Matchday 10 previews - Friday | Saturday | Sunday
Football betting tips: Premier League
12:30 - Leeds vs Tottenham
2pts Under 2.5 goals at 10/11 (bet365)
15:00 - Arsenal vs Hull
1.5pts Arsenal to win and Under 3.5 goals at 21/20 (BOYLESports)
15:00 - Fulham vs Newcastle
1pts Under 2.5 goals at 5/4 (Betfair, Betway)
17:30 - N Forest vs Man City
2pts Nottingham Forest to commit 14+ fouls at evens (Paddy Power, Betfair)
2pts Elliot Anderson and Jeremy Doku both to win 2+ fouls at 21/20 (bet365)
*All player prop prices chosen with Super Sub
Leeds vs Tottenham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 BST
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
Leeds look to have hit the buffers. They started the season well in winning three of their opening six, losing just once, but since they thumped Newcastle Daniel Farke's side are now five without a win, losing two of those, with the goals drying up.
In fact, the Whites' fine-margin nature and the focus on being solid defensively has led to them being an unders team this term. Their games are averaging the fewest goals in the league this season (1.9 goals per game), with seven of their nine going UNDER 2.5 GOALS and this game could well go the same way.
That's because Tottenham have also been a fine-margin side with goals at a premium, their league games averaging 2.2 goals with six of nine going under 2.5. Roberto De Zerbi's side are trending upwards and it's been built around defence.
All of the underlying numbers point in the same direction, with Leeds averaging 1.24 xGF and 1.31 xGA per game, while Spurs are a marginally better 1.30 xGF and 1.12 xGA per game - far from explosive numbers but solid enough defensively.
At 10/11, we'll row back in with a Leeds game going under.
Score prediction: Leeds 0-1 Tottenham
Arsenal vs Hull
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Arsenal were excellent at Anfield last weekend, and Manchester City's successive defeats have seen the Gunners move ahead in the table after winning eight of nine to start the season.
Hull have had a brilliant start themselves, losing only two of nine with five draws seeing them sit 11th in the table. This is undoubtedly their biggest test to date though, and should they avoid defeat at the Emirates it would go down as their best result of the season so far.
I can't see that happening though, and instead want to use the tried and trusted method of backing a Gunners win alongside an under goal total, in this case we'll take ARSENAL WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS at 11/10.
A few weeks ago we had the win and under 2.5 against Everton, but this one feels as though the extra goal could be needed given Hull aren't quite the defensive force of Everton, though they aren't far behind according to the data.
The Tigers have allowed 1.47 xGA per game which is a very solid figure, and so far this season no team has put three goals past them. Arsenal's defence is the standard, averaging a league-low 0.80 xGA per game, but their attacking process ranks only fourth best (1.66 xGF per game).
This bet has won in all five of Arsenal's home games this season across all competitions, while across their last 18 at the Emirates stretching back to February this bet has landed 14 times, with the only victory to breach the 3.5 threshold coming against League One Wigan.
Factor in the packed schedule they have played and the fact they played in Czechia on Wednesday in yet another game that went under 3.5 goals, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see them get ahead and drop into second gear to coast to a controlled victory.
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Hull
Fulham vs Newcastle
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Fulham have steadied the ship, Newcastle are wobbling. How the turns have tabled.
The Cottagers have won two and lost just one of their last six league games, avoiding defeat against Liverpool, Manchester United and Aston Villa as they look to have turned the corner from early season struggles. Newcastle meanwhile have lost four of their last six in the league.
One trend for both has been low-scoring games, so with UNDER 2.5 GOALS available at 5/4, that has to be the play. All of Newcastle's last three have gone under, while six of Fulham's nine have seen three goals or fewer.
Data-wise, the Magpies rank as the third worst attacking team through nine games, averaging just 1.16 xGF per game, while Fulham's attack has been fine-margin in recent weeks as their defence has tightened things up.
Score prediction: Fulham 1-0 Newcastle
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
"I will tell [the players] what we want to do, what we have to do, and if the players buy in, I think we can have a turnaround, and if not, the sixth manager [since the start of last season] will come in."
That was Oliver Glasner after yet another loss last weekend at Brentford, a fifth in nine games. They are still searching for their first win at home and a first home goal of the season, losing three by a 1-0 scoreline and drawing 0-0 against Tottenham.
Nottingham Forest are the league's biggest underperformers so far this season according to the data, sitting third on expected points yet second bottom on actual points. That's probably the reason Manchester City are a tempting 8/11 to win here.
Enzo Maresca's side have lost their last two in the league against Aston Villa and Brighton, but got a win in the Champions League at Leipzig on Wednesday, though again looked vulnerable defensively.
City have conceded multiple goals in six of their last nine, making them an easy swerve all things considered, so from a betting standpoint we are heading to the fouls market where this is a match-up against one of the most foul-heavy teams against one of the best foul-winning teams.
Nottingham Forest have committed the second most fouls in the league this season (127 - 14.1 per game) and City have won the second most fouls this term (133 - 14.8), so that has to be the avenue of attack and we will do so in a few different ways.
Firstly, the even money available for FOREST TO COMMIT 14+ FOULS has to be backed given the two averages of both teams. The selection has landed in six of Forest's 10 games this term across all competitions and six of Manchester City's nine league games.
We'll also back two of City's best foul drawers in a double, with ELLIOT ANDERSON AND JEREMY DOKU BOTH TO WIN 2+ FOULS looking too big at 21/20, especially with super sub involved.
In nine Premier League appearances Anderson has won 2+ fouls on eight occasions, averaging 3.62 per 90, and makes his return to the City Ground this weekend following a summer move, while in eight outings in which he has played more than 20 minutes, Doku has won 2+ fouls seven times, averaging 4.12 fouls per 90 across all competitions.
The pair are in fact the most fouled players per 90 in the top flight this season (of players to have played 300 minutes or more), so this looks like a good match-up for their expertise to shine.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Manchester City
Odds correct at 11:30 GMT (05/11/26)
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