Leicester v Manchester City tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Leicester host Manchester City at 3pm on Saturday, looking to beat Pep Guardiola's side yet again. Jake Osgathorpe previews the clash, selecting a best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Manchester City to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 7/5 (William Hill, Betfair)
Leicester have faired well against Manchester City in recent meetings, beating the eventual champions 5-2 at the Etihad early last season and securing victory in the Community Shield.
The only meeting over the past 12 months that has taken place at the King Power though, was a win for City, and given the way both teams have started the season, a repeat of that looks highly likely.
You may think, 'Given how both teams have started? Both are on six points after three games, why would that make a repeat obvious?'. You would be correct in that, but the underlying performances tell a drastically different story that I think helps us identify value in this game.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
Leicester 9/2 | Draw 16/5 | Man City 4/7
Leicester have beaten Wolves and Norwich so far this term, with those wins sandwiching a thumping loss at West Ham.
However, the Foxes were fortunate win both matches, losing the expected goals (xG) battle in all three games this season on the back of a disappointing attacking process.
Through three games, Leicester - a team who have finished a close fifth in the last two Premier League seasons - have averaged just 0.95 xGF per game.
They are clearly struggling for fluidity at the top end of the pitch, and key absences at the other end are also making them easy to play against, with the Foxes allowing 1.95 xGA per game.
We are working with small sample sizes, but given they have faced a Wolves team who finished in the bottom half last season and a newly-promoted Norwich team in their three games, we would have expected better from Brendan Rodgers' side.
They welcome a Manchester City team who have picked up from where they left off last season at both ends of the pitch, and that has occurred without Kevin De Bruyne - who is back in full training after an injury, as is Phil Foden.
Pep Guardiola's side have won the xG battle in all three league games so far, and by a wide margin, so creating chances hasn't been an issue at all.
Averaging 3.05 xGF per game, City are a frightening attacking team to face at this early stage.
Gabriel Jesus has impressed off the right hand side, registering a goal and assist, but given the news that broke on Wednesday that Brazilian players are set to be barred for this weekend's fixtures after failing to report for international duty (at their clubs request), he will likely be missing for this. Oh well. I guess Guardiola will have to bring in Riyad Mahrez or Raheem Sterling.
At the other end of the pitch, City have started as they finished last season, limiting their opponents to next to nothing in terms of chances. They allowed just 0.11 xGA against Norwich and 0.13 against Arsenal after a 1.30 xGA display at Spurs. Ederson, a Brazilian, could also be set to miss this game, and Zach Steffen is reported to have contracted covid-19, meaning Scott Carson could be between the sticks.
While that may be an issue for many teams, with the way City limit chances, it shouldn't make too much of a difference. With John Stones back to full fitness, Joao Cancelo looking comfortable at left-back and Rodri up to speed, City should be well prepared to protect Carson.
City's defensive process is at an incredible level, while Leicester's attacking process hasn't got going yet this season.
If you like backing short prices, I wouldn't put you off backing Manchester City to just win the game, as Leicester do seem to be struggling at both ends of the pitch.
But, I'm going to add in a goals angle to boost the price, making MANCHESTER CITY TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS the selection at a best price of 7/5.
While City have won by a 5-0 scoreline in successive games, one was against Norwich and the other a 10-man Arsenal side. Leicester have more about them than both of those teams, and will be lively enough to keep City on their toes, so I am not expecting a blow-out win.
It will be a controlled victory, and one that will make a statement to the league that they remain the team to beat.
Leicester v Manchester City best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Manchester City to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 7/5 (William Hill, Betfair)
Score prediction: Leicester 0-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1620 BST (08/09/21)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Expert xG analysis and features
- Transfer news and done deals
- Football and other sports tips
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
MOST READ FOOTBALL
FOOTBALL TIPS
