Leicester v Chelsea tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Leicester welcome Chelsea in Saturday's early Premier League kick-off and Tom Carnduff has found value in the stats markets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Antonio Rüdiger to have 1+ total shots from outside the area at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Antonio Rüdiger to have 2+ shots on target from outside the area at 150/1 (Sky Bet)
Chelsea return from the international break hoping to extend their three-point lead at the top of the Premier League table. Thomas Tuchel's side have won eight of their opening 11 games of the season - losing just once - and will be looking to capitalise on some poor showings from Leicester.
The Foxes were expected to be battling for the Champions League places once again but they find themselves in 12th with just four wins on their tally. Infogol's table based on performance has them in 13th - they are performing like a lower mid-table side.
It means Chelsea are the odds-on favourites here and it's hard to disagree. Leicester have won just one of their last seven home games in 90 minutes while the Blues are flying on the road - four of their last five away have ended with a clean sheet win.
The issue with backing a Chelsea win is that the price is too short to make it an interesting bet. Form says they will but you're not even pushing doubling your money by going for the outright result.
Instead, there is one player worth looking at and they feature in the back line for the Blues.
Antonio Rüdiger has played the full match in all-but-one of their Premier League fixtures while also playing the full Champions League campaign so far.
The best bet comes in backing him to try and strike, with 5/2 available on RÜDIGER TO HAVE 1+ SHOTS FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA a great play based on recent showings.
It may seem like an odd bet given he's a centre-back but the statistics back up what the feeling is when we watch him play - Rüdiger loves to have an effort from distance.
Backing this selection would have won in three of his last four Premier League outings and 50% of his total 21/22 league games so far. It would have also landed in three of the four Champions League games - the one that fell short had an effort from the very edge of the area.
In fact, 48% of his shots in all competitions last season came from outside the box, with 45.5% of his Premier League shots being in the same category. This season, 33.3% of his league shots have been from distance.
Considering that Rüdiger has posted two or more shots in six of his last seven Premier League contests, we're also having a small stake on RÜDIGER TO HAVE 2+ SHOTS ON TARGET FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA at a huge 150/1.
There's a reason it's 150/1 but I like the play on this considering his recent showings and the fact we're fancying him to have an effort from distance in this one anyway.
Rüdiger saw one of his two long-distance efforts from Norwich hit the target while he had two efforts on target in the win over Tottenham - albeit they were inside the area. A point of interest is also how Leicester have conceded at least three shots on target from outside the area in three of their last four Premier League contests.
Rather than taking the short Chelsea price to win, the value comes in backing RÜDIGER to continue his run of trying to find the net from range.
Leicester v Chelsea best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Antonio Rüdiger to have 1+ total shots from outside the area at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
- 0.5pt Antonio Rüdiger to have 2+ shots on target from outside the area at 150/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Leicester 0-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (18/11/21)
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