Jimmy's Punt 25/26: Staked 119.25pts | Returned 124.37pts | P/L +5.12pts | ROI 0.9%
Football betting tips: EFL
15:00 - Leyton Orient vs Exeter
0.5pt Jack Fitzwater to score anytime at 18/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)
15:00 - Luton vs Rotherham
1pt Rotherham to win at 5/1 (bet365)
1pt Sam Nombe to score anytime at 10/3 (General)
15:00 - Shrewsbury vs Newport
1pt Newport to win at 10/3 (bet365)
15:00 - Tranmere vs Cheltenham
1pt Cheltenham to win at 17/4 (bet365)
17:30 - Gillingham vs Crawley
1pt Josh Andrews to be carded at 18/5 (bet365)
1pt Kyle Scott to be carded at 13/5 (bet365)
0.5pt Andrews and Scott to be carded at 14/1 (bet365)
International breaks are good. I love them now.
What’s not to like? A reduced English Football League slate - no Premier League or Championship fixtures - just pure, unadulterated lower league action to get stuck into.
Best of all it means player cards are priced for whatever the feature game of the weekend may be, a rare opportunity that cannot be scoffed at.
The League One postponements are my only gripe. I guess it is a reflection of the improving standard in the division but I think, if you are going to be selfish and sign quality international players, then you should be made to suffer the consequences and make do without them when their nations come calling.
Anyway, I have some big priced outsiders, a centre-back goalscorer and a couple of cards angles lined up for Saturday.
Leyton Orient vs Exeter
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
Wycombe’s Dan Casey became the fifth centre-back to profit on Leyton Orient’s set-piece shortcomings last weekend.
This season the O’s have shipped nine goals from dead-balls (second most in League One) and an expected goals of 8.5 (second).
Naturally, Exeter’s centre-backs ANYTIME GOALSCORER prices are worth a look where JACK FITZWATER is the standout price at 18/1.
His goals per 90 average of 0.07 makes this value but he’s also got a goal this season and averages 0.08 shots per game.
Luton vs Rotherham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
Could League One be any tighter? Only 15 points separate leaders Stockport (28) and basement boys Plymouth (13).
Only one of the top eight won last weekend - the other seven lost - and only four of the bottom 16 lost.
Unpredictable maybe, but I can’t help but feel opportunity is rife. I mean, it only takes a run of say six unbeaten games to motor up the table.
Take ROTHERHAM for example. They entered October off the back of three straight defeats, four places and two points off the bottom and 11 points off the play-offs.
Since, they’ve gone six unbeaten (W4 D2) and are now in the top half, four points off the top six.
The return of SAM NOMBE has to have something to do with this uptick in form.
He returned to action with 23 minutes to go against Northampton, the Millers were trailing 1-0 when he was introduced and went on to win 2-1.
Against Leyton Orient, Nombe came on at half-time with the game goalless and grabbed the winner. It was a similar story at Oakwell. The game was all square, he came on at half-time, Rotherham scored and went on to win the game.
Since the win at Barnsley, Nombe’s started the last two in the league, his side have scored five and taken four points.
He doesn’t simply score goals but he gives the Millers an outlet. I saw first hand in the win over Barnsley how he held up the ball, linked the play, won fouls and crucially got Rotherham up the pitch. He was the difference.
With him in the starting line-up, Rotherham have scored 1.75 goals and averaged as many points per game (W2 D1 L1). Without him, they’ve scored 0.9 goals a game and averaged 0.8 points.
Nombe has a goals per 90 average of 0.49 and given his current form, his price of 10/3 TO SCORE ANYTIME is worth a nibble.
Another thing worth considering is international call-ups. Luton have three, one of which is a key absence.
George Saville is away with Northern Ireland and he is crucial in and out of possession for the Hatters.
Saville has started every League One game this season and tops his sides charts for; assists (3), key passes (1.6), crosses (1.4), yellow cards (5) and ranks first for tackles, interceptions and fouls (of players to play over 1,000 mins for Luton).
He will be a big miss.
I also don’t want to get too carried away with Luton’s 3-0 win over Stockport. Jack Wilshere's side were good but there are caveats.
Ollie Norwood was missing for the hosts, Luton’s second was a free-kick, Stockport missed a penalty at 2-0 and finished the game a man light.
All things considered, the Millers TO WIN at 5/1 is also getting thrown in.
Shrewsbury vs Newport
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
Shrewsbury have only lost one of their last four in League Two (W2 D2) and that defeat came in their last outing at Crewe.
That said, the underlying data paints a fortunate picture as Shrewsbury have only won the xG battle once across that sequence, scoring six times from an expected goals of 2.82.
Price wise, they are the shortest they have been all season and I can’t help but feel they’ve been overrated in a massive game at the foot of the table.
The Shrews begin the weekend two points ahead of NEWPORT, who prop up the table, but have a dismal record against bottom half sides. Across seven games against bottom half teams, Shrewsbury have only won once (D3 L3).
Saturday’s visitors are poor - just look at the league table - but they do have a knack of taking points off sides around them, especially away from home.
The Exiles are unbeaten in trips to Accrington, Crawley, Harrogate and Tranmere, winning by an aggregate scoreline of 7-2 in those fixtures.
At 10/3, backing the visitors TO WIN is the bet.
Tranmere vs Cheltenham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
CHELTENHAM are 17/4 TO WIN at Tranmere and with a price like that, I see no reason to jump off the Steve Cotterill train.
Don’t let a bad first half - which ultimately ended in defeat - against Notts County on Monday skew the impact Cotterill has had at the club.
Cotterill came in and took 10 points from the next 15 on offer against Fleetwood, Gillingham, Newport, Walsall and Notts County. That’s no mean feat. Bare in mind he inherited a side with only one league win (D1 L8), fresh off the back of a 7-1 shellacking at Grimsby.
Tranmere start the weekend two points and four places ahead of Cheltenham but I cannot fathom their odds on price.
They are unbeaten against the sides in the bottom half (W3 D3). At home to the sides below they beat Shrewsbury 4-0 - the Shrews were in free-fall at the time - and drew with Newport when identically priced to how they are this weekend.
Gillingham vs Crawley
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Live odds, form and stats
League Two's late kick-off will be under the lights and on the tele which means player cards are priced. A rare treat at this level.
And as luck would have it, this particular battle pits the sides with the worst disciplinary records against one another. Gillingham have 40Y and 3R cards this season, Crawley have 40Y and 2R cards.
Referee Paul Howard isn’t the best appointment, averaging 3.33 cards per game in the fourth tier, but maybe the two bad boys of League Two can coax him into a card frenzy.
JOSH ANDREWS is the standout price TO BE CARDED at 18/5 for the hosts.
Based on his cards per 90 average (0.29), he is a point too big and he has picked up six cards in 14 league appearances this term (0.60 cards per 90).
KYLE SCOTT is also worth a tout for the visitors at 13/5 TO BE CARDED. There is a chance he won’t play but the bet will be voided by bet365.
Scott has six cards in nine appearances for Crawley this season and picked up five in 12 in the MLS in 2025. In total has 42Y and 1R across 102 league career appearances (0.54 cards per 90).
I am also going to take a punt on the CARD DOUBLE at 14/1 but it’ll be worth keeping an eye on team news.
Odds correct at 1440 GMT (13/11/25)
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