Just four days on from a rip-roaring draw at Old Trafford, managerless Leeds host Manchester United at 2pm on Super Sunday. Joe Townsend previews it, providing four best bets.
Football betting tips: Super Sunday
2pts Manchester United to win at 10/11 (General)
1.5pts Both Teams to Score 'No' at 6/4 (Betfair, BetVictor)
1pt Marcel Sabitzer to score or assist at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Marcel Sabitzer to score anytime at 15/2 (William Hill)
Boring isn't it, teams meeting twice in such quick succession in the league. Not if you're Manchester United, they like it.
Not content with playing Crystal Palace away from home last weekend just 10 days after hosting them, they now travel to Leeds with Wednesday's fightback very much fresh in the memory.
Second-half goals from Marcus Rashford and Jadon Sancho wiped out the managerless visitors' 2-0 advantage to deny them a shock win.
The 2-2 draw did end the Red Devils' 13-match winning home run, but it will likely be only a minor hiccup for Erik ten Hag's side especially given that they warranted three points according to expected goals (xG: MNU 2.04-0.87 LEE).
Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Leeds 29/10 | Draw 11/4 | Man Utd 17/20
United have lost only once since early November (away at leaders Arsenal) winning 13 of 16 matches in all competitions to climb to third in the Premier League table.
It is worth getting them onside for this rematch, even if Leeds have appointed a new manager by kick-off on Sunday afternoon.
For recent trips to similar quality opponents - Nottingham Forest in the Carabao Cup and Crystal Palace in the league - United went off at around the 4/6 mark, which makes the 10/11 available for a MANCHESTER UNITED WIN appealing.
Leeds' only victories in their past 12 matches, a run stretching back to November 9, came against Sky Bet Championship strugglers Cardiff and League One relegation-battlers Accrington in the FA Cup.
An away win looks to have been priced a tad generously.
Alongside what looks to have been an overreaction in the 1X2 market following Leeds' midweek upturn following Jesse Marsch's sacking is the notion that by finding the net twice in one game, the Whites are now a credible goal threat.
Leeds have sacked Jesse Marsch - the right or wrong decision?@JoesterT 🎙️#LUFC pic.twitter.com/rXQ8TN9SeY
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) February 6, 2023
Leeds have failed to create more than 1.0 expected goals (xG) in any of their previous three fixtures, and in five of their seven matches since the restart.
Four of those five games came against teams currently in the top seven: Manchester City, Newcastle, Brentford and Manchester United. Across those fixtures they averaged a paltry 0.60 expected goals for (xGF) per game.
The 6/4 about BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 'NO' is therefore advised.
An added benefit of this angle as opposed to Manchester United clean sheet is, while improbable, the potential for a backs-to-the-wall, narrow Leeds' victory - the only way a home win looks likely to occur.
Our final selections centre on Manchester United new boy Marcel Sabitzer.
The Austrian, signed on loan from Bayern Munich in January, has never had regular gametime at the German champions but during his spell with RB Leipzig was a persistent attacking threat.
He was remarkably consistent, averaging 0.40 expected goal involvements (xGI) per 95 minutes, a number which rose during his five seasons in Leipzig.
- Expected goal involvements (xGI) = xG (expected goals) + xA (expected assists)
Brought in by United to fill the void left by Christian Eriksen's three-month injury lay-off, Sabitzer was excellent on his full debut in the reverse fixture, racking up an impressive 0.62 xGI.
The midfielder had three attempts on goal - forcing Illan Meslier into a good save, seeing one effort go narrowly wide and blazing a glaring opportunity over the bar on the volley when well placed 12 yards out.
But it was not just as a goal threat that he impressed, dictating play from deep and carving out several opportunities for his team-mates.
For that reason, backing SABITZER TO SCORE OR ASSIST at a standout price of 11/4 with Sky Bet is enticing.
And to smaller stakes, the 15/2 about him TO SCORE ANYTIME also makes appeal.
In a contest we expect the visitors to win against an opponent with the fourth-worst defence in the division according to both expected goals against (xGA) and actual goals conceded, Sabitzer should shine.
Leeds v Man Utd best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Manchester United to win at 10/11 (General)
- 1.5pts Both Teams to Score 'No' at 6/4 (Betfair, BetVictor)
- 1pt Marcel Sabitzer to score or assist at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
- 0.5pt Marcel Sabitzer to score anytime at 15/2 (William Hill)
Score prediction: Leeds 0-2 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 0945 GMT (10/02/23)
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