Football betting tips: League Two
3pts Rochdale to finish in the top seven at 4/1 (BetVictor)
2pts e.w. Northampton to win the title at 33/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral 1/4 odds 1-3)
2pts e.w Max Watters (Port Vale) to be League Two top scorer at 66/1 (General 1/4 odds 1-4)
League Two might be my favourite for ante-post betting; at this point anyway.
I'm not sure anyone could strongly disagree with your arguments as it can be a painfully frustrating division to try and predict.
Just 12 points separated the top nine teams last term, and the significantly lower average points required to win the title than in the other two EFL divisions and the National League speaks to just how similar the vast majority of fourth-tier sides are.
Over the past 10 years the average total for a League Two title winner has been 87 points. No higher than 93, no lower than 82.
In that same period 94+ points has been achieved a whopping 31 times across the Championship, League One (both 10) and National League (11).
It makes the bigger priced teams worth a look when it comes to the promotion betting, which is exactly how I'm going about it.
League Two title winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- Salford City - 11/2
- Bristol Rovers - 15/2
- Barnet - 17/2
- Chesterfield - 10/1
- York - 10/1
- Port Vale - 10/1
- Grimsby - 11/1
- Rotherham - 12/1
- 18/1 bar
Cobblers shoe-in for staking plan
Exeter, Port Vale, Rotherham and Northampton are the clubs looking to immediately bounce back to League One, but the market isn't giving the former or latter much chance.
As fourth favourites for both promotion (9/4) and the title (11/1), Vale do look a touch long given their recent record of quickly escaping the bottom division. The smart appointment of Jon Brady midway through last season, one that led to a significant improvement including a shock FA Cup win over Sunderland, certainly helps their chances, too.
But for reasons already mentioned they are not prices I'm keen to get tied up in, though I will return to a pro-Vale angle later on.
NORTHAMPTON TO WIN THE TITLE at 33/1 is where I'm heading. Taking that each-way gives us just over 8/1 for a top-three finish - automatic promotion at this level.
During last season the Cobblers celebrated 10 years under their current, and crucially stable, ownership. The majority of that period has been spent in the third tier.
When they have been in League Two things have tended to go well. In five seasons at the level, Northampton have finished first, 15th, seventh (winning the play-offs), fourth (missing out on promotion on goal-difference) and third.
They have appointed Chris Hogg, long-time assistant to former Bristol City and Norwich boss Liam Manning, to his first managerial role, and paired him with former club captain Chris Doig as number two, an experienced coach in his own right.
Northampton had plenty of time to plan ahead, sacking Kevin Nolan in early March with technical director Colin Calderwood overseeing the remainder of the campaign.
They have done sensible summer business by bringing in some good EFL experience to replace what they have lost, and at the prices are worth backing to continue the relative success of the past decade.
For what it's worth they are generally 5/1 to be promoted if you'd prefer having the safety net of the play-offs thrown in.
No problem for newboys
There continues to be a campaign for an extra promotion place from the National League to League Two and rightly so.
Teams entering the EFL have found the transition increasingly easy in recent years, with Lincoln, Forest Green, Stockport, Wrexham, Notts County and Bromley all being promoted on at least one further occasion having been in non-league over the past decade, while Chesterfield, Barnet and Oldham were immediately competitive at the right end of the fourth tier.
Last term saw a dramatic race finish with York scoring a stoppage-time equaliser at Rochdale to win the title and consequently pip them to promotion. They ended with 108 and 106 points respectively.
Dale recovered to win the play-off final, and both clubs have changed manager since.
The Minsterman only last week made the shock decision to replace Stuart Maynard with Scott Lindsey, while Rochdale have had all summer planning with the highly thought of Ian Watson in charge, whose wonderful job with South Shields in National North earned him a shot at replacing Jimmy McNulty after he was poached by Stockport.
McNulty has long since been linked with a departure, so Dale will not have been in the least bit caught out by his exit. They may have lost a couple of players this summer but it makes little sense for York to be 9/4 for promotion and 10/1 for the title, and ROCHDALE to be 9/1 and 33s
For anyone willing to put down a hefty stake with BetVictor then they can be backed to finish in the top half at 11/8, but no other firm is offering that market so it won't be making this staking plan.
I do like the 4/1 about ROCHDALE TO FINISH IN THE TOP SEVEN though.
Considering they have only been promoted from the fourth tier once since 1969 it is a stretch to back them for successive promotions.
Watters to outrun his odds
Finally, there is no reason not to expect Vale to contend under Brady this season, and he will hope to finally be the man to polish rough diamond striker MAX WATTERS in to spearheading a promotion push.
In flashes throughout his career the 27-year-old has shown he can score goals, but staying fit has so far proved elusive.
A true penalty box striker with blistering pace that few League Two defenders will be able to cope with, dropping back down the levels after several frustrating years with Cardiff and Barnsley (he spent last term on loan with Dundee United) could be just what he needs.
It was back in 20/21 when 16 goals in 19 appearances for Crawley at this level really kickstarted his career, before a loan spell a division higher at MK Dons saw him bag five times in 11 League One games.
At 66/1 he is well worth taking each-way TO BE LEAGUE TWO TOP SCORER in what remains a division defined by its unpredictability as much as anything else.
Odds correct at 10:40 BST (3/8/26)
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