Newcastle v Brentford tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Eddie Howe oversees his first game as Newcastle manager as the Magpies host Brentford on Saturday afternoon. Jake Pearson has previewed the fixture, picking out his best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals at 10/11 (bet365)
Newcastle remain the only club in the top four tiers of English football yet to register a win this season.
Eddie Howe’s new side have drawn five and lost six of their 11 matches and are only second bottom of the Premier League by virtue of goal difference.
The Magpies’ leaky defence is at the heart of their problems, but after actually boasting quite an impressive attacking process early on in the campaign, Newcastle’s goalscoring, and chance creation, has severely dropped off in recent weeks.
In fact, after scoring ten goals in their opening eight, Newcastle have netted just two in three since Steve Bruce’s departure, as well as failing to generate over 1.0 expected goals (xG) in any of their matches since their new owners took charge of the club.
Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
Newcastle 8/5 | Draw 12/5 | Brentford 13/8
As far as Brentford are concerned, their season can be split in two, unbeaten through seven in their first season in the Premier League, but now on a run of four successive defeats.
Thomas Frank’s side began the season incredibly well at the back, conceding just twice in their opening five matches, allowing just 0.85 expected goals against (xGA) per game during that period, but the Bees have allowed 1.38 xGA per game in their last four, which included defeats to Burnley and Norwich.
Defeat to Newcastle would make it five losses on the bounce for Frank’s men, as well as condemning them to defeat against each of the current bottom three.
A return to a stingier game plan looks a must for Brentford, who are slowly getting dragged into a relegation battle, something that looked highly unlikely seven games into the season.
Goals could be scarce at St James'
In truth though, Brentford shouldn’t have too much trouble keeping Newcastle at bay, with the Magpies currently boasting the second worst attack in the league according to xG, while Brentford’s defence measured by the same metric puts them sixth in the table.
Keeping the Bees out may be a struggle for Howe’s men, but with Brentford likely to place less emphasis on attack, as well as the fact that the former Bournemouth manager will surely have spent the international break working with his team on solidifying their back line, this could quickly turn into a low-scoring affair.
There is a lot at stake for both sides, Newcastle desperate to claim their first victory of the season, while Brentford certainly need to stop the rot, and nerves will undoubtedly be on show at St James’ Park.
Six of Newcastle’s 11 matches this season have seen three or more goals, but four of those were against teams that finished in the top seven last season, meaning against teams that finished eighth or lower last season, Over 2.5 Goals has landed in just 29% of Magpie matches.
For Brentford, the figure, using the same parameters – i.e. against teams not in last season’s top seven – is 33%.
In effect, when these two play teams in and around them the goals are not as free flowing as when they play the more elite sides, and that makes backing UNDER 2.5 GOALS at a price of 10/11 very appealing.
Newcastle v Brentford best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals at 10/11 (bet365)
Score prediction: Newcastle 0-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1250 BST (17/11/21)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
MOST READ FOOTBALL
FOOTBALL TIPS
