Jimmy's Punt 26/27: Staked 68.6pts | Returned 34.22pts | P/L -34.38pts | ROI -50%
Football betting tips: EFL
Cheltenham vs Newport (Saturday 12:30)
1pt Cheltenham to win and both teams to score at 4/1 (bet365, Sky Bet)
Chesterfield vs Crewe (Saturday 15:00)
2.5pts Crewe win-or-draw double chance at 13/10 (General)
Rotherham vs Shrewsbury (Saturday 15:00)
1pt Shrewsbury to win at 2/1 (Betfair)
Draw Yankee (Saturday 15:00)
1.1pts (Total stake) Draw Yankee in Cambridge vs Plymouth, Oxford vs Blackpool, Stevenage vs MK Dons and York vs Port Vale at 153/1 (Betfair)
This is tough to write.
As I sit here in Sporting Life HQ, news has just filtered through of Andy Woodman’s dismissal at Bromley and I’m still coming to terms with it.
In the five stages of grief (denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance), I am currently somewhere between denial and anger - why has this happened?
By Saturday, the day of the bets touted below, I can only assume I’ll be in a deep depression. And no doubt that’ll only be worsened by the outcome of these punts come 5pm.
We can all take some solace in the fact Woodman and Bromley will head in opposite directions now. And I cannot wait to see what club employs him next so we can start backing their centre backs to score some goals.
Anyway, onto this weekend where I’ve taken inspiration from This Week’s Acca's latest episode to string together a draw Yankee and I've also gone against a couple of favourites in League Two.
Cheltenham vs Newport
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
CHELTENHAM are back to winning ways, beating Fleetwood in emphatic style to end a three game winless run.
That 4-2 victory was their fifth win of the League Two campaign (D3 L4) but what’s interesting is all those wins have seen both teams score and four of those have come at home where the Robins only defeat came against title favourites Salford (W4 D1 L1).
At 4/1, backing the hosts TO WIN AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE is the bet here.
Visitors Newport haven’t won on the road all season (D3 L3) and although they have failed to score in half of those games, they should get chances at Whaddon Road.
The hosts have not kept a clean sheet all season, conceding 22 times (most in league) from an xGA of 22.8 (most in league).
Chesterfield vs Crewe
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
I’ve been pulling a Chesterfield thread for a couple of weeks now, they’re bad as favourites and good as outsiders.
After the midweek draw against Colchester, the Spireites have now gone off as favourites on nine occasions this season and only won twice (D4 L4). Over that sample, they have also gone off odds-on five times and won only once.
It was the same story last season. Paul Cook’s side were odds-on 15 times and dropped points on eight occasions.
On the flip side, they’ve gone off 2/1 or bigger 11 times since the beginning of last campaign and won six times.
So, the rule is back Chesterfield as outsiders and oppose them as favourites and this weekend they are favourites.
Stupidly, and greedy as ever, I thought having half a point on their opponents was the best way to oppose them.
But since I’ve started doing it, they’ve beaten Tranmere and drawn with Crawley and the U’s at odds on prices.
This, coupled with CREWE’s tendency to draw - they’ve shared the spoils in half of their 12 League Two games this season - is why I’ll just be taking the visitors WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE at 13/10.
As much as I like being vindicated with results, I wouldn’t actually mind winning some bets now.
Rotherham vs Shrewsbury
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
I might have been wrong about Rotherham.
I tipped them to finish in the top seven - and to win the title - at the end of September and since then they haven't won a game (D2 L4). Yikes.
What’s more, they have conceded multiple goals in each of their last four, including four at home to Gillingham in League Two and four against Bradford in the cup.
On Tuesday, I thought the Millers had stopped the rot when they went two up at home to Newport - finally they are back on track.
Nope. They drew 2-2.
Stupidly, the reason I fancied them was their start to the season.
They had a brutal schedule but their performances were good, so was the data, and they were picking up results against the best sides in the division.
One thing I might have overlooked was their ability against the poorer sides.
On Saturday, they host SHREWSBURY and the visitors look every bit a top half team.
They rank fourth for xG difference (+3.7) which, compared to their actual goal-difference (-4), suggests they have been unlucky.
The Shrews have won their last two in the league, their last two away games and are unbeaten in three.
It just feels like anybody could rock up to the New York at the minute and get a result. The Millers have only won once at home all season, not kept a clean sheet and conceded 14 across their last five.
Although Shrewsbury’s offensive numbers are slightly worse than Rotherham’s, the Shrews have third best xGA in division (12.6), which makes them very unlucky to have conceded 17 times.
For context, their xGA is only marginally worse than Northampton's (12.3) who have only conceded eight. Rotherham, on other hand, have conceded 20 times (2nd most).
At 2/1, backing the visitors TO WIN is the bet.
Draw Yankee
On This Week’s Acca, my colleagues kept putting forward teams to win as we desperately attempt to stop the rot and end this losing run.
For context, we’re currently 0-18 and you can check out the latest instalment here.
Anyway, a lot of the games suggested just had the whiff of draws to me so naturally I raced back to the office to build this 153/1 DRAW YANKEE with all four games kicking off at 3pm on Saturday.
This is a combination of 11 bets (doubles, trebles and a fourfold) with 0.1pt staked on every combination. That’s 1.1pt in total and it will basically be marginal profit if two games end up all square, tasty profit if three get up and a holiday if they all click.
- Cambridge vs Plymouth (27/10)
- Oxford vs Bradford (12/5)
- Stevenage vs MK Dons (12/5)
- York vs Port Vale (13/5)
CAMBRIDGE’s clash with PLYMOUTH just has an all-square whiff.
The U’s sit a point and a place ahead of Plymouth with 20 points and since Neil Harris came back, they have only lost 17 of 73 league fixtures.
Saturday’s hosts have drawn five of their 11 League One games this term (2nd most) with a goal-difference of +2 and an xG difference of -2.2.
Fine margin is apt with their five wins and one defeat all coming by a one goal margin.
Plymouth are an excellent away team taking 10 points in six games (W3 D1 L2).
After getting battered 3-0 at Stevenage in midweek, they’ll be keen to make amends but these two could cancel each other out.
The next selection comes as OXFORD welcome BRADFORD.
It’s third against eighth and the pair have drawn six games between them.
The Bantams are extremely low margin, especially on the road, and rarely ever give much up in terms of chances.
Away from home, they’ve won half of their six games (D2 L1) but have a GD of +1 as they have kept a clean sheet in half and failed to score more than a goal in any.
The U’s have drawn half of their home games, beating Wigan and Burton, and have a xG difference of -1.7 as they outperform both their xG and xGA.
Sticking in League One, STEVENAGE host MK DONS.
The visitors have drawn the most games of any side in the league (6), twice as many as the hosts but the Stags are notoriously fine margin on their own patch.
This season, there’s been a goal or less between themselves and their opponents in four of their five home games.
Last season, seven of their 23 home games ended all square and of their 14 wins, nine ended 1-0.
Finally, YORK against PORT VALE is a battle between two of the three best defences in League Two.
York have conceded 13 times from an xGA of 12.3 and Vale have shipped 10 goals from an xGA of 10.2 (1st).
Although the hosts are posting some of the best offensive numbers in the division, they have drawn their last three.
That includes the 1-1 with Northampton, a team posting similar defensive numbers to Port Vale.
Odds correct at 15:30 BST (22/10/26)
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