Matchday 7 previews - Saturday | Sunday | Monday
Football betting tips: Premier League
12:30 - Everton vs Chelsea
2pts Jarrad Branthwaite 1+ total shot at 11/10 (Paddy Power)
1.25pts Harrison Armstrong to commit 2+ fouls at 2/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
0.5pt Harrison Armstrong to commit 3+ fouls at 15/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
0.25pt Michael Keane 1+ shot on target from outside the box at 25/1 (bet365)
15:00
1pt Phil Foden to score anytime in Man City vs Ipswich at 2/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
0.25pt Phil Foden to score 2+ goals at 12/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
2pts Nobel Mendy 1+ total shots in Fulham vs Hull at 13/10 (Wiliam Hill)
0.25pt Nobel Mendy 1+ shot on target from outside the box at 20/1 (bet365)
17:30 - Newcastle vs Aston Villa
1pt Johan Manzambi to score or assist at 9/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
0.5pt Johan Manzambi 5+ total shots at 5/1 (Betfred)
*All prices chosen with Super Sub
Everton vs Chelsea
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 BST
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
Chelsea are a swerve for me at 6/5 here. The Blues may have hammered Bournemouth 5-1 last weekend but their attacking process wasn't that impressive, scoring three worldies from distance and taking just 10 shots equating to 1.10 xG.
Their underlying process has been a concern ever since beating Brighton 4-3, with the ensuing four league games seeing them generate just 3.23 xG in total (0.81 per game). Everton have been good this season and remain unbeaten so I wouldn't be rushing to back the away side.
The bets for us centre around Chelsea's foul drawing ability and their inabililty to defend set-pieces. Starting with the former, HARRISON ARMSTRONG's price TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS and 3+ FOULS makes plenty of appeal at 2/1 and 15/2 respectively - with both prices inclusive of Super Sub.
Armstrong, deployed in central midfield, has been foul-heavy so far this season where necessary and when up against good foul-drawing opponents. He's averaged 1.55 fouls per 90, but at home he's made six fouls in three outings, getting booked for his very first foul against a Manchester United midfield who are foul-drawing experts.
Chelsea's two number 10s and midfield duo fall into the same category. Cole Palmer has drawn 1.86 fouls per 90 and Morgan Rogers 1.38, while Moises Caicedo was felled three times on his return to the side last weekend.
Both Bournemouth midfielders made 2+ fouls last weekend and were booked, with Tyler Adams committing five fouls, highlighting how dangerous the Chelsea midfield is. The 2+ line has copped in three of Armstrong's six league starts and two of three at home, while the 3+ has landed once in three at home.
Onto the set-pieces, it's an area Chelsea continue to struggle. The Blues have conceded the most goals from dead-ball situations in the league this season (6) and the second most xG (4.06 - 0.68 per game). Everton are a strong side from dead balls, netting three already this season and have a very big side.
Thierno Barry is a threat, as are James Tarkowski and Michael Keane, but it's JARRAD BRANTHWAITE I want to chance for 1+ TOTAL SHOT. He's taken four shots in six games, and could be a potential overlooked threat on Saturday. He's 12/1 to score anytime for those that way inclined.
A final selection, and a rogue longshot, leans on my Deep Dive piece where I think centre-back shots from distance could be in vogue. At 25/1, MICHAEL KEANE's price for 1+ SHOT ON TARGET OUTSIDE THE BOX is worth a small bet.
He should again be in the line-up at centre-back due to injuries, with Branthwaite at left-back, and Keane doesn't mind an attempt from range. As a former striker at youth team level, he has a decent strike on him, trying his luck four times last season and landing this bet, while in his two Carabao Cup starts he's taken an attempt from 25-yards plus but is yet to hit the net.
Score prediction: Everton 2-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Brentford vs Liverpool
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Brentford are 7/5 favourites for this game, and I have to say, that's pretty tempting. The Bees have been very good so far this season, playing with real consistency, and the same can't be said for Liverpool.
Not only have the Reds underwhelmed so far this season, but they now have selection issues with an already threadbare squad getting even thinner due to injuries and suspensions, and may need to rotate again in the back of a midweek European game and a tight turnaround.
Even with all of that, I can't quite pull the trigger on the Bees. This will be a watching brief.
Score prediction: Brentford 1-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Fulham vs Hull
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
This feels like a massive match for Alvaro Arbeloa. After a tough-ish schedule to start the new season, the post-international break run of fixtures was supposed to be where Fulham got going, facing the three newly-promoted sides on the bounce.
It was going well last week at Ipswich before they conceded in the 88th and 92nd minute to lose that game, piling the pressure on for this clash with Hull. Failure to win this one likely costs Arbeloa his job, making it must-win, which should mean the hosts go all-out-attack.
They have the capability in forward areas, but defensively they have been all over the place this season, conceding a whopping 94 shots (15.7 per game). Hull have made a good start to the season and will fancy their chances of collecting more points at Craven Cottage.
At 13/10 we'll back NOBEL MENDY 1+ TOTAL SHOT, and 1+ SHOT ON TARGET OUTSIDE THE BOX at 20/1. Mendy has averaged 1.31 shots per 90 so far this season, with the 1+ shot bet landing in four of his five appearances. He offers a big set-piece threat, an area of struggle for Fulham, while he also loves pulling the trigger from range.
Mendy has fired three shots from distance in five starts this season, landing the shot on target outside the box in two of those five. It makes sense to give it another go in a game against an opponent that concedes plenty of shots.
Score prediction: Fulham 2-2 Hull (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Manchester City vs Ipswich
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Manchester City were humbled in midweek by PSG, losing 4-2 at home in the Champions League after a 3-0 win at Anfield last weekend. The games are coming thick and fast for Enzo Maresca's side so we should expect some rotation here.
PHIL FODEN is back available again for league action after his three-match ban ended last week, and his price of 2/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME looks big here.
He started the season in impressive fashion before seeing red in the Manchester derby, with the signs being he had returned to his old self after a down year in 25/26.
While yet to score this season, he had been getting in good scoring positions, averaging 0.56 xG per 90 across league and UCL games, and should get chances here against an Ipswich side who have allowed 1.80 xG per game and were hit for five on their last trip to Manchester.
We'll also chance FODEN 2+ GOALS at 12/1 too. He netted three braces last season in a 'down year', while so far this season we have seen players other than Erling Haaland score braces for City in the league, with Rayan Cherki and Antoine Semenyo both obliging.
Sky Bet are top price on the brace and offer super sub which is a great bonus should Foden get taken off, with a forward thinking player likely to enter the fray against tired Ipswich legs.
Score prediction: Manchester City 4-1 Ipswich (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Newcastle vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Alarm bells are ringing for Newcastle after successive away 4-1 defeats, the latest coming at Coventry on Monday. Their underlying data this season has been poor, and early season promising results have papered over cracks, with the Magpies third bottom on expected points.
Aston Villa appear to finding their feet after a slow start, and it is at this time in the season that Unai Emery's men start to motor. Last season they were six without a win in all competitions and then rattled off five straight wins. This season they won one and lost four of their opening six, but have since won three of an unbeaten four.
The win at Tottenham was impressive, the performance at home to Brentford was too even though they didn't win, while the dismantling of Fenerbache in midweek was a display that should send shivers down the spines of Premier League teams. Things might be clicking.
New signings are settling, and JOHAN MANZAMBI has taken to the English game like a duck to water, making an immediate impact. In three starts for Villa he's scored twice and assisted twice, but it's his shoot-on-sight approach which is of interest in this game.
While not something I usually do, I think it could be worth swinging high with his shot lines, with 5+ TOTAL SHOTS appealing at 5/1 with Super Sub - the bet is 7/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes but they don't offer super sub. It may seem like a high bar to cover, but this bet has a lot in it's favour.
The first is the man in question. He fired four shots in 72 minutes at Tottenham on his first start, and last week took seven shots at home to Brentford.
The second is Newcastle's defence, which is shipping attempts left and right. Only Crystal Palace (108) have faced more shots than Newcastle (106) this season, with the Magpies conceding 17.7 shots per game.
Unsurprisingly, when allowing loads of shots some opposing players have hit really high shot lines. Cody Gakpo fired six at St. James' Park, Pedro Porro hit four for Spurs, Marcus Tavernier took five shots at St. James' as did Hull's Mohamed Belloumi.
A big tally is out there for someone, and Manzambi looks the man to target given his early showings. We'll have a smaller stakes play on that, but a full pt on MANZAMBI TO SCORE OR ASSIST at 9/5.
It's a bet that has landed in all three starts for Villa as well as three of his four appearances for Switzerland at the World Cup.
Score prediction: Newcastle 1-3 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 18/1)
All odds correct at 20:30 BST (15/10/26)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Home of This Week's Acca
- Football and other sports tips
- Download the Sporting Life app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
