- Jimmy's Punt 25/26: Staked 50pts | Returned 60.30pts | P/L +10.30pts | ROI 21%
Football betting tips: EFL
Friday 20:00
1pt Callum Styles to be carded in West Brom vs Leicester at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
Saturday 12:30
1pt Derby to beat Wrexham at 37/10 (Betvictor)
0.5pt Carl Piergianni to score anytime in Leyton Orient vs Stevenage at 12/1 (Betvictor, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Charlie Goode to score anytime in Leyton Orient vs Stevenage at 20/1 (Boylesports)
Saturday 15:00
3pts Over 2.5 goals in Ipswich vs Portsmouth at 4/5 (bet365)
0.5pt Over 4.5 goals in Ipswich vs Portsmouth at 9/2 (bet365)
1pt Norwich to beat Stoke at 27/10 (bet365)
1pt Davis Keillor-Dunn to score anytime in Barnsley vs Port Vale at 15/8 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)
Saturday 17:30
1pt Sunderland double chance and Robin Roefs to be carded at 12/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Sunderland to win and Robin Roefs to be carded at 28/1 (bet365)
After all the waffle about the success of the 3pt plays, Sheffield United got chinned in dramatic fashion last weekend.
My team lost, my bet lost, This Week’s Acca lost and the column ended up down. All because of the Blades. That’ll teach me for punting on my own team.
Such is the never-ending nature of football that there’s no time to dwell on it, we’ve got lots to get through this weekend.
I’ve got 10 bets in total, four of which are over 10/1, which feels more fitting of the Jimmy's Punt brand that I've worked ever so hard on building.
West Brom vs Leicester
- Kick-off: Friday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Stephen Martin has the whistle at the Hawthorns. He has dished out 17 cards in three Championship games this term and averaged just under four a game last season.
I know these aren't outrageous numbers but they are good enough, especially considering the price and match-up on Friday evening.
CALLUM STYLES is 9/2 TO BE CARDED with Sky Bet which looks generous in my eyes.
He got 12 cards last season (0.41 cards per 90) and has averaged 0.21 cards per 90 across his career at this level.
Styles hasn’t missed a minute this campaign and clearly doesn’t mind getting stuck in. This could be his undoing on Friday if, as expected, he is tasked with containing the Foxes' most fouled player.
Abdul Fatawu draws 2.3 fouls per game and his opposite number against Coventry was carded.
Wrexham vs Derby
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
There was some healthy debate on This Week’s EFL about Wrexham’s away performances.
I think they are a good away side, Jake thinks they are a fortunate one, but it derived from the fact they’ve struggled at home.
👍 ‘It’s refreshing to see!’ - @JimmyThePunt
— Sporting Life FC (@SportingLifeFC) September 23, 2025
👎 ‘I don’t think it’s sustainable. They are the worst defensive team in the league!’ - @JAKEOZZ
Discussing Phil Parkinson’s Wrexham and their style of play in the Championship this season…#Wrexham #WxmAFC pic.twitter.com/SrpolmTRV1
Phil Parkinson’s side only lost five times on their own patch across the last two seasons in League One and League Two. This season, in three Championship games at the Racecourse, Wrexham are yet to win.
West Brom and QPR beat them and Sheffield Wednesday drew, the latter had a chance to win it at the death, and the trio scored eight times between them.
I think the hosts are worth opposing on Saturday and am backing DERBY TO WIN. It must be acknowledged though, the Rams have not hit their stride.
Derby currently sit in the bottom three having lost half of their six league games (W1 D2).
The schedule has been tough, they have played five of the top seven and title favourites Ipswich.
John Eustace’s side have taken four points from their last two away games. They almost won at Portman Road but for a 106th minute penalty and beat the Baggies after scoring with their only shot on target.
The latter was fortunate but at the prices available, they are worth a punt against the division's leakiest defence. No side has conceded more expected goals against (xGA) than Wrexham (14.9).
Leyton Orient vs Stevenage
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
Leyton Orient have conceded four goals from set pieces this season and an expected goals (xG) of 5.23, which is the most in League One.
Huddersfield's Joe Low and Stockport’s Joseph Olowu are two centre-backs who have netted against the O’s already this campaign.
Next up is Stevenage, the side with the joint-most goals (5) from dead balls this term and, naturally, the hosts' centre-backs are worth a punt in the ANYTIME GOALSCORER market.
CARL PIERGIANNI is yet to score this season but has 35 league goals across his career, 14 of which have come across the last three seasons for the Stags.
Piergianni is 12/1 on Saturday which is value given his 0.10 goals per 90 average.
I’ll also be covering his centre-back partner CHARLIE GOODE.
Goode isn’t as prolific but he does have a goal this season and is averaging 0.64 shots per 90 for Stevenage.
Ipswich vs Portsmouth
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
On their own patch this term, Ipswich's three league matches have seen two, four and five goals which is on trend with their last season at the level.
At the prices available, both OVER 2.5 GOALS and OVER 4.5 GOALS are worth a go with Portsmouth in town.
Not to be dramatic but the defeat, albeit an unfortunate one, to Sheffield Wednesday last weekend could derail Pomey’s strong start to the campaign.
They headed into the clash having only lost one of their opening five league games (W2 D2) but, with some tough fixtures on the horizon, the points could dry up.
John Mousinho will be without Conor Chaplin for the trip to Portman Road as he cannot face his parent club. More importantly for the bet, first choice stopper Nicolas Schmid is ruled out so Ben Killip should continue in goal.
The visitors have netted in two of their three away league games this term. They may have failed to score in the derby at St Mary’s yet they did rack up an xG of 0.94. So, they’ll fancy their chances of getting among the goals.
Stoke vs Norwich
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
NORWICH’s home form compared to their away is the clichéd chalk and cheese.
At Carrow Road, they have lost all three of their league games but on the road, they are yet to be beaten (W2 D1).
Looking at their schedule, this doesn’t look like a fluke. They went off as favourites in those home games and were a bigger price than each of their opponents away.
A WIN at Stoke will be no mean feat but worth backing at the prices available. I have taken it with bet365 because of their early payout offer.
The Potters' form has taken a dive. They won all four opening games but have only seen victory in one of the four since, failing to score in three, and the issues in attack are worth flagging.
Across their last three league games, Mark Robins’ side have scored once, had seven shots on target but only had one effort with an xG value greater than 0.30.
Barnsley vs Port Vale
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
DAVIS KEILLOR-DUNN has netted five goals in eight League One appearances this season for Barnsley. He netted 18 last term and 22 in League Two for Mansfield the season before.
Keillor-Dunn has proven to be a consistent goalscorer in the EFL and based on his career goals per 90 average of 0.39, quotes of 15/8 for him TO SCORE ANYTIME this weekend are a little bit too big in my eyes.
Port Vale’s stubborn, experienced defensive line is a cause for concern, Darren Moore’s side have kept three clean sheets this season, but I think it can be offset with the Reds' goalscoring exploits.
Conor Hourihane’s rookie managerial role has been underpinned by goals. Both teams have netted in 17 of his 21 games, his side have only failed to score in three and kept just one clean sheet.
Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
Nottingham Forest look a little short here. Ange Postecoglou is yet to win four games into his tenure.
In the Premier League, Arsenal beat them 3-0 and they drew 1-1 at Burnley. Despite going two goals up in the Carabao Cup, Swansea won 3-2 and the spoils were shared at Real Betis in the Europa League.
SUNDERLAND will fancy their chances of extending Ange’s winless run. They have only lost one of their five top-flight games and have been good value for their eight points.
Instead of just getting them onside, I am coupling the visitors TO WIN and WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE alongside Sunderland’s keeper ROBIN ROEFS TO BE CARDED.
Roefs was carded in the draw at Selhurst Park for time wasting and could pick up another should the game state suit.
The referee appointment certainly suits. Tony Harrington has carded two keepers in as many Premier League appearances and both of them were for running down the clock.
Odds correct at 1600 BST (25/09/25)
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