Football betting tips: Premier League
14:00 - Brighton vs Brentford
1pt Lewis Dunk to win 1+ foul at 7/4 (bet365)
14:00 - C Palace vs Liverpool
2pts Alexis Mac Allister 2+ total shots at 10/11 (bet365, William Hill)
14:00 - Ipswich vs Bournemouth
1pt Issa Diop to be carded at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Adrien Truffert to be carded at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Diop and Truffert both to be carded at 16/1 (William Hill)
14:00 - Sunderland vs Chelsea
2pts Pedro Neto 1+ shot on target at 5/6 (bet365)
0.5pt Pedro Neto 2+ shots on target at 9/2 (bet365)
1pt Trai Hume to commit 2+ fouls at 7/4 (bet365)
16:30 - Man Utd vs Aston Villa
1pt Harry Maguire to be carded at 14/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Youri Tielemans to be carded at 15/4 (William Hill)
*All player prop prices chosen with Super Sub bar Maguire card
Brighton vs Brentford
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
High-flying, third-placed Brighton host sixth-placed Brentford in a rivalry that is commonly known as the 'data and analytics derby' - well, maybe not commonly.
These two sides are both run in a very data-driven way with both punching well above their weight, with the two owners Tony Bloom and Matthew Benham very familiar with each other. The latter was the protegee of the former only to leave and start his own business, a betrayal that Bloom has apparently never forgiven Benham for.
Rumour has it that he refuses to go into the boardroom when the Seagulls visit the Bees, and that he offers a one-off bonus to his players for winning this match-up.
All of that is going on in the background as these two meet, but on the pitch both are thriving making this a hard one to call, especially with Brighton having played a taxing schedule that has seen them play five away games in a row across all competitions, including playing at Anfield and the Etihad (twice).
Instead I'm drawn to the match-up between Bees striker Igor Thiago against Brighton's centre-backs. The Brazilian is a foul-heavy player and has committed 1.79 fouls per 90 this season, leaving a plethora of opposing centre-backs in his wake.
In fact, of the 22 centre-backs to have lined-up against Thiago and Brentford, 13 have been fouled at least once. In this game, Luka Vuskovic is 1/2 TO WIN 1+ FOUL, but his centre-back partner LEWIS DUNK is a much bigger 7/4 for the same bet.
Vuskovic has won 0.90 fouls per 90 this season with Dunk a slightly lower 0.68, but the Brighton captain has won a foul in all of his last three starts, and the disparity in price seems too big for me and certainly looks like value.
Score prediction: Brighton 2-1 Brentford
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Crystal Palace are struggling under Pierre Sage. Winless in six across Premier League and Europa League matches with four defeats in that time, with the Eagles third-bottom of the table and having conceded the most goals in the league (21).
Liverpool were poor last weekend against Arsenal and were beaten in Turkiye in midweek against Fenerbahce, so come into this needing a victory, but their attack continues to underwhelm.
Despite ranking fifth for shots (140), the Reds sit 11th for xGF this term (13.17 - 1.46 per game) and second-bottom for big chances created (7). That latter figure is alarming.
Andoni Iraola will be hoping that a game against one of the league's most porous defences can kickstart his side's attack, but given the amount of shots the Reds are taking and the Eagles are conceding, we'll head to the player shots market.
ALEXIS MAC ALLISTER is the focus, with his shooting stats really catching the eye this season. The Argentine has made 10 starts this season and has take 2+ TOTAL SHOTS in seven of them, so the 10/11 that is available with firms offering super sub represents value.
Palace actually prop up the division for shots conceded this season, facing a league-high 169 attempts (18.8 per game), so Mac Allister should get ample opportunity to pull the trigger.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-2 Liverpool
Ipswich vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Cricket
- Live odds, form and stats
Bournemouth are rolling right now. They have won seven straight games in all competitions, with six of those coming to nil as Marco Rose has the Cherries clicking. The underlying data stacks up too, meaning their odds-on price here is tempting.
Ipswich have won just two of their last nine, losing five, with the Tractor Boys conceding a lot of goals in that time (21).
The angle to attack here is a card for an Ipswich centre-back. That's because there is a real trend developing in games involving Bournemouth, with their opposing centre-backs having their name taken regularly.
At least one centre-back has been booked in all of their last their last five games across the Premier League and Europa League, with eight carded out of a total 12 opposing CBs to have started - some ratio.
ISSA DIOP gets the nod at 3/1 TO BE CARDED on Sunday, with the Moroccan fresh off successive games in which he's been carded, with both up against awkward strikers in Liam Delap and Ollie McBurnie. Evanilson certainly fits the 'awkward' category.
Diop picked up two yellows in limited minutes for Fulham last season and gets the nod over Dara O'Shea who is yet to be carded this season and went a full 46-game 25/26 Championship season without picking up a single card too.
Simon Hooper is the referee here and he's a good appointment for card backers having averaged 4.3 cards per game over the last two Prem seasons, and he warmed up nicely for this one by brandishing four yellows, one red and awarding a penalty last weekend at Coventry.
We'll also back Bournemouth left-back ADRIEN TRUFFERT TO BE CARDED, with the Frenchman carded twice already this season, committing 1.79 fouls per 90 this season and facing a very tricky winger in Abdul Fatawu.
The Ghanaian has drawn 2.08 fouls per 90, with opposing left-backs and left-centre-backs committing 12 fouls in his seven starts, with three of those being carded. Unsurprisingly, two of the cards he has drawn have come in his three home starts, where the Tractor Boys are understandably a bit more adventurous.
We can get 9/2 about Truffert which looks a touch big, especially with the referee appointment here. We'll also back the DIOP AND TRUFFERT CARD DOUBLE at 16/1.
Score prediction: Ipswich 1-2 Bournemouth
Sunderland vs Chelsea
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
Regis Le Bris is absolutely a man under pressure at Sunderland. The Black Cats have made a poor start to the season, barring a run to the Carabao Cup quarter-finals, sitting bottom of the Premier League table and mid-table in the Europa League after a chastening home defeat by Dinamo Zagreb on Thursday.
While there was plenty of temptation to back Chelsea to get the win at the Stadium of Light given the hosts poor form, a home record that has been poor since February in the league (W3 D2 L6), and a jam-packed schedule that means this game will be their ninth in a month, the Blues' inconsistency is enough to suggest the general odds-on prices available are probably about right, especially with 6/5 available not long ago.
Instead we'll focus on TRAI HUME, who is available at 7/4 TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS with super sub. The Northern Irishman has been a bit of a utility man this season but has started the last two Sunderland league games at right back and has hit the 2+ fouls marker. In total he's started just four games at right-back but landed this bet three times this season across Prem and UEL games.
Hopefully he gets the nod at full-back once again here as his opponent is likely to be Morgan Rogers, who was playing on the left-side of a front four last weekend as Chelsea try to reconfigure themselves in the absence of Joao Pedro.
Last week against Manchester United it was a 4-2-3-1 that was adopted, with Rogers on the left in a position familiar to him from his time at Aston Villa, with Pedro Neto the most advanced player operating like a false nine. Hopefully we see the same again here.
That's because Rogers' foul drawing ability is top notch, especially coming off the left. Last week, United's right-back Leny Yoro committed two fouls which could be a precursor of what's to come should Chelsea persist with this switch in formation, so Hume could be in trouble on Sunday if given the start.
Speaking of PEDRO NETO, given the potential for him to again be playing effectively as a striker we have to take him to have 1+ SHOT ON TARGET at 5/6. His record this season even playing as a wing-back has been phenomenal for shots on target.
He's fired 12 shots on target at an average of 1.58 per 90 so far this season, with the bet landing in all of his last six starts. Given the chance of his position being very advanced, we have to back him for 2+ SHOTS ON TARGET too at 9/2, with the higher line landing in four of his eight starts this season and all of his last three.
Both the Neto bets are slightly better priced with BetVictor (10/11 and 5/1), but we will be taking the bets with bet365 as they offer super sub.
Score prediction: Sunderland 1-2 Chelsea
Manchester United vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Was the Roma turnaround the start of a comeback for Michael Carrick as Manchester United? Or was it more of a last hurrah? We'll find out on Sunday when the Red Devils welcome a very good Aston Villa side to Old Trafford.
The Villans have won three of their last five league games and have travelled well ever since a poor opening weekend defeat at Brighton, winning two of an unbeaten three. They are a tempting 23/10 to get the win on Sunday, but given the referee appointment we have to head to the cards market.
Chris Kavanagh has been on a tear with his cards this season, some are calling it a generational run. Across his 10 games in all competitions, Kavanagh has shown a whopping 56 cards (5.6 per game), with five of those contests also seeing a red card shown.
After the theory worked last weekend involving backing cards for centre-backs opposing Aston Villa, there seems no reason to change approach this week. We backed Fulham's David Affengruber in that game, and both he and his defensive partner Calvin Bassey picked up cards.
That means that across the last six games in the Premier League, eight out of 13 starting centre-backs to have faced Villa have been carded. So, enter HARRY MAGUIRE, who is 14/5 TO BE CARDED on Sunday.
The United centre-back has been amongst the cards this season and simply loves a tussle, as we saw on Tuesday when wrestling Roma striker Santiago Castro for the final 20 minutes of the come-from-behind win. Nicolas Jackson will give him the same sort of match-up.
Maguire has been booked four times in the league already this season, as well as collecting one caution in two starts on the continent, while he has been booked in all of United's last three outings. All told his card per 90 average this season stands at 0.45 so he has to be backed.
Now on this bet we are taking Maguire without super sub as the prices for him to be carded with firms including that feature are mostly sub 2/1, but I'm happy on this occasion to take the risk for the bigger price, especially with Maguire completing the full 90 every time he's started this season bar midweek, when subbed after 88 minutes.
The other player of interest is former Villan YOURI TIELEMANS, who can be backed at 15/4 with super sub TO BE CARDED against his former team. Tielemans isn't necessarily known for his fouling or his card-collecting, but the circumstances line up nicely here.
Due the injury to Carlos Baleba and the redeployment of Bruno Fernandes in his proper position of 'number 10', we should see Tielemans play deeper here which puts him right in the firing line.
Across the same sample of six league matches, Villa have drawn six cards from the 12 opposing central midfielders to have started the game. Their fluid attacking midfielders are all excellent foul drawers, while the Villans like to play in transition which makes any foul a potential booking.
The Belgian was booked in his last start at Old Trafford as United were blown away by Bournemouth, while he also picked up two yellows in three Nations League outings for Belgium when deployed in a deeper role. Factor in that he'll not want to be embarrassed by his former teammates, and he looks worth a go.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-3 Aston Villa
All odds correct at 15:30 GMT (06/11/26)
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