Tom Carnduff's Weekend Tips

Tom Carnduff's tips: Best bets in Premier League, EFL, Bundesliga, Serie A for January 24-26


Tom Carnduff's weekend tipping column concludes with a best bet for Sunday's Serie A clash between Lecce and Inter Milan.

Football betting tips: Sunday selections

1pt Stefan de Vrij to score anytime in Lecce vs Inter (17:00) at 14/1 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

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"Thousands and thousands of hours of football, each more climactic than the last! Constant, dizzying, 24-hour, year-long, endless football!"

The iconic scene from That Mitchell & Webb Look is often used on social media but, my god, has it never felt more relevant than in the 24/25 campaign.

"Every kick of it massively mattering to someone, presumably."

Me! I'm the someone! Perhaps I'm a victim of my own bizarre enjoyment of the game at all levels but even I'm thinking 'can we maybe just have a couple of days off at some point?'

Ah, who am I kidding. This weekend delivers yet more fascinating match-ups and some value to be had by travelling across the various leagues in Europe. And, as ever, we go from Friday all the way through to Sunday.

I mean, after all: "There is still everything to play for, and FOREVER to play it in!"


Lecce vs Inter

Serie A title hopefuls Inter return to action in a late slot on Sunday as they travel to relegation-threatened Lecce.

A total of 27 points separates the two sides going into the contest and their results against those towards the top should give Inter encouragement for a comfortable victory.

Lecce have been beaten 6-0 by Fiorentina and 4-0 by Atalanta in home games. On the road, Inter beat Hellas Verona - one spot below Lecce - 5-0.

From the many areas where this game presents a mismatch, set-pieces should be prominent. Inter are very good at attacking them; Lecce struggle to defend.

It's why the 14/1 on STEFAN DE VRIJ TO SCORE ANYTIME is a particularly appealing price here.

De Vrij found the net in that hammering of Verona and he brings a significant aerial threat in attacking situations.

Stefan de Vrij shot map

The centre-back looks to stay central at corners and free-kicks which does help his potential for scoring - the back post runner either knocking it back across the box or by winning the first contact on a cross.

Cagliari centre-back Sebastiano Luperto scored from three shots in Lecce's last game, taking their total goals conceded from set-pieces to eight for the season. That is this second-highest in Serie A.

No side can boast more goals from these situations than Inter's ten - while they also possess the highest figure on the expected goals (xG) data here too (9.02).

Odds correct at 1420 GMT (24/01/25)


Football betting tips: Saturday selections

1pt Millwall to take the most corners vs Luton (12:30) at 9/4 (Sky Bet)

1pt Dominic Calvert-Lewin 3+ total shots in Brighton vs Everton (15:00) at 11/8 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

1pt Bochum 5+ corners vs Borussia Mönchengladbach (17:30) at 13/8 (Sky Bet)


Luton vs Millwall

Luton's appointment of Matt Bloomfield hasn't delivered the immediate impact they would have hoped for. A 0-0 draw with Preston was followed up by a 3-2 midweek loss at Oxford.

In Millwall, they face another side in questionable form with no win across their last six in the league.

I'm going to revisit what was ultimately an unsuccessful tip last weekend but one I believe still has potential here.

At 9/4, MILLWALL TO TAKE THE MOST CORNERS provides appeal for a couple of reasons.

The first of which is the likely game state of Luton being the favourites and potentially going ahead. They led twice but ultimately left empty-handed in their trip to Oxford.

Millwall flank attacks map

That game saw the hosts taking the most corners as they chased a way back in and Luton's draw with Preston saw them win an incredibly low corner count by a score of 3-1.

A look at Bloomfield's time at Wycombe shows how a change in approach could see their corners taken tally drop off significantly for the remainder of the season.

Despite being an attacking side who sat at the top of the League One table, the Chairboys were actually down in 15th for corners taken. That could well be down to their lack of crossing.

They ranked 20th for crosses attempted prior to his move. Millwall, on the other hand, haven't seen a change in their crosses attempted per game averages following Alex Neil's arrival - in fact, it's increased ever so slightly.

Even though it's still early into Bloomfield's spell at the hosts, I'm willing to back it based on the theory and the prices.

Odds correct at 0845 GMT (24/01/25)

https://m.skybet.com/football/money-back-as-cash-price-boost/money-back-as-cash-price-boost-sat-25th-jan/34973029?aff=688&dcmp=SL_ED_FOOTBALL_MBAC

Brighton vs Everton

While confidence may not be flowing through the Everton camp, there's certainly something to build upon following last week's 3-2 victory over Tottenham.

David Moyes' return has delivered positivity and a better way of playing. It's important we don't carried away in the very short term but I'd fancy the Toffees to have a better chance here than the odds suggest.

Brighton are good. Really good. They may well have been held back by draws but a three-game winning run in all competitions has put them back on track.

The best value comes in focusing on DOMINIC CALVERT-LEWIN though and the 11/8 price for the striker to have 3+ TOTAL SHOTS.

The striker's six shots in that win over Spurs was the most he's had all campaign, as was the 11 aerial duels he ended up winning. He was playing with confidence and deserved to end his four-month wait for a league goal.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin shot map

We have to be cautious not to get too carried away on the basis of one showing but it doesn't feel like a coincidence that a new manager has arrived and this is what we've seen across his 90 or so minutes of involvement.

Brighton are averaging 11.6 shots conceded per game - 10.3 in home games - which isn't the highest in the league by any stretch.

But it does mean the visitors should get chances to strike and this bet doesn't require any of those efforts to be on target. It's something Calvert-Lewin achieved in both games under Moyes.


Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bochum

This is going to be a tough sell, isn't it? Sky Sports Main Event gives us Manchester City vs Chelsea, go down a couple of channels and you'll get, erm, Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bochum.

Mönchengladbach sit 11th in the Bundesliga table with Bochum bottom - seven points adrift of safety.

This game does present a betting opportunity though and that comes in taking the 13/8 on BOCHUM 5+ CORNERS.

The Bundesliga's bottom club are still in the 'bottom half' when it comes to corners taken but game state could play a part here.

From Bochum's nine games on the road, they've conceded the first goal on six occasions. They also saw six corners against Union Berlin despite scoring first there.

The same figure came in their last away game - a 2-0 loss to Mainz - with six at Freiburg back in September. A third of their away games have seen them hit the six marker.

Game state is a factor but so too is their style of play. They rank seventh for crosses attempted in the Bundesliga which means some are inevitably deflected behind for corners.

At the prices and given the opposition, it's a bet.

Odds correct at 1025 GMT (24/01/25)


Football betting tips: Friday selections

1pt Denis Vavro to score anytime in Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel (19:30) at 14/1 (Sky Bet)

0.5pt Denis Vavro to score first in Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel (19:30) at 40/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt Cagliari 6+ corners vs Torino (19:45) at 11/4 (Sky Bet)

Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel

It's been a positive return to action for Wolfsburg following the winter break - two victories and a one-goal defeat to Bayern on their January record.

Friday's visit of Holstein Kiel gives them a great chance to return to winning ways as they've gained just two points from a possible 24 on the road this season.

Remarkably, one of those was against Bayer Leverkusen but they were heavily outshot in that contest and would have lost on another day.

Not only is it likely to be a mismatch on the scoreline but the same applies at set-piece situations. Wolfsburg have issues defending them but little issue when it comes to creating chances at corners and free-kicks.

A price of 14/1 is available on DENIS VAVRO TO SCORE ANYTIME, with a smaller stake on the 40s for THE FIRST GOAL providing appeal too.

The Slovakia centre-back has been shot-happy in their recent games. He had one effort against Bayern but it's the games either side of that winter break which are particularly eye-catching.

Denis Vavro shot map

Vavro saw three shots in away games at Hoffenheim and Freiburg with two and a goal in the home defeat to Borussia Dortmund.

Eight of his 13 league outings this season have returned at least one shot with two or more happening on four occasions. Kiel's recent games show that he should have chances.

Both Dortmund centre-backs posted a shot with the same applying to Freiburg - who combined for three - in their other game after the winter break.

Vavro also has a track record of trying his luck from distance. Given the game, I'll be taking him for his second of the league campaign.


Torino vs Cagliari

Friday's Serie A action takes us to Turin for a mid-table clash between Torino and Cagliari.

Wins have been hard to come by for both sides throughout the course of the campaign but the visitors have picked up form in recent weeks - two of their last three have returned maximum points.

I'll be staying clear of the match market as Torino seem to draw every week but there is value in the 11/4 on CAGLIARI 6+ CORNERS.

Cagliari sit fourth for corners taken in the Italian top-flight and their style of play is a factor behind this.

Cagliari flank attacks map

Only Lazio have attempted more crosses across all 20 teams this season, and with an average of only one in four being successful, they are seeing them deflected behind by the opposition defence.

The game state has also been a factor, particularly on the road. In their 10 away contests, Cagliari have conceded the first goal on eight occasions. They're often chasing a way back into the game.

Torino's home record against teams currently sat below them contains two wins and two draws. They've found the net first in those victories over Como and Monza.

Cagliari have also conceded first in each of their last four away. Even without the game state, the style they operate with should help them hit this target.


Odds correct at 1620 GMT (23/01/25) unless otherwise stated

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