester City vs Newcastle
- Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV channel: BBC One
- Home 2/9 | Draw 11/2 | Away 10/1
Manchester City extended their unbeaten run to 21 matches with a draw at Anfield last weekend, Pep's side winning 18 of those. They should stretch that to 22 and 19 respectively here, as after all, they are unbeaten at the Etihad this season (won 16 of 20).
It's a fortress, and as City challenge for another treble, don't expect rotation. Newcastle are shipping an incredible amount of goals away from home of late. They have shipped 14 in their last six away matches against Premier League teams, so this could be a long evening for Eddie Howe's side.
Score prediction: Manchester City 4-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
West Ham vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- Home 7/4 | Draw 11/4 | Away 13/10
West Ham have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league this season according to expected goals. They have shipped 53.2 xGA - 1.90 per game - which is bettered only by the current bottom three.
That makes the 9/10 available for ASTON VILLA TO SCORE 2+ GOALS a big looking price this weekend.
The Hammers have shipped multiple goals in six of their last eight league games, and this bet has landed in four of their seven matches following a midweek European clash.
Villa had a real off-day against Tottenham, a rare occasion they failed to score. We should see a reaction from Unai Emery's side, who also play midweek, with the Villans netting two or more in five of their eight games to follow Thursday night football.
The top four chasers have scored multiple times in 16 of their 25 league matches against non-title-chasing teams, and can take advantage of a leaky Hammers side in a high-scoring game.
Score prediction: West Ham 1-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Manchester United vs Liverpool
- Kick-off time: 15:30 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: ITV1
- Home 3/1 | Draw 29/10 | Away 4/5
It would be a huge shock to me if Manchester United get the better of Liverpool here. The Red Devils have been shocking of late, even in victory, shipping chance after chance after chance. Neighbours City hammered them, so there should be no reason the Reds don't give them the same treatment.
Jurgen Klopp's men are on a quadruple charge, had the luxury of resting in midweek, and are firing on all cylinders at both ends of the pitch, welcoming key men back to fitness as well.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-3 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 45
- Burnley 1-3 Brentford
- Luton 2-2 N Forest
- Fulham 1-3 Tottenham
- Manchester City 4-1 Newcastle
- Burnley 1-2 Aston Villa
- Manchester United 1-3 Liverpool
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (14/03/24)
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