Jimmy's Punt hero

Jimmy's Punt: Premier League & EFL tips, predictions and best bets for January 23-27


  • Jimmy's Punt: Staked 213.40pts | Returned 213.49pts | P/L +0.09pts | ROI 0%
    • *updated Sunday 26/1/25

Football betting tips: EFL

Monday 20:00

1pt Josh Cullen to be carded in Burnley vs Leeds at 3/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt Jayden Bogle to be carded at 3/1 (BetVictor, Betfair, Paddy Power)

0.5pt Cullen and Bogle to be carded at 11/1 (bet365)

0.5pt Red card in match at 5/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

0.5pt Red card for each team at 90/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

https://m.skybet.com/lp/acq-bet-10-get-40-acca-affiliate?sba_promo=ACQ10G40FBACCA&aff=688&dcmp=SL_ED_FOOTBALL

It was a good weekend for the column, but it isn't over yet. So far in this edition we have returned a +10.5pt profit thanks to opposing of Champions League sides Dortmund and PSG, and thanks to Everton and Jordan Pickford.

There is a big Championship game on Monday night, and of course I'm not settling on the profit made - I want more! There looks to be plenty of betting angles filled with sweet, sweet value at Turf Moor, so we'll conclude the weekend column with five tips in the clash of the two title favourites.


Burnley vs Leeds

For this big Championship encounter, I’ll be rinsing and repeating last Friday night's logic in Burnley's goalless draw with Sunderland.

We were expecting cards, preferably red, and lots of them. Despite the game seeing two penalties, it ended 0-0, and although the players tried their best, Anthony Backhouse kept his cards in his pocket until the 84th minute.

He did flash four in the closing stages and our hopes of a red were bolstered after a melee at the death, but it was not to be.

Burnley boss Scott Parker

Nevertheless, there have now been eight top of the table clashes in the Championship and a total of 50 cards brandished, four of which red. In the four games involving Burnley there have been 6.5 cards per game and two red cards, while Leeds’ games have seen 18 yellows and one red card.

Hopefully Monday’s referee, Josh Smith, will be much more obliging.

He has flashed 70 yellows and a red in 16 Championship appearances and the last time Burnley and Leeds squared off, there were 10 cards, so there is hope of this angle bearing fruit yet.

First stop is the player card market where JOSH CULLEN’s price TO BE CARDED appeals.

Cullen has picked up seven this term and although he avoided one in the reverse, no deep lying central midfielder has avoided one against Leeds in similar games against Sunderland and Sheffield United.

JAYDEN BOGLE is Leeds serial card offender with seven already, equalling his best seasonal tally in the division.

Across his five seasons in the Championship, Bogle's card per 90 average of 0.26 makes his price TO BE CARDED value and obviously I will be playing the CARD DOUBLE as well.

Bogle

The RED CARD market is also worth a revisit.

A RED CARD IN THE MATCH looks juicy at 5/1, while we have to take the speculative 90/1 available for BOTH TEAMS TO BE SHOWN A RED CARD too.

Let's hope there are fireworks.


Already advised

Thursday 20:00

1pt James McClean to be carded in Wrexham vs Birmingham at 15/8 (Sky Bet)

0.5pt A red card in match at 5/1 (bet365)

0.5pt A red card each team at 66/1 (bet365, William Hill)

Saturday 14:30

2pts Werder Bremen win-or-draw double chance vs Dortmund at 13/10 (William Hill)

Saturday 15:00

0.5pt Everton win-or-draw double chance and Jordan Pickford card at 12/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill)

0.5pt Gabriel Magalhaes to score 2+ goals in Wolves vs Arsenal at 100/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

Saturday 16:30

2pts NK Istra 1961 win-or-draw double chance vs Dinamo Zagreb at 5/2 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power, Betway)

Saturday 20:05

2pts Stade Reims win-or-draw double chance vs PSG at 16/5 (William Hill)


What a relentless period of football.

Straight out of the hectic festive schedule and into a brutal start to 2025. There's been FA Cup, Carabao Cup, European duties and the usual domestic duties to keep track of.

Not forgetting a bumper round of midweek Premier League fixtures alongside regular EFL action on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Now, thanks to television rights, what used to be strictly weekend football has bled into the week as you can watch games on TV from Thursday through to Monday.

It’s a good job I love it because, my word, it is hard to keep on top of the action.

And although the games continue to come thick and fast there is plenty to get excited about this weekend.


Wrexham vs Birmingham

The eyes of the world will be on the Racecourse on Thursday, where media darlings Wrexham host title favourites Birmingham in the Hollywood Derby.

The sides start the evening five points apart - the Blues are top of League One with two games in hand and are gathering momentum.

Chris Davies' side are unbeaten in 14, winning 12 of those, and have conceded just twice in that run.

Birmingham have only dropped 14 points all season (W17 D5 L2). Combine that with their haul of 24 points from 12 games against top half sides and it’s almost enough to sucker you into the visitors price to win this game, almost.

Birmingham manager Chris Davies
Birmingham manager Chris Davies

The problem is Birmingham have dropped 86% of their points on the road and on Thursday they head to the Dragon's Den to play the best home side in the division.

Wrexham are yet to lose in front of their own supporters in the league, taking a whopping 38 points from the 42 available.

This is not a quirk of this season though, the Racecourse is a fortress on which back-to-back promotions have been built.

Across the last 60 home games from the National League to League One, Wrexham have only lost three times.

So, there could be a case for the hosts here.

Birmingham’s possession heavy football could play right into the hands of Phil Parkinson's side and their contain and counter approach.

Birmingham per 90 stats

The Blues average 67% possession, comfortably the most in the league, and Wrexham have only had the lion's share of the ball in five of their 12 home games.

Instead of tying myself in knots trying to call this clash, I am going to look elsewhere.

The unusual kick-off slot makes it awkward for the teams involved but that’s showbiz baby. More importantly for us punters, it opens some betting markets not usually available in League One.

I’m talking; shots, shots on target, fouls and cards. The latter is where I was drawn, with JAMES MCCLEAN’s price of 15/8 TO BE CARDED simply too big to ignore.

Based on his cards per 90 average from this season (0.38), this price is value without factoring in the magnitude of the game.

McClean plays right on the edge and is just as likely to pick up a booking for a foul as he is for fighting, which was the case in the reverse.

The Irishman is one card away from a two-game suspension and in front of a sell-out crowd, it could become tough for him to avoid a tenth caution of the campaign.

McClean

Leaning into the occasion once more, the red card market provides some interest.

A RED CARD IN THE MATCH is priced at 5/1 and BOTH TEAMS TO GET A RED CARD is 66/1. It is worth noting we are waiting on Betfair and Paddy Power to price this market, so keep an eye out for that.

The sides only have one between them this season, Krystian Bielik picking it up in the reverse as tempers frayed late on.

More importantly, referee Will Finnie has dished out 33 reds in 240 appearances, 16 of which have come in the 151 EFL games he has taken charge of.

Finnie has only given one player his marching orders this season but brandished seven reds last term, two of which in one game.

Let's just hope things boil over.

Odds correct at 0830 GMT (23/01/25)


Brighton vs Everton

Brighton’s form at the Amex leaves a lot to be desired (W3 D6 L1) but their record against the Premier League’s bottom five is particularly bad.

In six games, the Seagulls have only won twice, both of which coming on the road, failing to win any of their three at home.

Worse still, the haul of three points is what their performances deserved. They clearly struggle to break down a low block and with EVERTON in town, another poor result should be expected this weekend.

Since David Moyes' return the Toffees have won one and lost one. They missed their chances against Aston Villa and lost; they took their chances against Tottenham and won.

Everton are defensively sound but if Moyes can fix their attacking woes, they could start to motor up the division.

Jordan Pickford
Everton keeper Jordan Pickford

Regardless, their price TO WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE appeals but with a favourable referee appointment, it would be rude not to couple it with JORDAN PICKFORD TO BE CARDED.

Tim Robinson has booked three keepers this season, five in 30 last term and three in 21 top-flight games.

Pickford has five cards this season, four of which coming in his last seven appearances, and 22 domestically in the Premier League.


Wolves vs Arsenal

What type of punter would I be if I didn’t include GABRIEL MAGALHAES TO SCORE 2+ GOALS in the staking plan?

Jake is along similar lines in his column, he is definitely missing a trick not covering the double though.

Gabriel

Gabriel has history, he netted a brace against Crystal Palace last January and his set piece prowess is well documented.

In the top-flight alone, he has netted 15 goals in four seasons (0.13 per game) which makes the 7/1 about him scoring anytime marginal value, although it does look stingy, and that is without considering the opposition.

Wolves are the worst set piece side in the division, possibly the world, conceding 17 league goals this season.

Betfair and Paddy Power quotes of 100/1 about a Gabriel brace is comfortably the best available - one firm has gone 20/1.

Come to think of it, should I cover the hat-trick?


Take on the European big boys

We are in uncharted waters in a couple of ways.

I have nipped over the channel and onto the continent for some European tips this weekend for the first time this season, territory I usually leave for Tom Carnduff’s column.

The reason is the Champions League group stage concludes next week for the first time since the format's rejig and that has to open up some betting opportunities.

The thinking is the teams with some jeopardy in their European games might slip-up domestically this weekend.

I have undergone the painstaking process of trawling through every single Champions League side with something to play for in midweek and assessed the likelihood of them dropping points domestically this weekend looking out for the following:

  • Points dropped post UCL games this season
  • Average price when they drop points after UCL games
  • Travel time in between their last game and next two
  • League position
  • Next opponents credentials

From a list of 21 teams, I have whittled it down to seven games to earmark, tipping my favourite three as singles and covering them all in a Super Heinz.

Although they didn’t make the cut, honourable mentions go to Bayern Munich, Milan, Aston Villa and Club Brugge, all of which have the potential to drop points.

For those interested the double chance Super Heinz is 4,732/1 with Betfair and the result Super Heinz Hail Mary is silly odds with Betfred (3,301,154/1)


Borussia Dortmund take on WERDER BREMEN on Saturday. They lost at Bologna in midweek and host Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League next Wednesday. Shakhtar have an outside chance of qualification and Dortmund need a point.

Sweet, sweet jeopardy.

It is enough to consider taking the hosts on at 3/5 without any further context but it gets so much better.

Dortmund have been poor all season, losing 11 of their 27 games in all competitions, and their recent run of four straight defeats cost Nuri Sahin his job.

A couple of those defeats are worth examining.

Nuri Sahin
Former Dortmund manager Nuri Sahin

Dortmund lost 4-2 at Holstein Kiel, a game they went off under 1/2 to win. Despite being embroiled in a relegation battle, the hosts raced to a three-goal lead, were then reduced to ten men and still managed to score another.

In midweek, BVB took an early lead against Bologna and then conceded twice in two second-half minutes.

So, although a managerial change is not ideal, serious questions have to be asked of the players.

Their record after Champions League games is also terrible. Dortmund have lost four of their six games immediately after European games at average odds of 23/20, winning none.

WERDER BREMEN have not returned from the winter break in the best form (W0 D1 L2) but are one of the Bundesliga’s best away sides.

They have won 16 of their 26 points on the road - a tally only Bayer Munich and Bayer Leverkusen can trump.

Although the 4/1 about an away win really appeals, taking the added security of WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE looks the safer bet.


I am not going to pretend to be an avid follower of the Croatian top-flight but I know a betting opportunity when I see one and Dinamo Zagreb’s game with NK ISTRA 1961 ticks all the boxes.

Dinamo Zagreb need to beat Milan in the Champions League next Wednesday, the Italians only need a point.

The Croatian side's record post-European games is poor. In six matches, they have only won once despite average odds of 67/100.

Standouts include a 4-1 defeat against NK Slaven Belupo (went off 33/100), a 4-2 loss against Osijek (1/10) and 3-1 loss against NK Lokomotiva (1/2).

NK Istra 1961 are eighth in the table, they lost 5-0 in their last trip to Dinamo Zagreb but drew against them at home.

Saturday’s visitors drew both games against second place, lost their two games against top of the league but are four unbeaten, only losing three of their last 11.

Like I said, my knowledge on the division is minimal, the angle is all about Dinamo Zagreb’s record after big European nights and at 5/2, taking the visitors WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE is worth a poke.


Before their massive clash with Stuttgart in the Champions League next Wednesday, PSG have to navigate STADE REIMS in Ligue 1.

Les Parisiens are nine points clear domestically and coasting, which could work to our advantage here.

Although they are yet to lose, they have dropped eight points this term, six of which coming in the game following a European outing.

Luis Enrique’s side put in a monumental effort against Manchester City in midweek, coming from two goals down to win 4-2 in what was a must-win game.

Just how much the match has taken out of the PSG players remains to be seen but with another three points required against Stuttgart next week, this weekend's domestic duties won’t be a priority.

In the Champions League, both PSG and Stuttgart head into the final game on ten points. Three more would guarantee the winner a spot in the knockouts and while a draw might suit both, nothing can be taken for granted.

So, Reims could have a free hit here.

Reims

They drew the reverse (PSG were 2/5 to win) and have picked up points in four of their six games against the top-six this season including a draw at Marseille.

Post UCL, PSG have dropped points in half of their six games at average odds of 2/5. It is enough to convince me to get the visitors onside via the WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE market.


Odds correct at 1500 GMT (24/01/25)

More from Sporting Life

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.

Like what you've read?

MOST READ FOOTBALL

Join for Free
Image of stables faded in a gold gradientGet exclusive Willie Mullins insight, plus access to premium articles, expert tips and Timeform data, plus more...
Log in
Discover Sporting Life Plus benefits

FOOTBALL TIPS