Football betting tips: Premier League
14:00 - Brighton vs C Palace
1pt Pascal Groß 1+ shot on target outside the box at 12/5 (bet365)
14:00 - Leeds vs Man Utd
1pt Ao Tanaka to be carded at 4/1 (William Hill)
0.25pt Tanaka to be carded first at 25/1 (William Hill)
16:30 - Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
1pt Murillo to be carded at 10/3 (bet365)
*All prices chosen with Super Sub
Bournemouth vs Sunderland
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
Both Bournemouth and Sunderland have made poor starts to the Premier League season, sitting 18th and 17th respectively, with the pair saving their winning for the Europa League, where both are two for two.
The Cherries have a small advantage off the back of the midweek European slate as they played at home whereas Sunderland had to travel to Portugal, but neither have impressed domestically this term, even if both are mid-table on underlying numbers.
In what is a tough game to call, we'll be swerving the contest altogether as with another European game next Thursday we could see some rotation, making player prop bets hard to get a read on.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-1 Sunderland (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Brighton vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
The big M23 derby. In recent editions of this rivalry Crystal Palace have had Brighton's number, winning three of an unbeaten four including back-to-back wins at the Amex. Head-to-head advantage - Palace.
This meeting comes three days after Palace played in Lyon, losing 3-2, while Brighton had a cushty home game against a Lithuanian side in the Europa Conference League, heavily rotating in the process. Rest advantage - Brighton.
On current form, Brighton also have the edge having made a blistering start to the new Premier League season, winning four of six, while the Eagles have won two and lost three of their opening six. But, at near 1/2 quotes, the hosts are a tad too short for me.
We do know how the game will flow though, with Brighton the aggressors and on the ball while Palace sit in mid-block looking to press and counter.
That means we could see some shots from range from a Brighton side who have pulled the trigger a lot from distance this term. Only Manchester United and Nottingham Forest have taken from shots from outside the box than Brighton (39 - 6.5 per game), so that's an angle we will attack here.
PASCAL GROẞ is 12/5 to have 1+ SHOT ON TARGET OUTSIDE THE BOX, and that looks too big. The German midfielder is having a fantastic season, scoring three and setting up four in six league outings so far, and he has been trying his luck from range regularly.
Groß has taken 11 shots in total this season with six coming from range including his goal against Arsenal in Brighton's last home league game. He will likely be urged by the crowd to 'shooooooot' whenever he gets the ball in an area around the box as a result which certainly helps this bet, as does the fact that he takes some of his sides' direct free-kicks.
After his belting strike at Coventry, I imagine Lewis Dunk will get the same shouts when he advances with the ball. He's 25/1 with bet365 to have 1+ shot on target outside the box on Sunday but probably won't start, with the red card Pascal Struijk's received last week rescinded.
If you can back Dunk on bet365 then do so as the bet will be void and money returned if he doesn't start.
Score prediction: Brighton 2-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Leeds vs Manchester United
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Manchester United have been poor this season and are rightly under pressure as they head to Elland Road to face a Leeds side who will be licking their lips at the thought of taking on their wounded rivals.
The fixtures are coming thick and fast for the Red Devils, something they weren't at all used to last season, with this game coming in between Champions League assignments which isn't ideal.
I was hoping to be able to back Leeds at around 8/5 to win here but they are a best price of 7/5 which is probably about right for where these two teams are currently, plus, the fact Leeds love a draw is a slight negative to backing them at short-ish quotes.
So instead, with a decent referee for cards in Darren England who has averaged 4.29 cards per game in the Premier League across his career, we'll target a player card, with AO TANAKA TO BE CARDED the bet at 4/1.
The Leeds midfielder has been carded in both of his last two league starts this season, committing 1.64 fouls per 90, and will be up against a Manchester United midfield that is excellent at drawing fouls and cards from opposing midfielders.
In six league games so far this season, United have drawn 29 fouls and five cards from their opponents in the centre of the pitch, and at the prices it's Tanaka who gets the nod given he will be tasked with pressing high and combatting against one of Youri Tielemans or Kobbie Mainoo or both.
We'll also have a smaller bet on TANAKA TO BE CARDED FIRST at 25/1 as I have a feeling he'll be tasked with setting the tempo in this game, the man to push high and try to force a high turnover or two which could see him fly in late on someone or get spun and pull them back. It did coincidentally land last week at Arsenal.
Score prediction: Leeds 2-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
I have a feeling this one could get feisty. It should be a low-scoring, tight affair which will help, while both sides are happy to dish out fouls where required, especially Nottingham Forest. The Tricky Trees have committed the second-most fouls in the league this season, but the most when isolating home games (16.3).
Arsenal are the most fouled side in the Premier League (15.8), so we'll take a few chances on players TO BE CARDED on Sunday, even if the referee isn't an inspiring appointment for card backers.
Michael Oliver is the man with the whistle and while not overly prolific, has been more willing to throw cards of late. He's brandished 3.4 cards per game across all competitions this season, so enough encouragement to back a Forest player to be booked.
MURILLO is the man in question, with the thinking being he will be up against Bukayo Saka. Jimmy has covered the stats in his bet builder column, but Saka has been felled regularly this term drawing three cards from his opposing left-back or left-centre-back in six starts.
That will be Murillo this weekend, and the Brazilian has already been booked three times in seven appearances this season across all competitions.
He's 10/3 TO BE CARDED which looks too big.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 0-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
All odds correct at 16:00 BST (16/10/26)
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