Football betting tips: Non-league and EFL
League One/National League (15:00)
1.5pts Plymouth to beat Burton & Aldershot-Draw vs Tamworth at 6/4 (bet365)
National League (15:00)
2pts Over 2.5 goals & BTTS in Boston Utd vs AFC Fylde at 8/11 (bet365)
1pt Harrogate to beat Eastleigh and over 1.5 goals at evens (bet365)
0.5pt Yeovil to beat Kidderminster at 5/2 (bet365)
1.25pts Yeovil-Draw (Double Chance) at 4/5 (General)
2pts Boreham Wood to beat Solihull and BTTS at 8/5 (bet365)
I am back. Lucky you, I guess.
You'll be seeing a lot of me this international break. In my first Sporting Life article since March I've been asked to cover the EFL and non-league slate this Saturday. I like the look of goals at Cheltenham and I think Gillingham are a tad overpriced at York, but League Two has been the bane of my life, so I'll swerve.
Without further ado...
Plymouth vs Burton
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
It's a reduced slate in the EFL, so Burton's long trip to PLYMOUTH is the only EFL fixture that catches my eye. The Pilgrims ended last campaign like a house on fire but started this one with just one point from two games, losing at home to a rampant Stockport (1-3) and drawing at Wycombe. Things have picked up since, with four wins from five and 10 goals scored in the last three, including victories over Barnsley and Bradford without conceding.
Burton were strong favourites for relegation but have started the season solidly, sitting 12th. In their three away games the Brewers have lost twice, with the shock win at Leicester their only scalp so far. Gary Bowyer’s side could be in for a long afternoon if Plymouth start on the front foot.
Aldershot vs Tamworth
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
The bookies can't split ALDERSHOT and Tamworth. The Shots underwent a huge squad reshuffle in the summer after appointing Slough player-manager Scott Davies, whose young side have started well, losing just twice, both by a solitary goal against Hartlepool and Barrow.
Tamworth, on the other hand, have won just twice, both at home, thanks to last-minute goals against teams reduced to 10 men. The 3-2 victory over Worthing was a dramatic affair, with two added-time goals while the Rebels had just eight men on the pitch, while the Lambs needed a 97th-minute winner against a struggling 10-man Wealdstone. Andy Peaks' side have taken just a point from five away games, a fortunate 3-3 draw at Boreham Wood on opening day and have conceded 16 on the road.
Boston Utd vs AFC Fylde
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
AFC Fylde and goals - name a better combo. The Coasters scored a league-high 112 goals in 46 games in the National League North last season and have continued on fire this year, netting 20 in the opening nine while conceding 13. Of those nine games eight have seen BTTS & OVER 2.5 GOALS click, the exception being the 2-0 win over Forest Green.
Boston's start to the season saw just four goals in three games, but Paul Hurst's side have been more entertaining since. The next six games all saw BTTS, with over 2.5 landing in all but the 1-1 draw with Woking. The Pilgrims have scored in every game this season bar the opening-day defeat by Aldershot and come into this one fresh off a 3-1 win at Forest Green so a goal-heavy game should be in store.
Harrogate vs Eastleigh
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
State the obvious Matthew, but relegation is a bad thing. It's better for some teams than others, though. HARROGATE looked to be stagnating in League Two and the drop should give Simon Weaver's side a chance to reset.
The Sulphurites have slipped to fifth after back-to-back defeats by Boreham Wood and AFC Fylde - two of the strongest teams in the league. Before that, Harrogate won three of four at home, scoring 12 goals in the process and boasting the joint-third-best attack in the league.
Backing against an Eastleigh side who kept their second clean sheet of the season by beating pre-season favourites Carlisle 1-0 may not be my smartest idea but I've seen enough to have my doubts about the Spitfires. They've lost three of their four away games, losing to Kidderminster, Altrincham and Sutton, with their one win coming against 10-man Hartlepool.
Harrogate have an abundance of goals in their side but have kept just one clean sheet all season, so OVER 1.5 GOALS may be needed to see off Eastleigh.
Kidderminster vs Yeovil
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
I had Kidderminster down as an instant relegation candidate after promotion from the National League North and a poor summer window on paper yet Paul Wotton's side are up to third after nine games and just one loss. Which begs the question: why am I backing against them?
Well, aside from the shock 3-1 win at Southend, their schedule has been kind. Hornchurch, Eastleigh, Aldershot, Wealdstone, Gateshead and Woking are sides you'd expect to finish in the bottom half, and Barrow and Hartlepool sit 17th and 19th after poor starts. This isn't a slight on the Harriers, who are good value for their league position and have done the basics required to stay up by beating the sides around them. The 0-0 draw at Woking exposed their thin, stretched squad, especially without top scorer Lewis Walker (6) - another concern if he's missing on Saturday.
YEOVIL sit three points off Saturday's hosts and would leapfrog them with a win. The Glovers have lost just twice this season, to AFC Fylde and Southend, and arrive on the back of a 4-1 demolition of Solihull Moors. They opened the campaign with back-to-back 1-1 draws against Scunthorpe and Carlisle, with two late goals costing them the win in each, while they also threw away a two-goal lead at Southend.
I think the visitors' firepower could be too much for Kidderminster, and feel they're slightly underpriced in the market.
Solihull Moors vs Boreham Wood
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
BOREHAM WOOD are sitting pretty at the top of the league and I can’t see them being knocked off their perch. Luke Garrard’s side are unbeaten, dropping just four points all season. The Wood have had to be potent in attack, with 23 goals, as they’ve kept just one clean sheet – coming in their 3-0 defeat of Forest Green. They’ll be looking to extend their lead at the top against a hapless Solihull Moors team.
Chris Millington’s side are joint bottom on four points, conceding 23 in 9 games. Despite their poor start to the season, they have been ‘in’ most games, based on xG – only failing to score in a tepid home loss to Boston. Moors have played strong teams in Yeovil, Fylde, Southend and Harrogate and were beaten comfortably but scored in all four – a trend I expect to continue on Saturday.
Odds correct at 14:30 BST (24/9/26)
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