Jimmy's Punt

Jimmy's Punt tips: EFL Championship, League One and League Two predictions and best bets

Football
Sat September 05, 2026 · 3w ago

Jimmy's Punt 26/27 Predictions: Staked 20.5pts | Returned 12.93pts | P/L -7.57pts | ROI -37%

Football betting tips: EFL

Saturday 15:00

2pts QPR to beat Middlesbrough at 11/5 (bet365, Betfred)

1pt Derby draw no bet vs West Ham at 13/2 (Paddy Power)

1pt Leyton Orient to beat Luton at 15/4 (Paddy Power)

0.5pt Andre Brooks to score and be carded at 15/1 (bet365)

Anytime Goalscorer Trixie (Saturday 15:00)

1pt (Total stake) Andre Brooks, Jon Russell and Shaquille Gwengwe to score anytime at 134/1 (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

https://media.betfair.com/redirect.aspx?pid=17888340&lpid=159&bid=1615

File last weekend's column under Chris Hammer’s moral winners category.

In the early kick-off between MK Dons and Leicester, the money came for the hosts who were smashed into favourites. But it was the Foxes who did enough to win that game which ultimately ended as a stalemate.

The same thing happened with Millwall at Southampton. The Lions were backed draw no bet and had shortened by the time kick-off came around at St Mary’s. Alex Neil’s side took the lead, but were smashed 5-1.

The goalscorer Trixie secured the only bit of profit over the weekend, a whopping +0.13pts of it. Reyes Cleary did his bit at 7/2, Josh Coburn didn’t and as warned, Jayden Wareham was left out of Exeter’s squad as a move back to League One drew nearer.

In an ideal world, all the bets would win all the time. But in the mean time I'll settle for beating closing lines.

This weekend, I’ve lined up the biggest Anytime Goalscorer Trixie of the season and we’re taking on a couple of short prices.

Sheffield United vs Norwich

ANDRE BROOKS returns to Bramall Lane after making the big money move from Sheffield United to Norwich in the summer.

The winger has slotted seamlessly into Philippe Clement's exciting attack, netting a brace against Burnley and missing a sitter (0.81 xG total) in midweek at Stoke.

In two seasons at the Blades, Brooks netted nine times and with a goals per 90 average of 0.25 making the prices available for him to score anytime a touch big. And that is without considering the narrative at play.

After joining the Norfolk outfit, Brooks praised the club's ‘ambition’. All pretty standard new-signing rhetoric but as a Sheff Utd fan, it rubbed me the wrong way a little bit. It’ll be interesting to see what sort of reception he gets on Saturday.

If it is a bit sour, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Brooks get booked.

He picked up seven last season, already has one to his name this term and has an all time cards per 90 average of 0.24.

So, anything over 7/2 about him to be carded is worth considering. I’ll just be taking a bigger swing at Brooks TO SCORE AND BE CARDED at 15s.

QPR vs Middlesbrough

QPR went off 3/1 when they last hosted Middlesbrough in the Championship at the start of March, a game Boro won 4-0.

And yet, here I am touting the Hoops TO WIN six months later at a smaller price against what is arguably a better Kim Hellberg side.

That victory in Shepherd's Bush marked the end of a hot streak for Boro. They have only won four of their 17 games since (including the play-offs) and those victories came against Sheffield Wednesday at home, Watford at home, Lincoln at home and West Brom at home.

Boro are an undeniably good team, fun to watch and towards the top of the charts for all the important metrics but you cannot ignore the consistency of that poor form.

They drew at Turf Moor on Wednesday, dominating the first half then took their foot off the gas and were ultimately probably relieved to hold onto the point. They’ve also gone to Blackburn, took the lead, then lost despite having 71% of possession. Classic Tony Mowbray.

qpr

This season, Hellberg’s side have the second best xG difference in the division (+4.0), showing their strength at both ends.

Where they seem to fall short is taking chances. They top the charts for ‘big chances’ (16) and ‘big chances missed' (10) and their average of 4.5 shots on target per 90 doesn’t really marry up with the sheer amount of touches in the opposition box they have (123).

In comparison, Saturday’s hosts QPR have had 127 touches in the opposition box (most in league) and averaged 6.5 shots on target per match (most in the league). They have the second best defensive record in the league and are a close third behind Boro for xGD.

They’ve been in scintillating form, going unbeaten this season (W3 D1), the stalemate with Bolton being their only blot on the record.

Their schedule has been kind but you can only beat what’s in front of you - as the cliché goes - and Julien Stephan’s side could spring a surprise on Saturday.

West Ham vs Derby

It took West Ham four attempts but they eventually got their first win of the season in midweek.

The Hammers squandered a two goal lead in the final six minutes at Burnley in their first game. They were beaten on their own patch by Charlton, missing a penalty to equalise, drew at Watford before beating Wolves 4-2 on Tuesday.

The Irons have gone off odds-on in their two home league games, priced at around 2/5 in the defeat against Charlton.

Interestingly, Nuno Espirito Santo’s side are priced a touch shorter against DERBY on Saturday, generally around 1/3, but in comparison to Charlton, the Rams actually rank better in terms of underlying data.

John Eustace’s side have taken four points from the 12 on offer, dropping points to Swansea, the Addicks and Cardiff before beating Portsmouth in midweek.

But at 6/1 generally, I am happy to take a swing at their price DRAW NO BET. I think it’s simply too big.

Luton vs Leyton Orient

How important is Jordan Clark to Luton’s operation?

He made up a third of the Hatters exciting central midfield trio, operating alongside Kasey Palmer ahead of Liam Walsh, but Clark broke his jaw within the first 20 minutes against Notts County and is expected to miss ‘a number of weeks’.

Luton drew 2-2 with the Magpies and then were thumped 5-2 at Mansfield on Sunday. One point and seven goals conceded is a measly return considering Jack Wilshere’s side were favourites to win both games.

Wilshere responded with a tactical change in midweek against Stockport, switching to a flat back five, narrow midfield four and Nahki Wells operating as a loan striker.

It worked as well, winning 2-0 but that scoreline flattered Luton a little.

It was an even game, Luton took their chances, Stockport didn’t with the visitors outshooting them, dominating possession and hitting the woodwork at 0-0.

Luton

Anyway, at 15/4 I am happy to take a punt on LEYTON ORIENT this Saturday.

It’s a matchup which will suit Richie Wellens. His side have done their best work on the road this term, beating Wigan and Bromley by an aggregate scoreline of 7-0.

They were caught cold by Barnsley at home - a side I think are on the up - but were unlucky to lose at home to Sheffield Wednesday, conceding from a costly error and a penalty.

If Luton stick with the new formation, it could be a fine margin clash. If Wilshere goes back to a four at the back, their defensive fragilities could rear their ugly head again.

Only Bromley (13), have conceded more goals in the third tier than the Hatters this term (10).

Anytime Goalscorer Trixie

ANDRE BROOKS makes up the first leg of the ANYTIME GOALSCORER TRIXIE as Norwich head to Sheffield United in the Championship.

His side have racked up over 1.00 xG in all six of their games this campaign. Opponents Sheffield United kept clean sheets in their first three but have conceded six times across their last three games.

So the Canaries should get chances and if they do score you no it was always going to be him coming back to haunt us.

Into League One next where JON RUSSELL’s price to net as Bradford host Mansfield appeals.

Russell was at the double last weekend as the Stags battered Luton 5-2. His first and second goals of the campaign meaning he has netted 19 across the last three League One seasons.

With a goals per 90 average of 0.32, 4/1 would be worth a look.

Obviously the price is inflated by the opposition but Nigel Clough’s side have a good record against last season's top six (W2 D3 L1) and boasted the fifth best away record in the division as well.

Into League Two for the last pick where Northampton face Newport County.

It’s the price of visitors frontman SHAQUILLE GWENGWE which stands out. Signed from Poole Town this summer, he has quickly taken to the jump up in level scoring four goals in as many league appearances.

Hosts Northampton have not kept a clean sheet since their stalemate against Swindon on opening day, shipping three goals from an xGA of 4.00.

Odds correct at 1500 BST (03/09/26)

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