Newcastle v Manchester City tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Newcastle's tough run of fixtures continues as they welcome league-leaders Manchester City to St James' Park. Jake Pearson has previewed the fixture, picking out a best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Under 3.5 total cards at 3/4 (Unibet)
Newcastle almost threw a huge spanner in the works as they took the lead against Liverpool on Thursday evening, Jonjo Shelvey’s terrific strike – which the Infogol model gave just a 2% chance of being scored – putting the Magpies a goal to the good just two minutes in.
The glory was short-lived however, Liverpool 2-1 up by the time a further 23 minutes had elapsed, and from thereon in there was only going to be one outcome.
Such is the level that Liverpool are operating at presently, it would be wrong to judge too harshly the defensive frailties of Eddie Howe’s men during that particular match, conceding chances equating to 3.50 expected goals.
The trouble is, they now welcome a team who are also creating opportunities as a breath-taking rate.
Kick-off time: 14:15 GMT, Sunday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Newcastle 16/1 | Draw 13/2 | Man City 1/7
Manchester City arrive into this fixture on the back of yet another dominant display, hammering Leeds 7-0 on Tuesday evening.
Incredibly, City actually recorded a lower xGF (expected goals for) total against Leeds than Liverpool did against Newcastle – as well as less than Chelsea did during their 1-1 draw with Everton while we’re at it – which shows just how clinical Pep Guardiola’s men were against the Yorkshire outfit.
City are now a point ahead of Liverpool at the top of the Premier League, and with Jurgen Klopp’s men not playing until directly after the Citizens’ trip to Tyneside, they have a good opportunity to widen that gap and put pressure on their title rivals.
It is difficult to envisage anything other than a routine City win here, with Newcastle’s price of 18/1 for victory an indicator as to how dominant the Manchester outfit are expected to be in this fixture, so looking away from the traditional markets is the best avenue into this tie from a betting perspective.
Only Leeds have received more cautions than Newcastle this term, but betting on the card markets has a lot to do with game state, and with Manchester City certain to dominate proceedings, the amount of yellows the Magpies have received up to this point is almost irrelevant.
City will dictate how this game will be played, and it will be played in the same manner as all City games games, Guardiola’s side boasting a high possession count with the opposition adopting a low-block.
Such is the way City keep the ball, their games are rarely uber-competitive, and that means backing UNDER 3.5 CARDS makes appeal in this fixture.
This bet would have landed in 12 of City’s 17 matches so far this season (70%), including in five of their eight matches on the road, and given the vast majority of firms have this selection priced up at 1/2 (1.50), the 3/4 (1.75) on offer with Unibet looks a good price.
Newcastle v Man City score prediction and best bets
- 2pts Under 3.5 total cards at 3/4 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Newcastle 0-3 Man City (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1020 GMT (17/12/21)
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