Jimmy's Punt 25/26: P/L +14.7pts | ROI: 89% | Stake: 16.5pts | Returned: 31.2pts
Football betting tips: EFL
Friday 20:00 - Derby vs Bristol City
0.5pt Scott Twine to score from outside the box at 14/1 (bet365)
Saturday 12:30 - Newport vs MK Dons
0.5pt Jack Sanders to score anytime at 14/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Luke Offord to score anytime at 9/1 (bet365)
Saturday 15:00
3pts Over 2.5 goals in Plymouth vs Blackpool at 19/20 (bet365)
3pts Huddersfield to beat Stevenage at evens (William Hill, Coral)
2pts Millwall Asian handicap (+0.5) vs Sheffield United at 17/20 (bet365)
0.5pt Granit Xhaka to be carded in Burnley vs Sunderland at 15/4 (bet365)
The less said about the winning start to the season the better. Don’t acknowledge it, no gloating, just enjoy it while it lasts.
It is unsettling though.
I think we're on the right side of some good prices this weekend with punts lined up for each of England’s top four divisions.
The goalscoring centre backs are here to stay in League Two, there’s a game which looks ripe for cards in the Premier League, we’re with the outsiders in the Championship, the favourites in League One and goals are fancied in Devon.
First up is Derby’s clash with Bristol City on Friday evening, where we're hoping for a goal from distance.
Derby vs Bristol City
- Kick-off: Friday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Live odds, form and stats
It feels a little bit too obvious but the price is a tough one to ignore. SCOTT TWINE is 14/1 TO SCORE FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX against Derby.
He’s a set piece specialist, the most recent example was his brilliant free kick at Bramall Lane in Bristol City’s opening game.
"ABSOLUTELY MAGNIFICENT!" 🪄
— Sky Sports Football (@SkyFootball) August 9, 2025
A glorious free-kick from Scott Twine to give Bristol City an early lead 😍 pic.twitter.com/GpfbZIOrT7
I couldn’t find his career statistics - I am sure Joe’s mentioned it on This Weeks EFL - so I had to trawl through it manually. Across the last four seasons in the Championship, half of Twine’s 16 goals have come from outside the area, as have 101 of his 182 shots.
Opponents Derby have conceded 11 shots from outside the box this season, 34% of their total and the seventh-most in the second tier. Last season, 39% of the shots they shipped came from range which is good news for this bet.
Lewis Baker also netted from outside the box for Stoke against them and Derby conceded nine times from distance last season.
Newport vs MK Dons
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
Three of MK Dons' eight league goals have come from set-pieces this season. It shouldn’t come as a massive surprise considering who they have in the dugout.
At Rotherham, from the beginning of the 2018/19 season to the end of 2020/21, 40% of Paul Warne’s side's 157 goals came via dead balls. Across his only full campaign at Derby, 25 of their 78 goals came from set-pieces.
Both centre backs LUKE OFFORD and JACK SANDERS have netted for the Dons this season and they are both averaging one shot per game.
The former netted three times in League Two last term, two of which came in one game against Saturday opponents, and at the prices available, both are worth covering TO SCORE ANYTIME.
Newport are still the favourites to be relegated but have made a sprightly start to the campaign (W1 D1 L2). They are yet to keep a clean sheet though and have conceded two goals from set pieces.
Not surprising considering they shipped a league high 24.58 xGA from such situations last season.
Burnley vs Sunderland
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
There’s a chance GRANIT XHAKA has turned over a new leaf.
He could have returned to the Premier League older, wiser and more disciplined. The Sunderland captain committed two fouls and completed one tackle in the 3-0 win over West Ham last weekend.
I touted him TO BE SHOWN A CARD in that game and I am not going to give it up just yet, not with the price holding firm.
Xhaka and his Black Cats side all avoided cards last weekend but this is a team which picked up 98 yellow cards and 4 reds last season, the fifth-worst disciplinary record in the division.
The Swiss midfielder has also been booked 57 times and sent off on four occasions in 226 Premier League appearances, so it looks like a good fit between club and player.
This clash with Burnley is a big ’un as well, even at this early stage of the season, because it is the type of game which both sides need to win if they are going to stand any chance of survival.
Last season, the two games between these sides saw a total of 12 cards brandished and a fair share of controversy. When they met at Turf Moor, James Trafford saved both of Wilson Isidor’s late penalties, so there could be a bit of needle on Saturday.
Sheffield United vs Millwall
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
Sheffield United are a side massively undercooked for the season in terms of recruitment. Not least in central defence where there is a distinct lack of a meaty, head it, kick it, no nonsense defender.
To make matters worse, we keep losing out on transfer targets, almost as if players don’t want to play for us anymore.
That said, the Blades are reportedly closing in on deals to sign Ben Godfrey and Japhet Tanganga, although it is unlikely either will feature on Saturday.
I do feel for Ruben Selles, he hasn’t been backed yet, but the display at Swansea was confusing and frustrating, sentiment echoed by the players' body language.
The Blades have lost all three of their opening fixtures, they haven’t kept a clean sheet and have only had one shot on target in their last two games. Next up, they host MILLWALL, sweet baby Jesus.
The Lions won at Carrow Road and lost at home to Middlesbrough 3-0. The scoreline in the latter was harsh, although they didn’t deserve to win. It was the clichéd game of two halves and visiting manager Rob Edwards got his substitutions spot on, Alex Neil did not.
One unfortunate half of football shouldn’t skew your perception of this Lions side though. They have been consistent since Neil came in last December, taking the fifth-most points (37) under him in the Championship last season.
Although the 3/1 about the away win is tempting, backing them +0.5 ASIAN HANDICAP is a little less risky as we are paid out if the visitors pick up a result. It is essentially the same bet as win-or-draw double chance but we get better odds backing it this way.
Huddersfield vs Stevenage
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
I want to take on the only side with a 100% record in League One.
Stevenage have taken maximum points, kept clean sheets in half of their games, scored the joint-second most goals per game in the division (2.0) and conceded the joint-third fewest (0.8).
They’ve also conceded just 3.3 xGA which is the fifth-best in the third tier.
As ever, context is key. Without taking anything away from Alex Revell, his side has beaten newly promoted Port Vale, relegation favourites Northampton and crisis club Rotherham. The Boro also beat Duffman’s dark horses Blackpool 3-2 in their opening game but all three of Stevenage’s goals were gifts.
See for yourself:
HUDDERSFIELD’s price TO WIN makes a lot of sense.
Each of the Terriers' three victories have come to nil and the defeat at Blackpool came against 10-men where Lee Grant’s side had great difficulty breaking down a low block.
Plymouth vs Blackpool
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
Two of the divisions' worst defences square off here. Surely, it means we are in for a goal-laden game?
Blackpool have shipped the most goals in League One (11) and have the highest xGA (7.1) to match. Opponents Plymouth rank a close second with 6.5 xGA and nine actual goals conceded.
Although these tallies suggest both clubs have been unlucky to concede as many as they have, they have shipped over 1.00 xGA in all bar one of their eight games combined.
Three of the Tangerines' games have seen five or more goals scored, as have two of Plymouth’s and neither side has kept a clean sheet.
At a shade of odds on, backing OVER 2.5 GOALS appeals on the West coast.
Odds correct at 1620 BST (21/08/25)
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